81–90 of 289 posts
I feel like they are priming the pump with stuff like this...I guess it's time to hit the flush button on the Dow and suck all that "buy-n-hold" money outta the market, and start the cycle all over again.
Cynical? I guess but I call it like I see it.
People often note, like another comment here notes: > since 1960 there has been a US economic recession once every 5 to 10 years. The last one ended in 2009, 9 years ago This is an interesting line of thinking, but I think it's a mistake. We can use this fact itself and circumscribe some meta-thinking around it. Put the same fact another way, this is arguing that the 1960's started a brand new paradigm that was mater…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Predicting recession reliably 2-3 years in advance with 2 year window would be really good indicator.
DOW 2005: ~10,000 DOW 2007: ~13,000 DOW 2009: ~8,000 DOW 2009 (later): ~10,000 DOW 2011: ~12,500 A 2 year window of precision is completely useless
People often note, like another comment here notes: > since 1960 there has been a US economic recession once every 5 to 10 years. The last one ended in 2009, 9 years ago This is an interesting line of thinking, but I think it's a mistake. We can use this fact itself and circumscribe some meta-thinking around it. Put the same fact another way, this is arguing that the 1960's started a brand new paradigm that was mater…
And if capital flows into the stock market, not to keep pace with growth or to expropriate the standard rate of profit, but simply because it has nowhere else to go, then the natural outcome of this is overproduction. Which leads to a falling rate of profit. Which eventually means falling stock prices, as earnings and market cap are always linked over the long term (even for Amazon.com, which will have to start showing a profit when it moves from #8 to #2 on the Fortune 500 list).
As someone who (I'm guessing like a lot of others who post here) didn't really have any financial responsibilities during the .com bust and the real estate bust, it will be interesting to have a neck in the game this go around!
edit: I worked through both the dot-com and mortgage-backed security fraud crises. They were terrible.
People often note, like another comment here notes: > since 1960 there has been a US economic recession once every 5 to 10 years. The last one ended in 2009, 9 years ago This is an interesting line of thinking, but I think it's a mistake. We can use this fact itself and circumscribe some meta-thinking around it. Put the same fact another way, this is arguing that the 1960's started a brand new paradigm that was mater…
A nice, 500 page overview: https://press.princeton.edu/titles/8973.html
People often note, like another comment here notes: > since 1960 there has been a US economic recession once every 5 to 10 years. The last one ended in 2009, 9 years ago This is an interesting line of thinking, but I think it's a mistake. We can use this fact itself and circumscribe some meta-thinking around it. Put the same fact another way, this is arguing that the 1960's started a brand new paradigm that was mater…
Although faster cycles might also mean faster adaptation, soooo.
An article from 2005 with the same prediction: http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/27/news/economy/inverted_yield_... The recession didn't happen until 2-3 years after that, making me question the utility of such predictions. "A recession will happen - eventually" is about as useful as predicting your own eventual demise.
A signal with a 3 years error is actually useful here. If the signal is instead "there will be something in 2-3 years", that's instead a great signal.