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A world of free movement would be $78T richer

economist.com

131–140 of 402 posts

Re: A world of free movement would be $78T richer

#131
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once there was a time in Europe when every fief couldn't be more happy to get more subjects for free, and the usual travel restriction was on leaving your place, not moving to a new one. It was the first world war that changed everything. Things like migration control, passports, visas, formal institute of citizenship, all traces to the time when the imaginary no. 1 boogyman was not Ben Laden and "angry Arab guys," b…

This sounds like the kind of interesting perspective one picks up from a good book or podcast series. Do you have one to recommend on this subject?

Well, this is all my own, near life long, research: what is power, how modern state came to be, and how one can manipulate it.

Few interesting factoids from it:

Did you know that theocracy vs bureaucracy was not a decided topic in Europe until mid 19 century?

It was a single letter of a British envoy to China that shocked the crown so much as for it to institute the His Majesty Civil Service modelled after Chinese model of professional institute of career bureaucrats. Something that is traced to first Chinese states in known history.

My grandpa said that every modern state is made by "the 3 grave sins of Chinese people:" 1. Invention of paper, 2. Invention of money, 3. Invention of gunpowder. Indeed, without those there will be no career bureaucrats, no central banks, no conscript armies, and no modern state.

And on Prussians, rulers of the old Europe were not as much afraid of Prussian people themselves, than the spread of ideological "Prusianness." Today, the most relevant comparison to them are members of Ikhvan ul Muslimin in the middle east, and how Arab gerantocracy, and nobility is afraid of them as fire.

Just as with Prussia, Qatar is not as scare to Arab rulers than "Qatariness" - the virulent Qatari identity. An identity of people who are not afraid to demand their rulers to be rightful, and reward them with great loyalty for that.

Re: A world of free movement would be $78T richer

#132
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People could (and probably would) still live in communities with common cultural and religious ties, even in a world without national borders. And, in this world of international borders, people from disparate backgrounds manage to immigrate and integrate just fine. National boundaries don't really map to the borders of cultural and religious identity (as can be readily seen in the Middle East), so your argument here…

> National boundaries don't really map to the borders of cultural and religious identity (as can be readily seen in the Middle East), so your argument here [..] doesn't seem well supported. That is because we already let immigration happen. And it supports my thesis really well, as this immigration lead to severe problems amongst groups of different cultural backgrounds. > People could (and probably would) still live…

>That is because we already let immigration happen

It's also because national boundaries tend to be more about resource allocation and political necessity than the preservation of culture or religion. Look at the problems caused by the British Empire carving up the Middle East after World War 1.

Now perhaps you might argue the national borders there should correspond more to local tribal and cultural identity (and maybe they should) but the point is they don't, and they rarely do anywhere.

>And it supports my thesis really well, as this immigration lead to severe problems amongst groups of different cultural backgrounds.

At one time, Americans felt that Irish and Chinese immigrants could never properly integrate... to say nothing about free Africans. Yet all of those groups have been unambiguously integrated.

I work around Indian and Middle Eastern immigrants. Hindus and Muslims. It's remarkable how unremarkable they are given how incompatible "Western culture" is supposed to be to them. There aren't always "severe problems" with immigrants from different cultural backgrounds. Sometimes there are, yes, but it isn't a rule of nature.

>Those groups living clustered together isn't integration but segregation.

Those aren't boolean states. Someone can maintain a connection to their heritage while still being a part of greater society.

Re: A world of free movement would be $78T richer

#133
ahh yes, open the borders and import every type of third worlder into western countries for the sake of profiting over cheap labor... Let us forget about the clash in cultures, and how unrestricted immigration leaves the native population in a worse off state by rising housing prices, demographic replacement and stagnant wages. I have experienced first hand the effects of such policies here in California. This article is the equivalent of selling your lung to afford a kidney.

Also as a side note, Why is it that more developed nations have to find solutions for failed states by re-homing the population which voted for those same policies instead of leaving them to fight and improve the conditions in their own countries. Absolute globalist non sense.

Re: A world of free movement would be $78T richer

#134
post #3

>"A world of free movement would be $78 trillion richer" ...A world where everyone's mother is a prostitute would be considerably more economically active. Its a shame the economy is seen as a end rather than a means.

Someone quoted something on this site a while ago to the effect of "a measure that becomes a goal is no longer a good measure"

That’s known as Goodhart's law.

Re: A world of free movement would be $78T richer

#135
$78T for 8G humans are roughly $10,000 per person.

If this is per month then its an interesting idea. But if this is per year then there is no incentive for the Western citizens to open their borders. Average income is about $30,000 per year right now. If the job market is flooded with workers then there is no way that people will keep on earning that much. Additionally, the housing market will explode and people who rent their homes will have to move.

I wouldn't be surprised if opening all borders would lead to even bigger gains. After all, China's source of income is their huge pool of workers. But I don't think that $78T profits are a good argument to convince the West to open its borders.

Re: A world of free movement would be $78T richer

#136
post #12

This an interesting article because it reframes current immigration discussions from humanitarian issues to economic ones. I'd like to see more modelling on wage depression to see why this wouldn't have a widespread negative impact. Additionally this seems like a weird point: >Unskilled migrants care for babies or the elderly, thus freeing the native-born to do more lucrative work. If lucrative work were available, w…

>Unskilled migrants care for babies or the elderly, thus freeing the native-born to do more lucrative work.

I'm sure the same argument was made in favor of slavery way back when it was still legal. After all, slaveowners were free to pursue more meaningful things while their slaves were collapsing of heat exhaustion and malnutrition while working on the plantation.

Illegal immigrants often find "employment" at below minimum wage, and in inhumane working conditions, because otherwise what's the reason to hire them over locals? They're also more likely to be abused or mistreated, because what are you gonna do, go to the police?

A less harsh variant of this often happens with H1Bs, which I know all too well because I was an H1B myself 15 years ago: you get hired for a job that's way below your skill/pay level, and then you keep your mouth shut until you get a green card, which for some nationalities takes a decade or more. Glorified indentured servitude. If you lose your job - GTFO of the country in 2 weeks. Doesn't matter if you have a child or whatever, GTFO anyway.

It boggles the mind that people could be in favor of illegal immigration and H1B abuse, especially if these same people are in favor of worker rights and unionization.

Re: A world of free movement would be $78T richer

#137
post #78

One could argue that this was tried on a micro scale with the EU. While there is an argument to be made that it did bring some economic growth but nothing near as close to the growth advertised by the economist.

How would you feel about all states in the US instituting their own immigration controls? Would there be a negative effect on the US economy if moving from New Jersey to New York required lengthy visa applications and waits for green cards?

Re: A world of free movement would be $78T richer

#138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A world where we printed $78 trillion dollars and gave it out to whomever would also be $78 trillion dollars richer.

That isn't how it works. Inflation is a thing.

No idea why this is getting downvoted, as you're entirely correct (obviously). OP is talking about real economic growth as massive amounts of wealth are created. A change in the money supply would create nominal growth, but no change in the underlying quantity of wealth.

For those confused as to the difference between the two, reread pg's essay on How to Make Wealth. http://www.paulgraham.com/wealth.html

Re: A world of free movement would be $78T richer

#139

after visiting 52 countries i came to the same conclusion, it is not like we are not implicitly sharing the space and all our physical objects with everyone else by proxy of the same space encapsulating them and their presence on one planet, nobody is taking their own personal lawnmower off the planet just yet... we are so indoctrinated that we fail to see that at the physical level everything is shared and everythin…

I don't know if I follow. Are you saying you've travelled to 52 different countries and found that they all exist on the same planet populated by a species devoid of interplanetary travel and that they have set up a system of artificial geographical barriers to control the distribution resources and movement of individuals of the species?

Re: A world of free movement would be $78T richer

#140
At least they use "Potentially" in the subtitle, sheesh.

"If we had open borders we'd be $X trillion richer" is silly. It makes the huge assumption that institutions would stay the same, or inexplicably trend better everywhere, instead of worse. There is no thesis for why this is so, it is hand-waved here.

> Suddenly, they can join a labour market with ample capital, efficient firms and a predictable legal system.

This should prompt some navel gazing about:

* Why some countries succeed in building institutions and what is different about them.

* Why some countries used to have good institutions and now have dysfunctional ones. (Like say, Argentina, Lebanon, etc)

They might even learn something about why free movement isn't common.

> A Nigerian in the United States cannot be enslaved by the Islamists of Boko Haram.

The author has almost figured it out.

> If lots of people migrated from war-torn Syria, gangster-plagued Guatemala or chaotic Congo, would they bring mayhem with them? It is an understandable fear (and one that anti-immigrant politicians play on), but there is little besides conjecture and anecdotal evidence to support it.

Okay, he hasn't quite.

The planet is awash with dysfunctional institutions clawing away at function and semi-functional ones. Just going off of his Boko Haram example, the South Thailand Islamic insurgency is 13 years and counting of fighting from Muslim separatists. The Myanmar Islamic insurgency has been going on for 70 years and counting. The Somali civil war has been ongoing for my whole life, the Nigerian insurgencies over the years are numerous and ongoing, boko is just a continuation. I'm sure you know the story of other countries, weary reader.

So why isn't the thesis "A world of free movement would spawn a new era of separatists"? Crazy, yes, but at least we have some precedent for it as a nonsense headline.

No discussion of why nations differ in institutional quality is one thing, but no explanation of why the good-institution countries wouldn't degrade is another. As Taleb says, Economists don't seem to understand things that move.

~~~

A little tangential, but one of the things I think is under-discussed, is what happens to the places where people mass migrate from.

Recently there has been massive brain drain from Southern & Eastern Europe to West: Half of Romania's doctors left between 2009 and 2015: http://www.politico.eu/article/doctors-nurses-migration-heal...

In Venezuela, 40% of recent medical school graduates have left. Medicine shortage + lack of physicians = countrywide health crisis: https://panampost.com/sabrina-martin/2017/12/12/venezuela-he...

Other countries, like Lebanon after its civil war, are similar. Syria might end up similarly, I don't know.

It is hard to fault people moving en masse for a better life, but it further solidifies that the places they leave behind will continue to be governed by the looney bin for the decades to come. I wish there was a more thinking about solutions to this problem, and less glee at the capital class counting chips over the obverse.

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