Live data from Hacker News

A world of free movement would be $78T richer

economist.com

41–50 of 402 posts

Re: A world of free movement would be $78T richer

#41
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you tried getting adequate and affordable child care? Fortunately our kids don't need it any more. It hugely restricts available options. Either from hours available, lengthy waiting lists or simply finding that after paying childcare work is no longer making economic sense.

Hmm, seems like there may have been a reason for the old traditions after all. The Economist's point is weird/wrong for another reason. Immigrant women have babies too. They can't be both looking after their own children and looking after other people's simultaneously. Expensive childcare doesn't seem like the kind of problem you can permanently fix by just allowing tons of immigration from third world countries.

>They can't be both looking after their own children and looking after other people's simultaneously

Why not?

Re: A world of free movement would be $78T richer

#42
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hmm, seems like there may have been a reason for the old traditions after all. The Economist's point is weird/wrong for another reason. Immigrant women have babies too. They can't be both looking after their own children and looking after other people's simultaneously. Expensive childcare doesn't seem like the kind of problem you can permanently fix by just allowing tons of immigration from third world countries.

I guess you’d be surprised by reality buddy, because that’s exactly how my nanny did it when I grew up...she took care of her two kids and me at the same time...it’s like people who have three kids, totally possible and being done everywhere.

[deleted]

Re: A world of free movement would be $78T richer

#43

The immediate goal of everyone in this country should be to open the borders and open trade. There is no excuse. Borders serve no useful purpose in a globalized economy. Can you imagine how terrible it would be if the states had hard borders between them? People act like having open borders mean invading marauders of foreigners, but did everyone from Ohio invade Maryland because of the open borders the states have? I…

I'm sure there are plenty of people who would be happy to ban Californians from moving into their state

Re: A world of free movement would be $78T richer

#44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is... literally the opposite of reality. Did you forget a /s?

A global race to the bottom is what the Economist, and its owners the Rothschilds, want. An atomized replaceable-cog society made up on indistinguishable consumer units.

[deleted]

Re: A world of free movement would be $78T richer

#45
This article seems symptomatic of a general decline in the quality of The Economist. I used to be a subscriber but there was a noticeable sharp drop some time ago, I think when Micklethwaite stepped down as editor, and things seem to have got worse since. Shoddy thinking, bizarre arguments and extremist conclusions seem more common than they used to be.

Firstly, the core thesis of the argument is that merely by moving to a richer country, people become automatically more productive:

> Workers become far more productive when they move from a poor country to a rich one. Suddenly, they can join a labour market with ample capital, efficient firms and a predictable legal system. Those who used to scrape a living from the soil with a wooden hoe start driving tractors. Those who once made mud bricks by hand start working with cranes and mechanical diggers

This can only be described as some sort of fantasy. People who have spent their lives making mud bricks by hand don't suddenly become qualified crane operators by mere virtue of migrating to a developed country. They need the same training any native born person would, but they also need to learn the local language and customs too.

Indeed, a common effect of mass immigration is that mechanical diggers and cranes are less used, because why buy expensive automated machinery when labour is nearly free?

A clear counterpoint is the state of Germany. Over 1 million migrants from Africa and the ME let in with no border controls worth talking about. Did they all immediately become high earning crane operators. No. Aydan Özoğuz, commissioner for immigration, refugees and integration, told the Financial Times that only a quarter to a third of the newcomers would enter the labour market over the next five years, and “for many others we will need up to 10”.

The Institute for Employment Research (IAB) found only 45 per cent of Syrian refugees in Germany have a school-leaving certificate and 23 per cent a college degree.

Statistics from the Federal Labour Agency show the employment rate among refugees stands at just 17 per cent.

The Economist also seems to struggle with the basics of why some countries do better than others. They do sort of comprehend the shape of the problem:

> On the contrary, the reason why migration is so attractive is that some countries are well-run and others, abysmally so.

> It is very hard to transfer Canadian institutions to Cambodia, but quite straightforward for a Cambodian family to fly to Canada.

Hmmm. So. Some countries are run abysmally, and others are well run. Why is that? The Economist acts like good governance is a feature of geography, something the Canadians dig out of the ground. But it's not, government is people, so presumably the people in those countries aren't very good at building wealthy societies. For example their cultures frequently turn a blind eye to graft, dictatorship is common, installing relatives in government posts is expected, work gets done slowly or not at all, votes are seen as things useful to sell for a bit more income and so on.

So what happens if all those people simply move to another country? Does their culture change overnight? And if not, what makes The Economist so sure that the bad administration and poverty those people were trying to escape won't just follow them to the west?

This problem is not theoretical or simply scaremongering. The sad tale of Lutfur Rahman is a warning sign of what can go wrong when large numbers of people settle in the west from parts of the world where western values are not well established - they don't simply change overnight and instead western political systems start to look like third world countries too:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lutfur_Rahman_(politician)#Cor...

Re: A world of free movement would be $78T richer

#46
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

people looking after their own children are: 1. providing good child care 2. adding value

> 2. Adding value Don’t you think that a PhD in their thirties would add more value if they instead focused on their studies subject?

If the marginal income tax rates were lower sure, but once you add in how much gets taken off the top by the government and how much child care costs, it really doesn't justify most jobs that make less than 6 figures.

Re: A world of free movement would be $78T richer

#47

The immediate goal of everyone in this country should be to open the borders and open trade. There is no excuse. Borders serve no useful purpose in a globalized economy. Can you imagine how terrible it would be if the states had hard borders between them? People act like having open borders mean invading marauders of foreigners, but did everyone from Ohio invade Maryland because of the open borders the states have? I…

You know we tried this during the Mexican-American war. It turns out the Mexicans are still pretty sore about this.

If borders were a purely economic construct I might agree with you. However, they aren't, not even primarily. Remove modern notions of economics, look into deep history, and borders still exist.

As for Mrs. Clinton, she dreamed she could be President twice. We all know how that worked out for her and unfortunately us.

Re: A world of free movement would be $78T richer

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can they if they have to work full time to take care of their babies? Part of the problem with today's economy is that it's basically impossible for a middle-class woman to have a child and work. There needs to be a large population of unskilled laborers to do these kinds of low-level jobs that a person with a college degree won't do. This is why data shows areas with a large population of lower-class have a high…

Your model strongly predicts that fertility of preexisting natives would be higher in areas with more unskilled immigrants. The opposite is true, and the effect is not small. It is safe to reject your model. Moreover, if you do not adjust your beliefs in response to contrary evidence, it is appropriate to presume that you are arguing in bad faith rather than trying to figure out the truth, and dismiss everything else…

Your model strongly predicts that fertility of preexisting natives would be higher in areas with more unskilled immigrants. The opposite is true, and the effect is not small.

It seems like you have a lot of confounding variables to work through to make this case with such confidence, if you have research that makes this case I would like to see links to it.

Re: A world of free movement would be $78T richer

#49
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you tried getting adequate and affordable child care? Fortunately our kids don't need it any more. It hugely restricts available options. Either from hours available, lengthy waiting lists or simply finding that after paying childcare work is no longer making economic sense.

Hmm, seems like there may have been a reason for the old traditions after all. The Economist's point is weird/wrong for another reason. Immigrant women have babies too. They can't be both looking after their own children and looking after other people's simultaneously. Expensive childcare doesn't seem like the kind of problem you can permanently fix by just allowing tons of immigration from third world countries.

I've typically seen in the developing world that the nanny looks after her kids as well, but families tend to prefer childless nannies for obvious reasons. Very often in such cases the host family will help with some of the child related expenses of the nanny. Much like some kind of communal family.

Re: A world of free movement would be $78T richer

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can they if they have to work full time to take care of their babies? Part of the problem with today's economy is that it's basically impossible for a middle-class woman to have a child and work. There needs to be a large population of unskilled laborers to do these kinds of low-level jobs that a person with a college degree won't do. This is why data shows areas with a large population of lower-class have a high…

Your model strongly predicts that fertility of preexisting natives would be higher in areas with more unskilled immigrants. The opposite is true, and the effect is not small. It is safe to reject your model. Moreover, if you do not adjust your beliefs in response to contrary evidence, it is appropriate to presume that you are arguing in bad faith rather than trying to figure out the truth, and dismiss everything else…

Data shows the opposite of what you say. I guess that means you are arguing in bad faith?
Post reply on HN