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The myth of revealed preference for suburbs

cityobservatory.org

51–60 of 143 posts

Re: The myth of revealed preference for suburbs

#51
There are several severe issues with the study.

The first is confusing want with what you're culturally conditioned to say based on style of question. We don't know how the questions were led or if they attempted to be neutral, they made a huge logical leap from asking people what they want to declaring thats what they actually want, real world doesn't work that way. We know from prior propaganda issues that people can be led to claim almost anything, when questioned correctly to lead to it. Its a universal part of human existence that what people are socialized to say to get along, generally has nothing to do with what they'll actually want (or do) in private or semi-private, which also generally has nothing to do with whats best for them (and good luck finding a fair and unbiased judge of whats best for them, LOL). The study actually abstracts to "I know from intensive propaganda my whole life that a good person would say they want X, therefore I'll say I want X, but I actually want and will execute plan Y". What could be more pithy than "do as I say not as I do?" The study doesn't even scratch the surface of "what should they do" which is a totally orthogonal third dimension. The study is willfully and intentionally ignoring a major component of human psychology to push a propaganda point; this really does not look good at all.

To help non USA people, there's a large aspect of group affinity and identification going on. Essentially a non-metaphysical religion, complete with proselytizers and those who define whats holy and who is or is not. So for the "new urbanists" for over half a century, fervent belief in returning to the cities after white flight from the 60s race riots is the definition of what a good person is, in a simplistic 1 to 1 mapping. Trying to argue rational logic merely strengthens their beliefs, like trying to reason about fossil records with a creationist Christian. If your worldview is defining being a good person as holding a set of beliefs X, Y, Z, regardless if those are good or terrible ideas, then someone trying the atheistic rational argument against those beliefs "just think about it", well, a good person would NOT think about it, they would believe, wouldn't they? That type of argument will just strengthen the belief set; look here is a bad person who is defined as bad by not having matching beliefs, being bad by making sacrilegious statements, why look how great my beliefs must be? People who don't understand this try to interact with urbanists on a rational level which certainly doesn't work. No Christian ever lost their faith by a pagan nostalgia along the lines of "My childhood as a pagan was not so bad, I don't understand the hate". Likewise its a waste of time to tell an urbanist that suburbs are not that bad why all the propaganda. You'd have better luck trying to convert a Christian Fundamentalist by telling them that Satan guy gets a lot of bad press but he's not all bad all. Trying to talk a urbanist out of the city is literally on a psychological level like trying to talk a devoted missionary out of going on a mission. It is the same thought process. Please don't waste everyone's time trying to convert them, merely wish them well on their pilgrimage and hope they survive, etc.

Everyone on both sides should understand and accept the group affinity issue. There is absolutely no moral, ethical, medical, technological, or rational argument that black tennis shoes are worse or better than white tennis shoes. None the less, the cool kids have proclaimed one or the other is cool this year and the only choice you have in the issue, the only reason for discussing it anywhere including here on HN, is to declare your group affinity with the cool kids for todays fad, or try to be that cool apostate rebelling against "the man", or just be confused about the social dynamics of the whole thing and make the huge mistake of thinking the discussion is actually about sneakers or ethics or anything other than declaring your allegiance or opposition or cluelessness. Are tattoos rebellious or conformist today? Well, fundamentally they're neither, they're art ink on skin. If the argument is about enforcement of conformity, such as devout belief in new urbanism, don't get in weird side arguments about tattoo ink toxicity or stretch marks, thats totally not the point of the discussion. This incredibly boring topic boils down to are you an new urbanist conformist or a rebellious suburbanite, and the only thing that matters is the conformity or rebellion. Forest for the trees and all that.

If you can't tell I think "new urbanist" stories are pointless and should probably be globally banned on HN, they're just trash, fibrous filler, the low formaldehyde particle board of furniture, as a discussion topic, but others disagree, sometimes with strong arguments that I admit may be strong but none the less disagree with. So the article is this weeks two minutes hate on the burbs, oh well, whatevs.

Re: The myth of revealed preference for suburbs

#52

Yet another article claiming that I, every member of my family, and all of my friends don’t actually want to live in our horrible susburbs. It’s not possible that we actually love it here, that we like the clean air, wide open spaces, huge yards, non-crowded downtown, small family friendly parades, and our rodeo. Nope, we’re all just lying to ourselves and really want to love in a cramped arcology.

That doesn't sound like a suburb to me, it sounds like a town. The suburbs I'm familiar with don't have a downtown to be non-crowded or in which to have a small family friendly parade. I like towns too, but the ones where I live are still expensive akin to the cities in the area, whereas the non-town residential + strip mall only suburbs are where it is cheaper to live.

Re: The myth of revealed preference for suburbs

#53
post #37
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a counterexample to the article, not the person you are replying to, right? In fact that's such a strong counterexample to the article you can basically discount it entirely. > will not build denser properties because they’re riskier. Or because people don't want them. What's riskier about them?

I commented just before you, so you probably didn't see it. But Houston mandates parking minumum, setbacks of houses, very wide roads, and long blocks. Those are all pro-sprawl. My dense, walkable neighbourhood in Montreal would be illegal in Houston. https://marketurbanism.com/2016/09/19/how-houston-regulates-...

Also, nobody wants to walk in Houston. AC is required to survive there.

Re: The myth of revealed preference for suburbs

#54
I'm not sure what this article is trying to prove. They say that local ordinances should follow the demands of the citizens, but then use a case where the auto-oriented fans have a majority over the pedestrian-friendly fans, which in the fun world of two-choice democracy means their demands are overridden.

Re: The myth of revealed preference for suburbs

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe the article has failed to realize that "self-reporting" evidence is weaker than actions, not stronger. If you listen to the Freakonomics podcast for any length of time, you would realize that the weakest, most likely to not really be true, form of evidence is self-reporting. When self-reporting/answering surveys, people commonly give the answer they are "expected" to give. The actions then reveal their real…

OK, so tell me why housing prices in high-density cities are significantly higher than in suburbs. Isn't that a revealed preference?

Massive demographic and socioeconomic class differences.

I worked in a city where only the very richest people could live in the very expensive high-density areas. A tiny condo being perhaps four times the cost of my very large luxurious suburban house, maybe ten times the cost of a cheap suburban house. They had experimented generations ago with high-density poor people housing; that was not exactly paradise for anyone involved, so high density is only approved if the rent will be over $3000/mo otherwise the police budget cannot handle the crime issues. There is a self imposed demographic separation where only wealthy live in the penthouses therefore being wealthy the prices charged to fit their budgets are high. Of course there are maybe 1000 suburbanites for every CEO in the nicest five million dollar penthouse. And the population of the burbs combined is approximately 20 times the population of the high density areas. Its possible to cheat such that you are "in the city" but in a tiny house near the dangerous part of town that hasn't been gentrified into unaffordable condos... yet. But I'm not counting SFRs as "high density urban" because its basically substandard suburban lifestyle.

Re: The myth of revealed preference for suburbs

#56
post #2

>If so many people live in suburbs, it must be because that’s what they prefer, right? But the evidence is to the contrary. This article makes its point from the book "Zoned Out" (2005.) Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the argument is that zoning policies make suburban sprawl, not free markets. They argue that if zoning restrictions were lifted and development responded to free market forces, higher density hous…

It is also culture that plays a big part.

I've lived in very high density housing in Japan (20 floor manshion type apartment) and medium density in US (2 level apartment).

Higher density in Japan is much more pleasant due to the culture of being considerate of others.

If I have to live in the US, I will choose suburbia for that reason.

Re: The myth of revealed preference for suburbs

#57
post #48

Yet another article claiming that I, every member of my family, and all of my friends don’t actually want to live in our horrible susburbs. It’s not possible that we actually love it here, that we like the clean air, wide open spaces, huge yards, non-crowded downtown, small family friendly parades, and our rodeo. Nope, we’re all just lying to ourselves and really want to love in a cramped arcology.

> It’s not possible that we actually love it here, that we like the clean air, wide open spaces, huge yards, non-crowded downtown, small family friendly parades, and our rodeo. Nobody wants to outlaw suburbs and single-family homes with huge yards and setbacks via zoning fiat, people want other options to not be outright illegal . I'm sincerely sure you enjoy living where you do, we're just asking for such preference…

The best standard HN automobile analogy would be that the average teenage boy knows Ferraris are the coolest car. Surely that would win every poll of the "right" way to answer that question of what car is the correct car to drive. Yet its incredibly unusual for all but the very wealthiest to give their teenage son a Ferrari as their first car. Everyone knows they should say we need to outlaw teen boy ownership of worn out unreliable rusty beater cars for all kinds of health and safety reasons, but no one wants that law actually passed, especially not the teenage boys. If you can't afford a Ferrari for yourself or your teen son, you're just not cool, not in the cool driver club at all. God forbid you say in public that you want a nice boring reliable commuter car instead of a Ferrari, you know, like most people very successfully drive. But, maybe that is exactly a good way to live, just a very bad thing to say in public? Proven successful via vast population migration to where its possible and successful over many decades. Sure people will wail away at how boring and unexciting that broke down old F150 was or that rusty Dodge Omni and everyone should be forced to buy Ferraris, and thats why the cool kids say Ferraris are teh coolest, but it doesn't really MEAN anything in actual lifestyle, in what it means to live a good life. Sure, OK whatever, we should all buy Ferraris, now get off my back, because I gotta get on with real life, and go drive the Yaris or Sienna tomorrow.

Re: The myth of revealed preference for suburbs

#58

What a load, I've never been to a city that wasn't a disgusting concrete nightmare. God forbid you want to raise kids, say goodbye to playing outside. I'll take my cozy yard and breathable air, thanks

Millions of children grow up in cities (in apartments, no less!) and they turn out just fine.

Re: The myth of revealed preference for suburbs

#59

Yet another article claiming that I, every member of my family, and all of my friends don’t actually want to live in our horrible susburbs. It’s not possible that we actually love it here, that we like the clean air, wide open spaces, huge yards, non-crowded downtown, small family friendly parades, and our rodeo. Nope, we’re all just lying to ourselves and really want to love in a cramped arcology.

That doesn't sound like a suburb to me, it sounds like a town. The suburbs I'm familiar with don't have a downtown to be non-crowded or in which to have a small family friendly parade. I like towns too, but the ones where I live are still expensive akin to the cities in the area, whereas the non-town residential + strip mall only suburbs are where it is cheaper to live.

You’re not living in or visiting the same suburbs I am I guess...

Re: The myth of revealed preference for suburbs

#60
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I commented just before you, so you probably didn't see it. But Houston mandates parking minumum, setbacks of houses, very wide roads, and long blocks. Those are all pro-sprawl. My dense, walkable neighbourhood in Montreal would be illegal in Houston. https://marketurbanism.com/2016/09/19/how-houston-regulates-...

Also, nobody wants to walk in Houston. AC is required to survive there.

Perhaps if buildings were a bit taller with people and businesses closer, you'd require less walking and it would be spent more in the shade.
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