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Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

nytimes.com

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Re: Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

#21

Post by tooltalk »

lsiq wrote: post #6

Considering the two sticks of Micron RAM I purchased in mid 2016 have appreciated 2-3x value, I don't have much sympathy for the big three DRAM producers. There's a reason the Chinese are looking so longingly at their lunch.

Micron and other DRAM producers were losing money due to DRAM gluts two years ago. That discouraged capacity investment and, as many insiders had predicted, it led to eventually higher price today.

Sure, you got bargain at their expense two years ago and now everyone is complaining about the higher cost of DRAM today. But that still doesn't justify IP theft.

Re: Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

#22

Post by avmich »

krapht wrote: post #7
RamshackleJ wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stealing IP mostly helps manufacturing, It doesn't really help innovation. If they want to build up their semiconductor industry they need to steal the people who are creating IP, which is kinda the opposite of what is happening. the culture that creates new tech is something that china can't steal and it can't replicate it without giving up authoritarian rule.

People write this glibly without understanding history. Soviet Russia made great leaps in science and technology where it was a national priority. You can have academic freedom in most scientific disciplines without the political freedom to criticize the government.

Soviet Russia had a rather different trajectory than China. By the 1917 Russia had significant ties with Europe, which helped both economically and scientifically. Having good pre-revolution scientific schools helped to maintain the lead in hard sciences - military tech like planes and artillery. Then achievements were also demonstrated in rockets and space (up to orbital stations), nuclear area (competing program for nuclear power plants, thermonuclear weaponry, particle accelerators), quantum physics (e.g. lasers), computers and material science (friction welding and Al-Li alloys come to mind as examples).

It could be possible to maintain lower level of life comfort while keeping the "academic part" competitive, if the world outside USSR wouldn't demonstrate that a better life is possible. So, I think for some time USSR could maintain the lead, which it did, but then it wasn't enough.

China has tremendous advantage in number of people - 4x compared to USSR - and way better economical system, but disadvantage in scientific schools traditions (which it tries - up to a point - to improve) and similar problems with freedoms. Improving scientific level takes time and may lead to conflicts with societal limitations. China may have some years - or even decades - before such problems will become critical.

Re: Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

#23

Post by RamshackleJ »

jacquesm wrote: post #14
RamshackleJ wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stealing IP mostly helps manufacturing, It doesn't really help innovation. If they want to build up their semiconductor industry they need to steal the people who are creating IP, which is kinda the opposite of what is happening. the culture that creates new tech is something that china can't steal and it can't replicate it without giving up authoritarian rule.

Stealing IP definitely helps innovation. To get to the innovation stage you first need to reach parity. There is no faster way to reaching parity than to steal IP. As for the "the culture that creates new tech is something that china can't steal and it can't replicate it without giving up authoritarian rule", that's nonsense that would have found an audience in the 1950's or so when talking about Russia, but it reall…

I disagree with your opinions and your characterization of my argument. I didn't say people will not think about technological problems.

Despite the incredible amount of good the party has done for the people of china they are still an authoritarian regime. I don't think authoritarian regimes are good at fostering innovation.

Re: Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

#24

Post by lovich »

RamshackleJ wrote: post #23
jacquesm wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stealing IP definitely helps innovation. To get to the innovation stage you first need to reach parity. There is no faster way to reaching parity than to steal IP. As for the "the culture that creates new tech is something that china can't steal and it can't replicate it without giving up authoritarian rule", that's nonsense that would have found an audience in the 1950's or so when talking about Russia, but it reall…

I disagree with your opinions and your characterization of my argument. I didn't say people will not think about technological problems. Despite the incredible amount of good the party has done for the people of china they are still an authoritarian regime. I don't think authoritarian regimes are good at fostering innovation.

They've got such a large population they just need to concentrate a relatively small section where they have looser rules and it would work as an engine for them much like SF does for the US. Look at cities like Shenzhen

Re: Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

#25

Post by tooltalk »

crb002 wrote: post #3

DOD would have way more cost effective spending ditching the F-35 flying turkey and buying the IP for TSMC, and moving US fab to Virginia/Austin.

can't read through the paywall, but what's TSMC got to do with it?

Intel, Micron, GlobFo and Samsung all have fab capacity in the US.

Re: Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

#26

Post by baybal2 »

genericone wrote: post #17

I mentioned this in a previous comment I made: "It's a very secret industry, and getting even tighter now since China has been blocked from acquiring the latest semiconductor technology. China has so far invested over $40 billion in boosting their chip-making abilities, to acquire capital, IP, and knowledge-workers. Given their history of borrowing technology from other countries without attribution, if I were at the…

>China has so far invested over $40 billion in boosting their chip-making abilities, to acquire capital, IP, and knowledge-workers.

There is a rumour going that the ministry of commerce has been given a war chest of ~$140B+ to establish self sufficient semiconductor industry in China. I can guess that those $40B is just a part of it that was spent on direct funding of their chipmakers. Another big part probably goes to "one day funds" like Canyon Bridge Capital that appear out of nowhere with few billion bucks just to disappear a year later when they are done buying a target company.

Re: Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

#27

Post by baybal2 »

tooltalk wrote: post #21
lsiq wrote: post #6

Considering the two sticks of Micron RAM I purchased in mid 2016 have appreciated 2-3x value, I don't have much sympathy for the big three DRAM producers. There's a reason the Chinese are looking so longingly at their lunch.

Micron and other DRAM producers were losing money due to DRAM gluts two years ago. That discouraged capacity investment and, as many insiders had predicted, it led to eventually higher price today. Sure, you got bargain at their expense two years ago and now everyone is complaining about the higher cost of DRAM today. But that still doesn't justify IP theft.

DRAM makers make $10k per platter. A single fab pops 20k - 30k complete wafers a month, and each top tier maker has 4 to 6 of them. Thought, all makers are working at only 60 to 70 percent capacity now.

You can guess, they are plump with money, and MOFCOM officials naturally want to communize some part of this money pile.

Re: Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

#28

Post by the-dude »

gaius wrote: post #10
krapht wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People write this glibly without understanding history. Soviet Russia made great leaps in science and technology where it was a national priority. You can have academic freedom in most scientific disciplines without the political freedom to criticize the government.

There is a good book Stalin and the Soviet Science Wars about this. Imagine the dilemma: you are a nuclear physicist and Lenin says that atoms are indivisible. What do you do? (This really happened)

You fuse two atoms.

Re: Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

#29

Post by gaius »

the-dude wrote: post #28
gaius wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a good book Stalin and the Soviet Science Wars about this. Imagine the dilemma: you are a nuclear physicist and Lenin says that atoms are indivisible. What do you do? (This really happened)

You fuse two atoms.

You look Stalin in the eye and tell him he has to choose between Marxism-Leninism and having an atom bomb...

Re: Inside a Heist of American Chip Designs, as China Bids for Tech Power

#30

Post by chollida1 »

baybal2 wrote: post #27
tooltalk wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Micron and other DRAM producers were losing money due to DRAM gluts two years ago. That discouraged capacity investment and, as many insiders had predicted, it led to eventually higher price today. Sure, you got bargain at their expense two years ago and now everyone is complaining about the higher cost of DRAM today. But that still doesn't justify IP theft.

DRAM makers make $10k per platter. A single fab pops 20k - 30k complete wafers a month, and each top tier maker has 4 to 6 of them. Thought, all makers are working at only 60 to 70 percent capacity now. You can guess, they are plump with money, and MOFCOM officials naturally want to communize some part of this money pile.

Is your math really right?

> DRAM makers make $10k per platter. A single line pops out 40k a month, a single fab has 20+ lines, a fab complex has up to 8 fabs. Each DRAM maker has few fab complexes.

If I do this I get 10,000 * 40,000 * 20 * 8 which is $64 Billion.... per month.

Are you suggesting that the average DRAM maker should have revenue of $64 Billion a month or $768 Billion a year?

It sounds like you know the industry and I'm looking for some additional colour here.

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