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Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

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Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#101

Post by mizzack »

Nursie wrote: post #100
broknbottle wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Vega cards (56 and 64) were definitely priced competitively as NVidia felt the need to release the 1070 Ti out of nowhere. It sits in a weird price / performance area smack dab between the 1070 and 1080 cards. In addition, the Vega architecture is pretty efficient and your statement about being power hungry and very hot is false.

Perhaps they were when on their discounted launch price, but they quickly jumped up in price (around £100 in a week, even more a few weeks later) and just weren't available for quite some time AFAICT. > In addition, the Vega architecture is pretty efficient and your statement about being power hungry and very hot is false. Excuse me, but I speak from personal experience here. It's really not very efficient, I bought…

Stock Vegas are overvolted (ridiculously so) and clocked past their efficiency range.

The architecture is quite efficient up to ~1400MHz.

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#102

Post by dirtyaura »

feefie wrote: post #65
davidhyde wrote: post #45

The author is shorting Nvidia stock (as he / she discloses at the end of the article). So, while this article attempts to be objective, I just don't believe it can be.

Agreed. The author's bias makes this unethical, in my opinion. I wish HN didn't promote posts like this.

I disagree. It is in no way unethical: Disclosure was made and the reader can use his judgement.

In contrast, many post on HN are veiled promotions of products by startups, and a clear disclosure is often missing.

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#103

Post by xemdetia »

sandworm101 wrote: post #73

What is Nvidia's strategy for "streaming" games, games that execute on a cloud server and streaming to thin-client machines? I assume such a future would see the gamer market for cards disappear. Take that future, add the possible future collapse of crypto currencies, and I see a significant existential risk for anyone whose business relies on GPU sales. Not a 100% future, not ever 25%, but something to think about.

I don't think there is any majority thinking that streaming games is a thing now that VR's around. Game streaming was struggling against the speed of light to get a modest/responsive game experience. Even then on the low end there's plenty of games that'll work on intel embedded just fine so it just becomes a who does it actually serve kind of question to me.

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#104

Post by [deleted] »

jsiepkes wrote: post #16
Tenoke wrote: post #8

Seriously? I find this hard to believe - prices of GPUs have been ridiculously high (much higher than at launch) for so long precisely because the supply was so short. Pretty much every supplier I've seen would either sell out any high-end Nvidia GPUs almost as soon as they got them or would ramp up the price more and more. This is either an incorrect rumour or some very weird shitty strategy by Nvidia that backfired…

NVidia probably liked the high prices (because of miner demand), produced accordingly and kept the price stable. These high prices probably ensure a nice profit margin for a longer time then normal during this stage of the product's life cycle. However a side effect might be somewhat slower sales then they planned (for example because miners will buy anyway but gamers are waiting for the nextgen cards). That means th…

[deleted]

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#105

Post by ksec »

bitL wrote: post #47
ksec wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

May be there is a term for it, but it is a classic example how demand suddenly disappear when the price has dropped because everyone thinks / knew it is going to drop further. For Example, they know the 1080Ti were going for $400, but due to crypto it shoot up to $1000, now even at $500, they may as well wait a little more, and new graphics Turing or Ampere are coming soon anyway.

So the optimal strategy for NVidia is to shred those redundant silicon dies? At some point new Vega will put a pressure on them to release consumer Volta/Turing/Ampere/whatever-they-name-it and at $1000 there is not much hope for getting rid of Pascals via standard sales channels.

Just give it time for the market to digest it organically. It will be a slow process but it is the best then to shred it. Afterall Nvidia is in no hurry for new GPU introduction, as Vega doesn't seems to be competitive.

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#106

Post by snovv_crash »

glenndebacker wrote: post #85
occams_chainsaw wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Card prices have been back to normal for a while now

I looked it up I paid 351,90 euro for my 1070 last year now that same card is 500 euro's... I remember you could pick up a 1080 for 560 euro at that time. So sorry but no the prices aren't back to normal.

Looking at the usual DE shops, I'm seeing 1080s for low EUR500s, and from MindFactory even one at EUR499. Prices seem back to normal.

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#107

Post by dogma1138 »

300,000 GPU dies is maybe 30M worth of inventory to NVIDIA especially considering that if these were "mining" cards those were likely GP104 or even 106's which are worth less than $100 per die.

NVIDIA made a $3.2bln in revenue in the last quarter with gaming accounting for more than half of that so do the math just how many GPUs they actually sell.

Short sellers are becoming really desperate.

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#108

Post by baldfat »

snovv_crash wrote: post #106
glenndebacker wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I looked it up I paid 351,90 euro for my 1070 last year now that same card is 500 euro's... I remember you could pick up a 1080 for 560 euro at that time. So sorry but no the prices aren't back to normal.

Looking at the usual DE shops, I'm seeing 1080s for low EUR500s, and from MindFactory even one at EUR499. Prices seem back to normal.

Not really it is still higher: https://pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/video-card/#gpu.chipse...

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#110

Post by nooknook »

Symmetry wrote: post #84
feefie wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. The author's bias makes this unethical, in my opinion. I wish HN didn't promote posts like this.

Surely if we're going to start accusing people of anti-NVidia bias we should include Charlie from SemiAccurate so he doesn't feel left out. He did coin the term "Bumpgate" after all. https://semiaccurate.com/2010/07/11/why-nvidias-chips-are-de...

The article is citing the SemiAccurate report directly. I actually read some of the SA authors other work on the topic, and he's done some detailed analysis. This one was interesting. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4181940-asian-aib-read-gpu-...

It seems he has been tracking the AIB monthly revenue data out of Taiwan as well as trying to reconcile 2017 numbers with what Nvidia/Amd have reported on mining.And in Nvidia's case he seems focused on the CEO attributing gaming revenue strength in q1 entirely to Fortnite/PUBG when gamers had virtually no access to cards. So, the way I read it is he took the SemiAccurate report as evidence that CEO has gotten it wrong, and that this explained the very vague 'not for a long time' comment at Computex.

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