Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem • Hacker News Board

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#91

Post by andrewmcwatters » Thu, Jun 21, 2018, 4:44 PM UTC

peatmoss wrote: post #66

I recently upgraded to a 1060 6GB card (at inflated prices, because it didn’t look like there’d ever be a break in the storm). I got to thinking, I doubt I’ll ever feel much need to upgrade the screen I game on from 1080p to 4k, mostly because I sit across the room and my eyes naturally antialias things at distance... Given that combination of factors, I have to wonder what it’ll take to make me want to upgrade from…

I'm glad you mentioned this, because it reinforced some of my feelings on the state of the industry from the consumer end.

Fill rate is a tremendous part of GPU performance, so barring any big, relevant demand for 4K resolution or above with VR, I just don't see the need.

Game engines have this tremendous opportunity, that's now available with technology like Vulkan and Metal, to provide high performance rendering, but I think more people are concerned with games that frankly, are just fun.

We're at a really exciting intersection in technology right now, no doubt. But as far as the hardware goes, you almost have to check prices like the damn stock market.

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#92

Post by overcast » Thu, Jun 21, 2018, 4:46 PM UTC

letsgetphysITal wrote: post #71

overcast wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For top tier video cards? yes.

For two year old top tier video cards which are only top-tier because the manufacturer is not releasing later models to try and get rid of the old stock? Probably not. (I have no evidence that they are not releasing newer cards just to continue to sell the older stock at MSRP).

Prices are determined by what people are willing to pay for things. A video card isn't a requirement to sustain life, it's a luxury. If people think $1000 for one is too much, they simply won't buy one. Obviously a business wants to maximize profit, but it's up to the consume to decide if it's worth it.

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#93

Post by distances » Thu, Jun 21, 2018, 4:46 PM UTC

occams_chainsaw wrote: post #36

baldfat wrote: post #29

I Am So Mad. I have had a new workstation purchase waiting for the cards to calm down and now I read this? We get no new technology and prices where a 1080ti equals the retail price of a Titan and now they have 300k to much inventory? NVIDIA needs to be greeted with a Linus salute again. They have been horrible for Linux and horrible on me having a new workstation at work.

Card prices have been back to normal for a while now

Central Europe: GTX 1060 is still 20% more expensive than it was at a low point, so still a long way to go.

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#94

Post by jdietrich » Thu, Jun 21, 2018, 4:56 PM UTC

bitL wrote: post #47

ksec wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

May be there is a term for it, but it is a classic example how demand suddenly disappear when the price has dropped because everyone thinks / knew it is going to drop further. For Example, they know the 1080Ti were going for $400, but due to crypto it shoot up to $1000, now even at $500, they may as well wait a little more, and new graphics Turing or Ampere are coming soon anyway.

So the optimal strategy for NVidia is to shred those redundant silicon dies? At some point new Vega will put a pressure on them to release consumer Volta/Turing/Ampere/whatever-they-name-it and at $1000 there is not much hope for getting rid of Pascals via standard sales channels.

>So the optimal strategy for NVidia is to shred those redundant silicon dies?

Potentially, yes. Dumping their current inventory at the market-clearing price might badly affect demand for their next generation of products and damage their relationship with board partners. Lower GPU prices from Nvidia will barely trickle down to customers due to the rising cost of GDDR memory and the fixed cost of all other aspects of AIB manufacturing. Constraining supply to keep prices close to list might be frustrating for consumers, but it's probably in the long-term interests of Nvidia and their board partners, especially considering the weak competition from AMD.

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#95

Post by IronBacon » Thu, Jun 21, 2018, 4:57 PM UTC

santialbo wrote: post #4

Let's see if this translates into a price drop. I have been wanting to build a gaming pc but the prices for high end graphics cards are absurd.

I'm wondering if RAM prices have some influence in GPU card prices, DDR4 right now costs double than last year... ;__;

GPUs don't use DDR4 tho.

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#96

Post by GuB-42 » Thu, Jun 21, 2018, 5:02 PM UTC

peatmoss wrote: post #66

I recently upgraded to a 1060 6GB card (at inflated prices, because it didn’t look like there’d ever be a break in the storm). I got to thinking, I doubt I’ll ever feel much need to upgrade the screen I game on from 1080p to 4k, mostly because I sit across the room and my eyes naturally antialias things at distance... Given that combination of factors, I have to wonder what it’ll take to make me want to upgrade from…

I've heard about realtime raytracing for decades, and it regularly shown off in demos, but it never materialized in commercial engines. Even now, when we have realtime graphics that look better than movies from 20 years ago, we are still using rasterization, and it shows no sign of stopping.

Raytracing doesn't mean better. It is just a different solution to the rendering equation, and what it does better than rasterization (mostly refraction) is not worth the additional cost. Especially considering that it won't help with global illumination, which is the big thing right now.

The closest thing we have to a "perfect" rendering technique is pathtracing, but for something that isn't a sphere or 8 cubes in a box, we are far, far from realtime rendering.

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#97

Post by simonsarris » Thu, Jun 21, 2018, 5:06 PM UTC

davidhyde wrote: post #45

The author is shorting Nvidia stock (as he / she discloses at the end of the article). So, while this article attempts to be objective, I just don't believe it can be.

Totally disagree with you, and agree with Taleb: To write a piece like this and be worthwhile one must put their money where their mouth is. The disclosure is all that's required.

I don't trust any writing on stocks/markets where a person does not have a position. This person is an investor or trader, unlike the forecasters/prophets/charlatans on day-time stock shows. You don't have to believe this author, but you at least know they are taking their own thesis seriously and stand behind it if they are wrong.

It would be nice if SA put them at the top of the article though.

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#98

Post by s73v3r_ » Thu, Jun 21, 2018, 5:20 PM UTC

edshiro wrote: post #13

IshKebab wrote: post #2

So bitcoin miners aren't the reason for the insane GPU prices then?

Using GPUs to mine Bitcoin is a bad idea. That's why most serious Bitcoin miners would buy ASICs. But Ethereum is much more amenable to GPU-mining so I presume NVIDIA and AMD got a lot of love (and $$$$) from this mining community.

Most people will use Bitcoin as a stand in for any crypto currency.

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#99

Post by s73v3r_ » Thu, Jun 21, 2018, 5:22 PM UTC

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #42

paulie_a wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. Gamers have always been willing to pay stupidly high prices for the latest and greatest hardware going back decades. Nvidia has just optimized the price point.

Don't know how much nvidia has to do with it, they're not the party making the final product. Which is weird btw, why are they deferring to other parties to build and sell the actual cards?

nVidia does build their own cards, as well. But yes, the graphics card market is predicated on AMD and nVidia creating the designs, and then other companies license and manufacture them. Some will also alter the designs a bit, like adding more memory, overclocking the cards, etc.

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#100

Post by Nursie » Thu, Jun 21, 2018, 5:22 PM UTC

broknbottle wrote: post #68

Nursie wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 580s, AFAICT, are only really competitive with nVidia's mid range and have been priced higher for some time due to mining. The Vegas have not been price competitive with nVidia's higher end offerings, have been very power hungry and very hot. AMD needs to pull something out of the bag, it's being left behind.

The Vega cards (56 and 64) were definitely priced competitively as NVidia felt the need to release the 1070 Ti out of nowhere. It sits in a weird price / performance area smack dab between the 1070 and 1080 cards. In addition, the Vega architecture is pretty efficient and your statement about being power hungry and very hot is false.

Perhaps they were when on their discounted launch price, but they quickly jumped up in price (around £100 in a week, even more a few weeks later) and just weren't available for quite some time AFAICT.

> In addition, the Vega architecture is pretty efficient and your statement about being power hungry and very hot is false.

Excuse me, but I speak from personal experience here. It's really not very efficient, I bought a 64 on launch day. It was hot, noisy and power hungry compared to nVidia cards at similar performance levels, which is the main reason I didn't keep it for long.