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Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

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Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#71
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The GeForce 10 series is 2+ years old and are still selling around MSRP. Is that normal?

For top tier video cards? yes.

For two year old top tier video cards which are only top-tier because the manufacturer is not releasing later models to try and get rid of the old stock? Probably not.

(I have no evidence that they are not releasing newer cards just to continue to sell the older stock at MSRP).

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#72
post #8

Seriously? I find this hard to believe - prices of GPUs have been ridiculously high (much higher than at launch) for so long precisely because the supply was so short. Pretty much every supplier I've seen would either sell out any high-end Nvidia GPUs almost as soon as they got them or would ramp up the price more and more. This is either an incorrect rumour or some very weird shitty strategy by Nvidia that backfired…

Miner demand was about 50% of sales. Admittedly this is because a lot of gamers were turned off by high prices. That demand has evaporated since the price of Bitcoin alternatives (eg. Ethereum) has plummeted, and the difficulty of mining is still very high since now ASICs can mine many coins more efficiently than consumers GPUs. Plus it seems like Nvidia are stuck with a lot of low-end chips. Many miners were buying…

Re the competition in the gpu space: that’s also still the case in the scientific computing / ML fields, where CUDA is still several years ahead in terms of functionality and existing investment.

Disclaimer, I am long NVDA

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#73
What is Nvidia's strategy for "streaming" games, games that execute on a cloud server and streaming to thin-client machines? I assume such a future would see the gamer market for cards disappear.

Take that future, add the possible future collapse of crypto currencies, and I see a significant existential risk for anyone whose business relies on GPU sales. Not a 100% future, not ever 25%, but something to think about.

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#74
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Raytracing is faking it as well, but the illusion is a bit better ;-)

I suppose if the universe is in fact a hologram as some scientists have hypothesized, and we’re just living in a 3d projection then we could say reality is faking it :-) But the current gen video hacks and future raytracing are pretty hard to compare. Raytracing can be an accurate simulation of the physics properties of light. I suppose the biggest caveat is whether you’re doing forward or backward raytracing. Backwa…

We still fake the surface properties. Skin, for example, involves a lot of subsurface scattering, and we're very far from that. So texture maps it will be for a long time.

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#75
post #8

Seriously? I find this hard to believe - prices of GPUs have been ridiculously high (much higher than at launch) for so long precisely because the supply was so short. Pretty much every supplier I've seen would either sell out any high-end Nvidia GPUs almost as soon as they got them or would ramp up the price more and more. This is either an incorrect rumour or some very weird shitty strategy by Nvidia that backfired…

Miner demand was about 50% of sales. Admittedly this is because a lot of gamers were turned off by high prices. That demand has evaporated since the price of Bitcoin alternatives (eg. Ethereum) has plummeted, and the difficulty of mining is still very high since now ASICs can mine many coins more efficiently than consumers GPUs. Plus it seems like Nvidia are stuck with a lot of low-end chips. Many miners were buying…

My understanding is that it's been mostly Ethereum driving demand for GPUs. Bitcoin can be mined on dedicated ASICs and mostly is. Ethereum requires more general purpose hardware with a large pool of RAM so people use GPUs instead to mine it. I presume the recent decline in demand for mining GPUs is due to the decline in price.

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#77
post #65

The author is shorting Nvidia stock (as he / she discloses at the end of the article). So, while this article attempts to be objective, I just don't believe it can be.

Agreed. The author's bias makes this unethical, in my opinion. I wish HN didn't promote posts like this.

There’s a point of view that short selling is important & ethical because it creates an incentive to find problems with companies and expose them. Hopefully they’re honest when they do it, but that applies to people pumping a stock too.

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#78

The author is shorting Nvidia stock (as he / she discloses at the end of the article). So, while this article attempts to be objective, I just don't believe it can be.

Shorting a stock does not make automatically make negative opinions about it invalid any more than going long makes positive opinions invalid. The whole point of shorting, and the reason why it's legal, is to give people incentive to find overvalued stocks and thus correct valuations.

It's like people with a negative outlook on a company can't win: if they short, they're accused of being biased. If they don't short, they're accused of tossing out accusations with no skin in the game.

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#79
post #65

The author is shorting Nvidia stock (as he / she discloses at the end of the article). So, while this article attempts to be objective, I just don't believe it can be.

Agreed. The author's bias makes this unethical, in my opinion. I wish HN didn't promote posts like this.

If that's how you feel, then you need to block about half of everything on Seeking Alpha

Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem

#80
post #65

The author is shorting Nvidia stock (as he / she discloses at the end of the article). So, while this article attempts to be objective, I just don't believe it can be.

Agreed. The author's bias makes this unethical, in my opinion. I wish HN didn't promote posts like this.

The bias should lead to more caution, but the disclosure was made. The disclosure would have been more ethical if it had been at the beginning - especially because of the likelyhood of people not reading to the end of the multi-paginated format.
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