Earlier quoted context omitted.
Card prices have been back to normal for a while now
The GeForce 10 series is 2+ years old and are still selling around MSRP. Is that normal?
For top tier video cards? yes.
Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem
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Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem
#62Seriously? I find this hard to believe - prices of GPUs have been ridiculously high (much higher than at launch) for so long precisely because the supply was so short. Pretty much every supplier I've seen would either sell out any high-end Nvidia GPUs almost as soon as they got them or would ramp up the price more and more. This is either an incorrect rumour or some very weird shitty strategy by Nvidia that backfired…
Quote from the last earnings call: "[...] my sense is that there's a fair amount of pent-up demand still. Fortnite is still growing in popularity. PUBG is doing great. And then we've got some amazing titles coming out. And so my sense is that the overall gaming market is just really, is super healthy. And our job is to make sure that we work as hard as we can to get supply out into the marketplace. And hopefully, by…
You can run Fortnite on a toaster though. The recommended specs are an Nvidia GTX 660 or AMD Radeon HD 7870.
Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem
#63Earlier quoted context omitted.
NVidia probably liked the high prices (because of miner demand), produced accordingly and kept the price stable. These high prices probably ensure a nice profit margin for a longer time then normal during this stage of the product's life cycle. However a side effect might be somewhat slower sales then they planned (for example because miners will buy anyway but gamers are waiting for the nextgen cards). That means th…
The majority of the price hike happened in the supply chain and didn't flow through to nvidia. The demand itself was a benefit, of course (simply selling more), but nvidia's source pricing didn't change. nvidia spoke out against mining because their concern was that gamers would move to the PS4 Pro, XboxX, etc, due to the shortage, which could hurt them in the long term.
And I think it was a very valid concern. I put off upgrading my gaming tower to 4K for another 2-3 years last year when prices were insane, and instead got an xbox one x. I know that all the games would run better on my pc but when the marginal cost is so much higher to upgrade my GPU that it’s frankly more than good enough.
Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem
#64Seriously? I find this hard to believe - prices of GPUs have been ridiculously high (much higher than at launch) for so long precisely because the supply was so short. Pretty much every supplier I've seen would either sell out any high-end Nvidia GPUs almost as soon as they got them or would ramp up the price more and more. This is either an incorrect rumour or some very weird shitty strategy by Nvidia that backfired…
Nothing you said is wrong but your argument is based on the incorrect assumption that they're talking about high-end GPUs.
The article states that the oversupply is in low-end GPUs not suitable for mining.
Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem
#65The author is shorting Nvidia stock (as he / she discloses at the end of the article). So, while this article attempts to be objective, I just don't believe it can be.
Agreed. The author's bias makes this unethical, in my opinion. I wish HN didn't promote posts like this.
Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem
#66I recently upgraded to a 1060 6GB card (at inflated prices, because it didn’t look like there’d ever be a break in the storm). I got to thinking, I doubt I’ll ever feel much need to upgrade the screen I game on from 1080p to 4k, mostly because I sit across the room and my eyes naturally antialias things at distance...
Given that combination of factors, I have to wonder what it’ll take to make me want to upgrade from my modest 1060. I can’t imagine what sort of incremental improvement video hacks will make this card too slow at 1080p.
I have to wonder if 4k gaming and VR are the stopgaps that’ll keep some demand for improved gaming performance until some paradigm shift happens, such as the mainstreaming of realtime raytracing. It’s crazy to think that since my first Voodoo video card until now, it’s just been a steady evolution and layering of graphical hacks. We’ve known since before then that eventually raytracing would be an optimal case. I wonder how far away from a total revamping of 3D graphics we are... two generations of GPUs? Three?
Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem
#67I recently upgraded to a 1060 6GB card (at inflated prices, because it didn’t look like there’d ever be a break in the storm). I got to thinking, I doubt I’ll ever feel much need to upgrade the screen I game on from 1080p to 4k, mostly because I sit across the room and my eyes naturally antialias things at distance... Given that combination of factors, I have to wonder what it’ll take to make me want to upgrade from…
Raytracing is faking it as well, but the illusion is a bit better ;-)
Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem
#68Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Nvidia have no direct competition in the GPU space anymore At what level? AMD does the same thing in GPU they do in CPU: They might not hold the overall performance crown, but their value is often better at several tiers than their competition. I really want an RX 580.
The 580s, AFAICT, are only really competitive with nVidia's mid range and have been priced higher for some time due to mining. The Vegas have not been price competitive with nVidia's higher end offerings, have been very power hungry and very hot. AMD needs to pull something out of the bag, it's being left behind.
The Vega cards (56 and 64) were definitely priced competitively as NVidia felt the need to release the 1070 Ti out of nowhere. It sits in a weird price / performance area smack dab between the 1070 and 1080 cards. In addition, the Vega architecture is pretty efficient and your statement about being power hungry and very hot is false.
Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem
#69I recently upgraded to a 1060 6GB card (at inflated prices, because it didn’t look like there’d ever be a break in the storm). I got to thinking, I doubt I’ll ever feel much need to upgrade the screen I game on from 1080p to 4k, mostly because I sit across the room and my eyes naturally antialias things at distance... Given that combination of factors, I have to wonder what it’ll take to make me want to upgrade from…
Raytracing is faking it as well, but the illusion is a bit better ;-)
I suppose if the universe is in fact a hologram as some scientists have hypothesized, and we’re just living in a 3d projection then we could say reality is faking it :-)
But the current gen video hacks and future raytracing are pretty hard to compare. Raytracing can be an accurate simulation of the physics properties of light. I suppose the biggest caveat is whether you’re doing forward or backward raytracing. Backward raytracing simulates only the photons relevant to the observer. Forward raytracing simulates photons from various light sources, a small fraction of which are observed by the camera.
Both are still based on the physical path of virtual photons, which as far as models go, is a pretty solid illusion!
Re: Nvidia Appears To Have A GPU Inventory Problem
#70In my local market, the slowing down of the crypto fad is showing. Used GTX 1080 GPUs are no longer hawked at $800 and there are various ASICS generally available. Even new retail cards are coming down in price, but are still way too high for technology that’s been available for a couple years now. Unfortunately, I believe that Nvidia is going to keep the prices high so that they can position the upcoming 11 series a…
The article states that oversupply is in low-end GPUs. Did Nvidia incorrectly assume there would be a demand for low-end GPUs somewhere?
My understanding is that the demand for high-end GPUs was driven primarily by the shortage of middle-tier GPUs. High-end GPUs obviously are faster at mining but their cost and power consumption meant that they were lower profit and higher risk. Thus miners were buying up all of the middle-tier GPUs. Lower-end GPUs were largely overlooked due to RAM limitations the presented that limited their useful life as miners.
The shortage of middle-tier GPUs meant that gamers could either go for higher or lower tier GPUs or just hold out. Thus high-end GPU prices rose as some people chose to upgrade. When crypto currency prices peaked last fall this created futher demand for the high-end GPUs limiting their supply and further driving up prices. Now that crypto currencies prices are falling and demand for GPUs has waned, the artificial demand for high-end GPUs has disappeared.
But was there ever a demand for the low-end GPUs? If you absolutely needed a GPU sure, but the last 3 generations of GPUs have been all about 4k or VR gaming at 60+FPS. This isn't a market that low-end GPUs can satisfy. Most people looking to upgrade, want an upgrade. If you have a 3 year old middle-tier GPU it can hold it's own or beat most current low-end GPUs.