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William Jennings Bryan’s “Cross of Gold” Speech

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Re: William Jennings Bryan’s “Cross of Gold” Speech

#31

Post by Spooky23 »

gowld wrote: post #9
philwelch wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He also ran for President for three out of four elections between 1896 and 1908 without winning. That's unheard of these days. The last major party losing candidate to run again was Richard Nixon in 1968. Ross Perot also ran, and lost, in 92 and 96. It's very strange that losing a Presidential general election is seen as the end of a political career when in years past, candidates like Bryan, Stevenson, or Dewey were…

This is likely because the number of viable candidates today is much larger due to population growth and access to media. In 1904, getting famous was much harder than now, so someone already known to the voters, even as a loser, could have a better chance than a yet-unknown.

The audience was different. Candidates were selected in party conventions in back room deals, the name recognition that mattered was with party machinery.

Re: William Jennings Bryan’s “Cross of Gold” Speech

#32

Post by Spooky23 »

philwelch wrote: post #18
gowld wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is likely because the number of viable candidates today is much larger due to population growth and access to media. In 1904, getting famous was much harder than now, so someone already known to the voters, even as a loser, could have a better chance than a yet-unknown.

I wonder if negative campaigning also plays a role. Candidates like Hillary Clinton and Al Gore have faltered due to the cumulative effect of years of attacks, while candidates like Obama who appeared out of nowhere were more successful.

Check out 19th century negative campaigns. Modern politicians look like kittens. Pamphlets were published comparing Lincoln to an ape.

Candidates like Clinton falter because they suck. Kicking off your campaign Roosevelt Island and driving to Pennsylvania or wherever in a hotel shuttle van was the kickoff to a weak campaign.

Re: William Jennings Bryan’s “Cross of Gold” Speech

#33

Post by pembrook »

apo wrote: post #25
Steko wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Moderate inflation is easily factored into repayment terms. What inflation penalizes is keeping your money under your mattress. This creates demand to use money now which creates economic activity. > a lot of the interest in Bitcoin is a direct reaction to decades of soft-money policies by the world's governments Bitcoin came from and was nurtured by monetary cranks but they are a small fraction of why people are int…

Moderate inflation is easily factored into repayment terms. Constant inflation is easily factored in. But inflation varies greatly depending on prevailing conditions. The ruling party has an incentive to push for inflationary policies to stimulate short-term economic activity, leading to bouts of inflation that can wreck lenders over the long term. What inflation penalizes is keeping your money under your mattress. I…

You have it backwards. Rising inflation does not create asset bubbles. In fact, rising inflation has the ability to deflate asset bubbles.

For example, we are arguably approaching an asset bubble right now because of a decade of low inflation and low interest rates. In a zero inflation, zero interest rate environment nobody is incentivized to hold cash(since it returns zero) or CDs thus risk assets (ie. stocks) become inflated.

Re: William Jennings Bryan’s “Cross of Gold” Speech

#34

Post by skookumchuck »

smacktoward wrote: post #5

> Bryan decided that he wanted America to have a bimetallic currency. Unfortunately, there was a political class united in its opposition to this policy. That meant he needed a president that favoured it. This gets the causality backwards. What Bryan decided was that he wanted to be President , and that in order to become President he would need to associate himself with an issue hot and controversial enough to attra…

> Unfortunately

Bimetallism can never work, because the amount of silver relative to gold is never fixed. It has all the fundamental faults of "pegging" one currency to another.

Re: William Jennings Bryan’s “Cross of Gold” Speech

#35

Post by skookumchuck »

philwelch wrote: post #6
smacktoward wrote: post #5

> Bryan decided that he wanted America to have a bimetallic currency. Unfortunately, there was a political class united in its opposition to this policy. That meant he needed a president that favoured it. This gets the causality backwards. What Bryan decided was that he wanted to be President , and that in order to become President he would need to associate himself with an issue hot and controversial enough to attra…

He also ran for President for three out of four elections between 1896 and 1908 without winning. That's unheard of these days. The last major party losing candidate to run again was Richard Nixon in 1968. Ross Perot also ran, and lost, in 92 and 96. It's very strange that losing a Presidential general election is seen as the end of a political career when in years past, candidates like Bryan, Stevenson, or Dewey were…

It's so expensive to run these days ($1 billion +) that who wants to invest and fund a loser?

Re: William Jennings Bryan’s “Cross of Gold” Speech

#36

Post by apo »

pembrook wrote: post #33
apo wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Moderate inflation is easily factored into repayment terms. Constant inflation is easily factored in. But inflation varies greatly depending on prevailing conditions. The ruling party has an incentive to push for inflationary policies to stimulate short-term economic activity, leading to bouts of inflation that can wreck lenders over the long term. What inflation penalizes is keeping your money under your mattress. I…

You have it backwards. Rising inflation does not create asset bubbles. In fact, rising inflation has the ability to deflate asset bubbles. For example, we are arguably approaching an asset bubble right now because of a decade of low inflation and low interest rates. In a zero inflation, zero interest rate environment nobody is incentivized to hold cash(since it returns zero) or CDs thus risk assets (ie. stocks) becom…

Rising inflation does not create asset bubbles.

I can think of three recent examples where inflation/soft money policies triggered asset bubbles:

- gold from late 1970s to early 1980s (CPI inflation)

- US real estate late 1990s to 2008 (excessive loan origination)

- US stocks from mid 1990s to 2001 (lax margin requirement)

For example, we are arguably approaching an asset bubble right now because of a decade of low inflation and low interest rates. In a zero inflation, zero interest rate environment nobody is incentivized to hold cash(since it returns zero) or CDs thus risk assets (ie. stocks) become inflated.

An inflation rate of zero would incentivize many people and groups to increase cash holdings. With no inflation to keep at bay, cash becomes a real no-risk bet.

Those doing so would no doubt the interested in real rates of return. For years, investors in CDs endured a negative real rate of return due to inflation. This forced people out of cash and into ever-risker assets.

Throw in mild deflation, and the average Joe could make a real return of a percent or two just by holding cash. It could trigger a stampede of sorts into cash and out of stocks, which explains why central banks are so keen to avoid even mild deflation.

Re: William Jennings Bryan’s “Cross of Gold” Speech

#39

Post by MrZongle2 »

jcranmer wrote: post #22
MrZongle2 wrote: post #4

According to Wikipedia and it's citations, William J. Bryan was satirized as the Cowardly Lion by L. Frank Baum in "The Wizard of Oz".

No. The Wizard of Oz as an extended allegory for bimetallism was a theory proposed by Littlefield in the 60s, and it's been pretty much thoroughly debunked by literary scholars who point out that the characters are essentially common character tropes from 1890s literature, and biographers who pointed out that it's completely contrary to the views that Baum himself held.

Well then I suggest you take a trip to Wikipedia and start editing. For that current bit of trivia there are no less than 4 citations, three of which are from this century.
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