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For $1B, Elon Musk’s Tunnel to O’Hare Would Be a Miracle

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Re: For $1B, Elon Musk’s Tunnel to O’Hare Would Be a Miracle

#41

Post by dsfyu404ed »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #4
FLGMwt wrote: post #3

This is terrible. $25 for 12 minutes from one place in the loop to O'Hare CTA is $2.50 for 37 minutes (the $5 is if you start from O'Hare) This is only benefitting people for whom 25 minutes is worth $20/$22.50. $1bn or whatever absurd cost it comes out to be is much better spent on improving transit for the actual public. Or you know, to stop shutting down schools. EDIT: typo

> This is only benefitting people for whom 25 minutes is worth $20/$22.50 Roads suffer from induced demand [1]. You can't build your way out of traffic. The only solutions are tolls or quotas. In any case, if you can't find anyone willing to pay to use your infrastructure (at a price that recoups the investment), that's a sign you overbuilt. > transit for the actual public Cars going through this tunnel are cars off…

Every additional lane and rail is a good thing because it is a net increase in capacity. Even if it's an expensive road or rail it removes the traffic that considers it a good value from everywhere else.

>Roads suffer from induced demand [1].

Demand is a good thing because it's economic activity that wouldn't have happened if the piece of infrastructure in question wasn't built out. Crappy infrastructure increases the cost of geographic distance and that's bad for everyone.

> You can't build your way out of traffic

Reducing traffic isn't the point. The point is getting more people and goods to and from where they need to be. You can slap a $100 price on a subway ticket or a $100 toll on the highway if you want to reduce traffic. That doesn't help anybody except the people rich enough to regularly pay it.

> The only solutions are tolls or quotas.

Which themselves have a bunch of negative side effects because you're basically forcing that traffic onto other roads or other forms of transit and many trips will be forgone in the process.

You can't create capacity out of thin air by manipulating the cost (money, time or some other metric) of the different transit options. You can only create the illusion of capacity by forcing traffic elsewhere.

>In any case, if you can't find anyone willing to pay to use your infrastructure (at a price that recoups the investment), that's a sign you overbuilt.

Or a sign that your prices are so high that other options are still less worse by comparison.

Re: For $1B, Elon Musk’s Tunnel to O’Hare Would Be a Miracle

#42

Post by throwaway43244 »

FLGMwt wrote: post #3

This is terrible. $25 for 12 minutes from one place in the loop to O'Hare CTA is $2.50 for 37 minutes (the $5 is if you start from O'Hare) This is only benefitting people for whom 25 minutes is worth $20/$22.50. $1bn or whatever absurd cost it comes out to be is much better spent on improving transit for the actual public. Or you know, to stop shutting down schools. EDIT: typo

In comparison, it costs about ~$8-12 for the 80km between Tokyo and NRT (~1.5 hour ride).

Re: For $1B, Elon Musk’s Tunnel to O’Hare Would Be a Miracle

#43

Post by lvh »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #4
FLGMwt wrote: post #3

This is terrible. $25 for 12 minutes from one place in the loop to O'Hare CTA is $2.50 for 37 minutes (the $5 is if you start from O'Hare) This is only benefitting people for whom 25 minutes is worth $20/$22.50. $1bn or whatever absurd cost it comes out to be is much better spent on improving transit for the actual public. Or you know, to stop shutting down schools. EDIT: typo

> This is only benefitting people for whom 25 minutes is worth $20/$22.50 Roads suffer from induced demand [1]. You can't build your way out of traffic. The only solutions are tolls or quotas. In any case, if you can't find anyone willing to pay to use your infrastructure (at a price that recoups the investment), that's a sign you overbuilt. > transit for the actual public Cars going through this tunnel are cars off…

I'm not sure I understand your argument. On the one hand, you cite induced demand, on the other you say "cars going through this tunnel are cars off other roads".

Isn't that a contradiction? Or are you saying induced demand only works for cars?

Re: For $1B, Elon Musk’s Tunnel to O’Hare Would Be a Miracle

#44

Post by fredley »

bluedino wrote: post #34
ComputerGuru wrote: post #20

I can’t believe California pays 1 billion dollars a mile just to drill out tunnels. I think the going rate in Europe (not even China!) is something like $40M/km or fifteen times less than what California is paying per mile.

Even in one of the largest cities in the country? Can you dig a tunnel in London, Berlin, or Paris for that price?

You can for a lot less than $1bn/mile. Crossrail was ~£200m/mile. Even the Channel Tunnel, under the sea, was £300m/mile. Those prices are all inclusive, so that includes building stations, rolling stock etc.

Also unlike old cities, there are no archeological issues when digging under LA.

Re: For $1B, Elon Musk’s Tunnel to O’Hare Would Be a Miracle

#45

Post by perardi »

bonestamp2 wrote: post #13

> In Toronto, where the subway system doesn’t reach the international airport, a brand-new airport express line has fallen seriously short of ridership expectations, even with its one-way fare of $12.35 The reason this is failing is because of awareness. I travel to Toronto for work 4-5 times every year (for the past 12 years). I heard about this extension being approved a couple years ago and I've never seen a sign…

Any good analysis out there as to why the UP Express hasn't done so well? I took it just this week, and it's certainly better than the bus they have to shuttle from the end of the subway line to Pearson.

Re: For $1B, Elon Musk’s Tunnel to O’Hare Would Be a Miracle

#46

Post by lvh »

ainiriand wrote: post #2

It is a bet. They need to prove that they are there to play the game like the rest of the competitors. If they fail for many different reasons a small budget increase is not a big deal. They are ready to pay the fines.

If they really are footing the bill themselves, what is their incentive to understate price? Closing deals before the real price of the actually-shipped tunnel is known?

Re: For $1B, Elon Musk’s Tunnel to O’Hare Would Be a Miracle

#47

Post by jerf »

beat wrote: post #9

I wonder about vulnerability to terrorism here? How easily could a sufficient bomb disable the entire system for weeks or months? I started thinking this way while standing in line to go through security at JFK. There were about a thousand people milling about, and we hadn't gone through any sort of substantial security yet. And I was thinking that a bomb there could kill more people than taking out an airplane. Yay…

It isn't the airports being protected, it is the airplanes specifically, because airplanes are extremely powerful guided missiles in the wrong hands. Prior to 9/11 even a hijacked plane was still ultimately viewed as an inconvenience at a civilizational level, but post-9/11 it is now recognized that planes are non-trivial weapons of war, the most powerful mobile thing that a civilian can hope to lay hands on. We can quibble with the exact steps taken to protect them, and the effectiveness and cost-efficiency of the steps, but ultimately, it isn't really irrational to protect them.

Especially if you are any sort of believer in arms control, like, even a little bit; if you think civilians shouldn't be in possession of RPGs, and they shouldn't be easy to get, then you should be OK with some security around planes, because they are way more dangerous than an RPG. It shouldn't be possible to just stroll into an airport and casually pick up a 777.

Re: For $1B, Elon Musk’s Tunnel to O’Hare Would Be a Miracle

#48

Post by hinkley »

FLGMwt wrote: post #3

This is terrible. $25 for 12 minutes from one place in the loop to O'Hare CTA is $2.50 for 37 minutes (the $5 is if you start from O'Hare) This is only benefitting people for whom 25 minutes is worth $20/$22.50. $1bn or whatever absurd cost it comes out to be is much better spent on improving transit for the actual public. Or you know, to stop shutting down schools. EDIT: typo

Tokyo built a toll road under the Bay they said saved an hour off your commute if I’m remembering. Opened about 20 years ago and they are charging around $21 each way if you use the electronic toll system.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokyo_Bay_Aqua-Line

Re: For $1B, Elon Musk’s Tunnel to O’Hare Would Be a Miracle

#49

Post by king_magic »

bonestamp2 wrote: post #13

> In Toronto, where the subway system doesn’t reach the international airport, a brand-new airport express line has fallen seriously short of ridership expectations, even with its one-way fare of $12.35 The reason this is failing is because of awareness. I travel to Toronto for work 4-5 times every year (for the past 12 years). I heard about this extension being approved a couple years ago and I've never seen a sign…

I can’t understand that (it being considered a failure) - the UP is super super convienent when I fly into TO.

Re: For $1B, Elon Musk’s Tunnel to O’Hare Would Be a Miracle

#50

Post by josefresco »

ComputerGuru wrote: post #20

I can’t believe California pays 1 billion dollars a mile just to drill out tunnels. I think the going rate in Europe (not even China!) is something like $40M/km or fifteen times less than what California is paying per mile.

If the Boring Company’s cost projection of $1 billion is anywhere near accurate, that pencils out to $55.5 million per mile—far and away, the cheapest construction cost for any subterranean transit line in the U.S.
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