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The Limits of Expertise

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Re: The Limits of Expertise

#61

Post by citrablue »

Latteland wrote: post #59
mannykannot wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Crashing the plane" is not the best metaphor. In the case of politics and economics, we have, broadly speaking, two tribes of experts who disagree, at a fundamental level, on many things. Furthermore, they have both been repeatedly blindsided by events - their expertise seems to consist mostly of being able to explain, in great detail and certainty, but always after the event, why the opposing tribe's fundamental be…

Both sides have used some amount of science, logic and fair observations over many of their years of observation, but recently one side has stopped doing that. today we really don't have "just disagreeing tribes". We have science and logic vs opinion.

To be fair, we don't really know what works in terms of governance and what doesn't.

We do know what science currently says, but that doesn't mean it will forever indicate the same conclusion (to wit: nutrition). It does not provide much insight into a complex world like politics and civics, which are better thought of as an open system with unclear interactions between inputs.

(Also: "science" is not some unified view that has the on-high pope with decrees.)

Re: The Limits of Expertise

#62

Post by keenboy »

One other important consideration...

By stating that we're sick of experts the author implies that we don't trust them. It's important to recognize that there are two sides to trust. 1) are they competent 2) do they have integrity

Many of the examples in the article are failures of integrity, not failures of competence (Wall Street investors, Facebook, etc.).

This suggests that the core issue may be lack of ethics/morals rather than lack of expertise.

Re: The Limits of Expertise

#63

Post by maneesh »

Retra wrote: post #56
mcguire wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you asserting that all economists and financial goobs are "BS artists," or merely most? Is there a way to tell the difference better than "he hasn't gone belly up yet"?

They're only asserting that some economists could get away with being "BS artists," so inevitably, some do. Obviously that hurts the study of economics as a whole, because if you can get away with BS, that means people can't tell what is and is not BS, so non-BS looks like BS and has to compete on points other than merit.

Certainly Taleb is referring to all economists, give or take a handful, not just some.

Re: The Limits of Expertise

#64

Post by s3m4j »

mannykannot wrote: post #47
s3m4j wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's almost a rhetorical question, but... How do you define " crashing the plane " here ? There's only one plane and it's still going. History hasn't ended.

"Crashing the plane" is not the best metaphor. In the case of politics and economics, we have, broadly speaking, two tribes of experts who disagree, at a fundamental level, on many things. Furthermore, they have both been repeatedly blindsided by events - their expertise seems to consist mostly of being able to explain, in great detail and certainty, but always after the event, why the opposing tribe's fundamental be…

I think what I meant was, as there's only "one plane" we can't really make economic experiences in a lab and see which one is best. Ergo political economy expertise may be [ed: is] absolute bullshit.

Re: The Limits of Expertise

#65

Post by Retra »

maneesh wrote: post #63
Retra wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're only asserting that some economists could get away with being "BS artists," so inevitably, some do. Obviously that hurts the study of economics as a whole, because if you can get away with BS, that means people can't tell what is and is not BS, so non-BS looks like BS and has to compete on points other than merit.

Certainly Taleb is referring to all economists, give or take a handful, not just some.

That doesn't matter. The point still stands so long as it is true for at least one economist.

Re: The Limits of Expertise

#66

Post by groby_b »

throwawaymath wrote: post #26
groby_b wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can I ask you for the subreddits you used? (Or, if you're in the Bay Area, whom you're working with :) I'm still suffering from a knee thing, and I've been through 3 diagnoses so far, with no results. A results-oriented PT would be a lovely person to meet. (Most PTs seem in no way able to adapt to any changes, or figure out which exercises help) [e-mail in profile.]

> [e-mail in profile.] You are the second person in the past week who has invited me to email them here, and both times there wasn't actually an email address in the profile :) Nevertheless I'm happy to answer here in case it helps anyone else: I asked on /r/running and /r/AdvancedRunning. The latter was the one that really gave strong recommendations. I'm not in the Bay Area (NYC), so I can't comment on that area.

Huh. Turns out HN doesn't display it, but you can enter it. Wonder why the field is there at all, or what magic incantation will make it appear.

Anyway, NYC is not going to work :) But thanks for the reddits, I'll check it out!

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