Netflix and Alphabet will need to become ISPs, fast • Hacker News Board

Re: Netflix and Alphabet will need to become ISPs, fast

#91

Post by dpark » Wed, Jun 13, 2018, 5:49 PM UTC

bradleybuda wrote: post #59

knowuh wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You must live in one of the few places in the US where high-speed internet is available through multiple providers. That is definitely not the norm. Most people won't be able to simply switch to the least nasty provider.

More than half of US households have multiple wired broadband providers: https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/06/50-mi... This does not include wireless broadband options. Could the competitive situation be better? Absolutely. But it is, in fact, the "norm" to have a choice.

That means nearly half have a single (or no) option. Further, for many who have two choices, the decision is between not-actually-very-Fast DSL or a single cable provider.

In Mountain View I had only shitty DSL or shitty cable. Both sucked and cable was very expensive. (This may be different now. My experience was 8 or so years ago.)

I happen to be lucky to have actual high speed Comcast now, with an option for FTTH from Centurylink, plus DSL. Most people’s options are not so good.

Re: Netflix and Alphabet will need to become ISPs, fast

#92

Post by ncallaway » Wed, Jun 13, 2018, 5:51 PM UTC

nickjj wrote: post #72

I don't think ISPs have any power in this situation at all. They are just delivery mechanisms when it comes to providing internet connectivity. All of the power lies within Google, Netflix and other content providers. Google could one day deny access to all of its services for all Comcast customers. If all of the content providers / big sites band together and do this, then there would be no value in paying for a Com…

> I'm sure this would never happen but that's all it would take for real change to happen.

Interestingly, this kind of thing happens with some frequency in cable channels and various TV providers. I'm not quite so sure this is as far fetched as "would never happen".

I think it'd take some fairly well-demonstrated bad behavior by one or a handful of ISPs before sites would go there, but I think this could be possible.

Re: Netflix and Alphabet will need to become ISPs, fast

#93

Post by confounded » Wed, Jun 13, 2018, 5:52 PM UTC

bradleybuda wrote: post #59

knowuh wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You must live in one of the few places in the US where high-speed internet is available through multiple providers. That is definitely not the norm. Most people won't be able to simply switch to the least nasty provider.

More than half of US households have multiple wired broadband providers: https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/06/50-mi... This does not include wireless broadband options. Could the competitive situation be better? Absolutely. But it is, in fact, the "norm" to have a choice.

Is it?

Is a choice between two providers a meaningful enough number for spontaneous commercial differentiation and competition to produce access which provides good value for consumers, and a level playing field for online competition?

That chain of causality is the argument for the benefits of deregulated market-based competition.

I'm not sure the linked report provides much evidence of that. Especially in the context of streaming video, the proportion of households that have 3+ providers for a 25mbps connections appears to be less than 20%. Excluding wireless connections (expensive and unreliable) that number appears to be less than 10%.

Re: Netflix and Alphabet will need to become ISPs, fast

#94

Post by alfredallan1 » Wed, Jun 13, 2018, 5:53 PM UTC

manofmanysmiles wrote: post #20

pascalxus wrote: post #5

This the end of innovation in online videos: "When companies like Netflix, which today closed with a market cap of almost $158 billion, can’t necessarily get enough negotiating power to ensure that consumers have direct access to them, no startup can ever hope to compete. America may believe in its entrepreneurs, but its competition laws have done nothing to keep the terrain open for them. Those implications are just…

This type of comment implies you think the world is static. I'm not saying that this good, but what makes you so sure market and social forces won't produce a better model? To me this is just a temporary setback, and a reminder why we need to focus on developing new technologies, like a "truly decentralized internet", blockchain, cryptography, and more. It almost feels like a the death throws of a monster that will d…

I don’t know how knowledgeable you are about this, but if you’re up to scratch, you should hash out some actual ways this could be done..

Re: Netflix and Alphabet will need to become ISPs, fast

#95

Post by dsabanin » Wed, Jun 13, 2018, 5:55 PM UTC

knowuh wrote: post #40

dsabanin wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just fail to see how Comcast or Verizon are going to be selling you their internet connection if you won't be able to connect to the things you want to connect to (like Netflix, iTunes, YouTube) through them. Especially on higher plans, people buy a lot of bandwidth so that they can stream videos, that's how ISPs up-sell to them. If they start throttling, they'll be selling an empty bucket, and it's not going to be…

You must live in one of the few places in the US where high-speed internet is available through multiple providers. That is definitely not the norm. Most people won't be able to simply switch to the least nasty provider.

That's the status quo with net neutrality, it's repeal may or may not have an effect on it. It's going to be interesting to watch.

Re: Netflix and Alphabet will need to become ISPs, fast

#96

Post by x0x0 » Wed, Jun 13, 2018, 5:55 PM UTC

bradleybuda wrote: post #59

knowuh wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You must live in one of the few places in the US where high-speed internet is available through multiple providers. That is definitely not the norm. Most people won't be able to simply switch to the least nasty provider.

More than half of US households have multiple wired broadband providers: https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2017/06/50-mi... This does not include wireless broadband options. Could the competitive situation be better? Absolutely. But it is, in fact, the "norm" to have a choice.

We live in a place that supposedly has multiple wired providers. However, if you want more than about a megabyte a second, your "choice" is comcast. DSL exists but is maybe 20x phone line modem speed.

But we have a "choice" of providers, so we're competitive! This is in sfbay peninsula.

Re: Netflix and Alphabet will need to become ISPs, fast

#97

Post by 0xffff2 » Wed, Jun 13, 2018, 5:55 PM UTC

nickjj wrote: post #72

I don't think ISPs have any power in this situation at all. They are just delivery mechanisms when it comes to providing internet connectivity. All of the power lies within Google, Netflix and other content providers. Google could one day deny access to all of its services for all Comcast customers. If all of the content providers / big sites band together and do this, then there would be no value in paying for a Com…

Wait a minute. Couldn't Google do this even with net neutrality? If I put a web server on the public internet, I'm perfectly free to refuse connections arbitrarily. It's only ISPs, who are routing traffic, that are required to route everything the same under NN.

Re: Netflix and Alphabet will need to become ISPs, fast

#98

Post by Latteland » Wed, Jun 13, 2018, 5:57 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #37

murph-almighty wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That news is so frustrating to hear: 1) It would help break up local ISP monopolies. Yes, internet is a bit of a natural monopoly, but if we can't have NN then lets start breaking ground for new fiber, 2) Google will need to lobby for changes in local regulations that prohibit local ISPs... which helps the local ISP startup market.

> 2) Google will need to lobby for changes in local regulations that prohibit local ISPs... which helps the local ISP startup market. Google won't do that because of its political ties. To open up local ISP competition, you need to get rid of things like build-out requirements, loosen permitting requirements, reduce the ways people can stall installation of Fiber huts for NIMBY reasons, etc. Google will happily push…

That sounds exactly backwards. Google argued for net neutrality because they said it benefits everyone, not just them. And it does benefit everyone. Google doesn't have to justify things politically. At the same time, Google doesn't always do everything it can in the public interest, it sometimes does things that primarily benefit itself.

Re: Netflix and Alphabet will need to become ISPs, fast

#99

Post by dsabanin » Wed, Jun 13, 2018, 5:57 PM UTC

staplers wrote: post #50

dsabanin wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that's my point, it will give a smaller-sized competition more chances to differentiate, since users might start looking for something better.

On what infrastructure? Pigeon carriers?

They could first start small – municipalities, LANs, HOA-based WANs, consolidating slowly. It's like you're saying that no ISP progress will ever be made if someone is not using existing AT&T networks.

Re: Netflix and Alphabet will need to become ISPs, fast

#100

Post by rayiner » Wed, Jun 13, 2018, 5:58 PM UTC

SimbaOnSteroids wrote: post #83

rayiner wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it? Startups manage to continue to exist on the Google Play Store and on the iOS App Store, even though Apple and Google directly compete with many of their offerings. Consumers basically have just two choices for mobile platform, but somehow that's enough competition to keep the kind of behavior you talk about in check.

Difference is mobile platforms, as their name implies, are not geographically locked. There aren't android or apple only counties, there are however Comcast or Spectrum only counties. This means the cost of switching is too high to really be considered in competition.

More than half of households have two or more broadband providers at 25 mbps+; with 5G, the typical household is going to have 2-4 such providers. Two providers isn't a highly competitive market, but it's the same level of competition as exists for mobile platforms, and that seems to work fine.