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Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

arxiv.org

41–50 of 129 posts

Re: Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

#41

It's "papers" like this by people that are either clueless or malicious that make everyone pine for the pre-arxiv days. Everyone considered this option. From the very first day the paradox was posed. We don't know the parameters well, it's within our margin of error that no one else is out there, so it's an option. This is such an absurd claim to take as your own that it's literally on the wikipedia page! It's also e…

The paper just says that Fermi estimation method is not applicable in this case. It does not say that there is no life, it says that is not the right way to estimate life existence. You can as well flip a coin, and then be amazed that aliens do not turn up when you guess heads right.

Re: Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

#42
post #27
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That in turn makes assumptions about the practicality of interstellar travel etc. But, yes. The counterpoint to space is big is that so are timescales.

Interstellar travel is definitely possible. The only question is how long the trips take. You can build nuclear pulse propulsion vessels fairly easily that can reach a few percent of the speed of light. Those things can cross the Milky Way in less than ten million years.

I wouldn't use the term "definitely." But it looks like "just" a (very hard) engineering problem [i.e. no known fundamental reasons why it's impossible]. And humans are pretty good at solving engineering problems over relatively short periods of time.

ADDED: There are also questions of resources, motivations, and e.g. whether we'd even want to build self-replicating probes.

Re: Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

#43
post #34

It's "papers" like this by people that are either clueless or malicious that make everyone pine for the pre-arxiv days. Everyone considered this option. From the very first day the paradox was posed. We don't know the parameters well, it's within our margin of error that no one else is out there, so it's an option. This is such an absurd claim to take as your own that it's literally on the wikipedia page! It's also e…

I dunno, I kind of doubt that Eric Drexler is clueless or malicious. Maybe if you read the paper and understood their approach you'd have less of a knee-jerk reaction. They are arguing (as pointed out in comments elsewhere) that the math on probabilities should be using distributions, and this is what they do, and they go on to show that the resulting probabilities are far, far lower than the simplistic Drake equatio…

> the math on probabilities should be using distributions

Do you really think that this is novel in any way whatsoever? There is some yearly chance of nuclear war, and I don't know about geopolitics so I have a prior distribution over that yearly chance. Should I cite this paper?

I actually really like the authors, and for all I know the paper may have some new insights or perform a calculation that hasn't been done before, but let's not pretend that prior distributions over probabilities is a new idea.

Re: Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

#44

It's "papers" like this by people that are either clueless or malicious that make everyone pine for the pre-arxiv days. Everyone considered this option. From the very first day the paradox was posed. We don't know the parameters well, it's within our margin of error that no one else is out there, so it's an option. This is such an absurd claim to take as your own that it's literally on the wikipedia page! It's also e…

Can you point to a single person making the point previously that even small amounts of uncertainty in the distribution of each variable in the Drake equation often implies a small or near-zero number of ETI even when the best mean point-estimate of the distribution for each variable, when multiplied together, predicts a large mean number of ETIs?

Re: Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

#45

It's "papers" like this by people that are either clueless or malicious that make everyone pine for the pre-arxiv days. Everyone considered this option. From the very first day the paradox was posed. We don't know the parameters well, it's within our margin of error that no one else is out there, so it's an option. This is such an absurd claim to take as your own that it's literally on the wikipedia page! It's also e…

The most interesting option (danger: my dumbass opinions ahead) for why there's no other communicating species in radio range is whether there's a great filter right under our nose.

If we can ever prove that there's plenty of planets and plenty of abiogenesis and plenty of multicellular things out there that just don't know how to make radio waves, then either the leap to technology is exceedingly rare or we are in very big trouble very soon. I could see that keeping some people up at night.

Of course it could just be that, like us, other technological beings don't constantly broadcast super-directional radio transmissions at super-high power into random areas of space. We sent the Arecibo message a couple times for a few minutes, but it was really not enough to ever hope it got noticed by anyone out there. Even if space is bursting with intelligent life. Not even close. Cute project, though. Why do we expect more from others?

There was once a fairly mature plan, back in the 60s I believe, when nukes were still all the rage and people were discussing lots of exciting ways to use them for space exploration, wherein some physicist calculated how much power you'd need to make meaningful, intelligible radio contact a few stars over using an omnidirectional radio source. It involved setting off lots of nuclear bombs somewhere around Jupiter's orbit, in fact modulating the detonations and using the EMP as the signal. Those are the extreme methods needed get a signal out there up and over the noise of our own star, to defeat outrageous inverse square losses, to have it even barely intelligible at a very low baud rate a few light years away. Have we ever actually done that, even once? No.

So that should also tell you that nobody is listening to our old TV broadcasts and it's no surprise we aren't able to pick up anyone else's. No sane technological race is going to do an omnidirectional burst of communications meant for local use at such an enormous magnitude of power. It would be wasteful and destructive. Directed, focused transmissions only reach a billionth of the sky, so that has its own odds against it. SETI is a highly optimistic program considering the physics at work here.

The other argument for Fermi's paradox and why, if there are intelligent beings out there, we should know about it: If there's an advanced race even a couple million years ahead of us--just a blink of an eye in astronomical terms--they should have proliferated through the whole galaxy by now. We wouldn't be listening to their broadcasts, we would be them. Even discounting how unlikely it is that any race will ever be able to get to another star, this assumes that life (or Von Neumann machines) will spread and replicate endlessly, until they fill an extremely large space and convert an astronomically large amount of mass into themselves. We don't really see that with life we have on Earth. Most of our biome is still matter which is not life, and it's been here for billions of years. I don't understand the assumption that life will spread infinitely instead of staking out a reasonably large area that is barely manageable and then cull down, as life does here in our data set.

Even if there's a lot of technological species out there, and they're broadcasting with rational amounts of power, and they've expanded to cover rational amounts of space, it's still no surprise that we haven't found one yet. It's almost impossible to keep in mind just how big it all is. We also haven't been searching exhaustively or for a very long period of time. Would an alien SETI comparable to ours be able to detect our own transmissions? It's actually really unlikely.

Re: Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

#46
post #2

TL;DR - It's not a paradox, because we're probably alone. Kind of a letdown!

The Drake equation is the epitome of garbage in garbage out. Trying to draw a line using a single data point.

There was recent news from NASA about the discovery of organic molecules on Mars and the possibility of life there at some point in the past. Discovery that life once existed on Mars would blow up the assumptions in the Drake equation.

As for the Fermi paradox I'm still of the opinion that its solution is simple but depressing: Interstellar travel is so difficult that by the time you're capable of it you don't need it anymore, and even when you're capable of it you still don't get very far outside of your stellar neighborhood. Unlimited power systems, reactionless drives, and FTL travel (or even high-c travel) are depressingly impossible. And then the cold hand of entropy and the aggregate chance of disaster make it extremely dangerous to even attempt. Basically without Sci-Fi propulsion/power you end up traveling at an interstellar snail's pace, and the longer the trip the more likely it is that a random meteorite smashes through your vessel, or you simply run out of spare parts and materials to make them, and the amount of fuel you need to just keep the lights on becomes enormous.

If you can build a starship that can travel between solar systems with our current understanding of physics, then you can build orbital colonies for basically unlimited living space much much easier. For one, they can be powered by solar cells instead of needing to carry fuel. It's not like we are going to run out of raw materials either. Even restricting yourself to the belt the amount of material available would last basically indefinitely. Worst case you can start breaking up moons.

So even in a universe full of life everybody is alone. Especially if you think about how genetic algorithms tend to get hung up on local maxima, so lots of planets waste millions of years with dumb dinosaurs with no space program or radio telescopes.

Re: Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

#47
post #34

It's "papers" like this by people that are either clueless or malicious that make everyone pine for the pre-arxiv days. Everyone considered this option. From the very first day the paradox was posed. We don't know the parameters well, it's within our margin of error that no one else is out there, so it's an option. This is such an absurd claim to take as your own that it's literally on the wikipedia page! It's also e…

I dunno, I kind of doubt that Eric Drexler is clueless or malicious. Maybe if you read the paper and understood their approach you'd have less of a knee-jerk reaction. They are arguing (as pointed out in comments elsewhere) that the math on probabilities should be using distributions, and this is what they do, and they go on to show that the resulting probabilities are far, far lower than the simplistic Drake equatio…

doubt that Eric Drexler is clueless or malicious

Someone however, does not.

https://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2010/08/24/nano-nonsense-...

Re: Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

#48
post #23
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Panspermia?

Maybe, but not necessarily even that. The flow of chemical evolution that leads to carbon-based life is just so highly likely. We see some key molecules just about everywhere we look out there. And various simulations (physical, not virtual) create nucleic acids, amino acids, fatty acids, carbohydrates, etc. So there's no reason to think that the Earth is special.

Something I don't get, people say something along those lines -- that with earth-like conditions, blah-blah, earth-like planets, ... then life!

But also experts claim life only arose once on Earth. So, in a place with perfect conditions, the perfect distance from the sun, the perfect atmosphere, perfect trigger, perfect environmental conditions, life only started once! Doesn't that make it so infinitesimally unlikely that even with millions, billions, of planets with the right conditions we still shouldn't expect abiogenesis to occur.

The same arguments that make for extraterrestrial life surely stand against the uniqueness of anything. We know things that are unique. Seems like it's mostly faith based assertion.

Re: Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

#49
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dunno, I kind of doubt that Eric Drexler is clueless or malicious. Maybe if you read the paper and understood their approach you'd have less of a knee-jerk reaction. They are arguing (as pointed out in comments elsewhere) that the math on probabilities should be using distributions, and this is what they do, and they go on to show that the resulting probabilities are far, far lower than the simplistic Drake equatio…

> the math on probabilities should be using distributions Do you really think that this is novel in any way whatsoever? There is some yearly chance of nuclear war, and I don't know about geopolitics so I have a prior distribution over that yearly chance. Should I cite this paper? I actually really like the authors, and for all I know the paper may have some new insights or perform a calculation that hasn't been done…

What does novelty have to do with dissolving the Fermi Paradox?

Is Fermi is some well established science, with repeated experimental proof, upon which numerous other conjectures have been built on?

Does it really require a novel approach to attack its basis?

Re: Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

#50

Does anyone else find this question totally uninteresting? There's no discussion to be had about this paradox that doesn't devolve into an N=1 predictive model.

I find it interesting because if N=1, then we're an incredibly statistical fluke, and yet there's no reason to suppose that our solar system or planet is that much of an anomaly.

I feel like this is about the same as wandering out into the antarctic pole of inaccessibility, whispering "is anyone out there" one time in 1974, waiting a couple minutes, and then pondering on how it's such an incredible statistical fluke that nobody has responded.
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