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Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

arxiv.org

11–20 of 129 posts

Re: Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

#11
post #9

It has always seemed arrogant to think that aliens exist anywhere within our galaxy. Look at how many galaxies are out there. Now realize that the universe extends far beyond our Hubble sphere. We can’t hope to colonize even a fraction of 1% of our galaxy, even with wildly futuristic technology. There is one option, though: Become our own aliens. If we set up colonies separated by time and distance, we will culturall…

What if we are the aliens though?

Panspermia?

Re: Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

#12
How can we be expected to take seriously a probability estimate of life being "out there"? Only 10 years ago we discovered how many Earth-like planets are likely in our galaxy (I didn't see this aspect mentioned in the paper...), and they are also calculating a probability of abiogenesis (emergence of life), which, while I'm not an expert, seems highly speculative.

Re: Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

#14

It's "papers" like this by people that are either clueless or malicious that make everyone pine for the pre-arxiv days. Everyone considered this option. From the very first day the paradox was posed. We don't know the parameters well, it's within our margin of error that no one else is out there, so it's an option. This is such an absurd claim to take as your own that it's literally on the wikipedia page! It's also e…

> This is such an absurd claim to take as your own that it's literally on the wikipedia page!

Confirmed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#Extraterrestrial...

Re: Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

#15
post #9

It has always seemed arrogant to think that aliens exist anywhere within our galaxy. Look at how many galaxies are out there. Now realize that the universe extends far beyond our Hubble sphere. We can’t hope to colonize even a fraction of 1% of our galaxy, even with wildly futuristic technology. There is one option, though: Become our own aliens. If we set up colonies separated by time and distance, we will culturall…

Von Neumann probes could probably colonize a good chunk of the Milky Way given a few hundred thousand years.

Re: Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

#16

It's "papers" like this by people that are either clueless or malicious that make everyone pine for the pre-arxiv days. Everyone considered this option. From the very first day the paradox was posed. We don't know the parameters well, it's within our margin of error that no one else is out there, so it's an option. This is such an absurd claim to take as your own that it's literally on the wikipedia page! It's also e…

Agreed. This is just picking parameters consistent with no detection of extraterrestrial civilizations. The point of the Fermi paradox is that it's a stretch to assume such parameters. It's not prediction about extraterrestrial civilizations collapsing or whatever. It's just an alternative to consider. And perhaps a warning about shouting at the Universe. Although it's probably too late to fret too much about that.

Re: Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

#17
post #2

TL;DR - It's not a paradox, because we're probably alone. Kind of a letdown!

And some numbers from the paper:

> we find a substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our observable universe (53%–99.6% and 39%–85% respectively).

> ’Where are they?’ — probably extremely far away, and quite possibly beyond the cosmological horizon and forever unreachable.

Re: Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

#18
The conclusion of this paper is, paraphrasing, "We should stop using point estimates for what should be distributions. When we do that, we get much lower bounds and have a better chance at being more precise, whether or not we are alone." It opens up avenues for more questions, which is the correct stance given how little we know.

Re: Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

#19
post #9

It has always seemed arrogant to think that aliens exist anywhere within our galaxy. Look at how many galaxies are out there. Now realize that the universe extends far beyond our Hubble sphere. We can’t hope to colonize even a fraction of 1% of our galaxy, even with wildly futuristic technology. There is one option, though: Become our own aliens. If we set up colonies separated by time and distance, we will culturall…

>We can’t hope to colonize even a fraction of 1% of our galaxy, even with wildly futuristic technology.

If you can do any colonization at all it shouldn't be that much harder to colonize the whole galaxy. Once you've got the ability to colonize exponential growth will take over and pretty soon* you'll be everywhere.

*In the context of the Fermi paradox, we're wondering why no aliens have already colonized the galaxy (including our solar system). So by "pretty soon" I mean relative to the time interval between when such aliens might have appeared and now.

Re: Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

#20

It's "papers" like this by people that are either clueless or malicious that make everyone pine for the pre-arxiv days. Everyone considered this option. From the very first day the paradox was posed. We don't know the parameters well, it's within our margin of error that no one else is out there, so it's an option. This is such an absurd claim to take as your own that it's literally on the wikipedia page! It's also e…

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