Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most • Hacker News Board

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#271

Post by ycombobreaker » Tue, Jun 12, 2018, 2:07 PM UTC

brainwad wrote: post #211

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would gladly earn $1 million per year and spend 75% of it on rent No, you wouldn’t. As income goes higher, long-distance transportation becomes (a) more comfortable and (b) smaller as a fraction of income. De-camping to Washington State and commuting to San Francisco doesn’t make sense at $200,000; it does at $1 or 2 million.

If I earnt a million a year, I wouldn't be commuting more than 5 minutes to to work. Commuting sucks.

If you ever live with anyone else you will probably have to optimize multiple commutes (or proximity to other resources). Your salary likely won't have much impact on that decision.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#272

Post by kamaal » Tue, Jun 12, 2018, 2:08 PM UTC

johnrob wrote: post #127

toasterlovin wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This stage of the demographic transition is a huge problem, IMO. The more I think about it, the more it seems like a ratchet (as in, it only moves in one direction): Basically, two incomes are useful, so both people in a relationship pursue careers. Now they have more money to compete on the housing market. This seems like a good move, so others follow suit. At first this is largely a win for people who pursue this r…

Solution: create a surplus of homes. That will detach price from income. Nothing else will work. (Note: we did this with food and it successfully kept prices low)

Cheap public transit is all.

In case of food, it comes to your nearest super market. So its not just overproduction of food, its also supply chain optimization.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#273

Post by sidrajaram » Tue, Jun 12, 2018, 2:12 PM UTC

kgwgk wrote: post #199

mseebach wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the aggregate isn't important: the thought experiment is the same as if everybody earned $251k and spend $1k on rent -- but the percentage of income spend on rent would be radically different. But yes, if everybody suddenly had $250k disposable income, prices would be higher. I think the point GP is trying to make, is that it matters more if you can afford in absolute dollars to have a family on whatever is left…

And my point is that an “everything else being equal” argument about the income and spending of an individual is not particularly useful when discussing demographic issues.

Yes, the cost of things is more expensive in dense cities, but by 2x-3x for some services and not at all for buying a pair of jeans from a retailer - those prices are pretty much uniform everywhere, modulo state/local taxes. I'll argue that one's quality of life is better in SV on $250k vs $70k in the rural midwest or $100k in a midwestern city - obviously this will depend on spending patterns, which depends on personal preferences. But for me, it's a conscious decision to make more and spend more on a west coast city.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#274

Post by ecpottinger » Tue, Jun 12, 2018, 2:16 PM UTC

AstralStorm wrote: post #219

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For NYC it can be an easy 30-45 minute train ride where you are free to occupy your time with something productive.

Something productive that can be done in a car or train you mean. Not, say: - Being with your kids, spouse or helping them out to school or work - Housekeeping - Working out - Doing anything that requires undisturbed attention

My friend does the Go Train from Oshawa to Toronto every work day. She spends the time on the train either reading a book or watch a video of a show she is following.

On the way home she will sometimes watch a movie and finish it at home. Time on the train does not have to be work or a vegetable.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#275

Post by frockington » Tue, Jun 12, 2018, 2:16 PM UTC

albertgoeswoof wrote: post #257

oriol16 wrote: post #179

Low birth rates also correlate with a tendency to see women and men competing against each other, instead of complementing their roles. Where women acquired male roles, birth rates drop. You can observe this behavior both between and within countries.

This is just sexism. Women should stay in the kitchen in your view I suppose.

Statistics aren't sexist. Looking for reasons to be outraged is counter prodctive to any discussion

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#276

Post by mkirklions » Tue, Jun 12, 2018, 2:19 PM UTC

toasterlovin wrote: post #251

CalRobert wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anecdatum, but: My wife and I live in an expensive city. It's pretty fun. Except, we just had a child. She's pretty fun too. In fact, we think we might like another. She makes all the fun stuff in the city irrelevant (not heading to the bars these days), and the bad stuff in the city pretty horrible. * She's inhaling poison every morning I walk her to creche. * If I let her ride a bike on our street she will die. So,…

Fuck the job. Do your one kid a favor and have another kid. Siblings are just about the most useful things you can have in life.

I hope to have a large family for this reason.

I dont know if I'll have the time to give kids my full attention.

I found my brother was/is the reason I'm a nerd. Sure my dad was a database manager, but I spend hours daily with my brother gaming. I dont even think I wanted to spend a half hour with my 'boring' dad.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#277

Post by WhompingWindows » Tue, Jun 12, 2018, 2:20 PM UTC

toasterlovin wrote: post #251

CalRobert wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anecdatum, but: My wife and I live in an expensive city. It's pretty fun. Except, we just had a child. She's pretty fun too. In fact, we think we might like another. She makes all the fun stuff in the city irrelevant (not heading to the bars these days), and the bad stuff in the city pretty horrible. * She's inhaling poison every morning I walk her to creche. * If I let her ride a bike on our street she will die. So,…

Fuck the job. Do your one kid a favor and have another kid. Siblings are just about the most useful things you can have in life.

Someone once told me: "The best gift you can give to an only child is a sibling. Shows them they aren't the center of the world."

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#278

Post by WhompingWindows » Tue, Jun 12, 2018, 2:22 PM UTC

anoncoward111 wrote: post #90

There's correlation here, but likely not causation. The real underlying cause in the drop in birth rates is an increase in working hours, an increase in commuting times, an increase in college tuition and health care costs, and also an increase in divorce rates. These days, even getting married is an expensive financial arrangement. Having kids is just another layer on that. Housing prices have increased because of c…

There's likely not causation with any individual factor, because it's a multivariable model. There are probably a dozen factors that contribute to the birth rate, including those you mentioned and probably many others.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#279

Post by mkirklions » Tue, Jun 12, 2018, 2:22 PM UTC

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #173

toasterlovin wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This stage of the demographic transition is a huge problem, IMO. The more I think about it, the more it seems like a ratchet (as in, it only moves in one direction): Basically, two incomes are useful, so both people in a relationship pursue careers. Now they have more money to compete on the housing market. This seems like a good move, so others follow suit. At first this is largely a win for people who pursue this r…

Yes, we seem to have gone from women not having the choice to work to women not having the choice to not work.

This is false.

There are 500$/mo rents everywhere and food costs are the lowest in history.

If you dont care to keep up with the Joneses and have minimum wage people cook you food, you can easily live off 1 low-income salary.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#280

Post by JoeAltmaier » Tue, Jun 12, 2018, 2:25 PM UTC

mkirklions wrote: post #279

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, we seem to have gone from women not having the choice to work to women not having the choice to not work.

This is false. There are 500$/mo rents everywhere and food costs are the lowest in history. If you dont care to keep up with the Joneses and have minimum wage people cook you food, you can easily live off 1 low-income salary.

...if you leave the big city? There are not $500/mo rents in many popular places. But sure, Des Moines, Pocatello, you can live like that. And why not - at that salary, you sure aren't going to the Bolshoi Ballet any time soon.