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Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

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Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#251

Post by toasterlovin »

CalRobert wrote: post #218
toasterlovin wrote: post #9

Keep in mind that there is probably a significant selection effect going on there. In other words, if you don't plan on having children, expensive cities are still an option for you. Whereas if you plan on having children, they are not.

Anecdatum, but: My wife and I live in an expensive city. It's pretty fun. Except, we just had a child. She's pretty fun too. In fact, we think we might like another. She makes all the fun stuff in the city irrelevant (not heading to the bars these days), and the bad stuff in the city pretty horrible. * She's inhaling poison every morning I walk her to creche. * If I let her ride a bike on our street she will die. So,…

Fuck the job. Do your one kid a favor and have another kid. Siblings are just about the most useful things you can have in life.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#252

Post by utexaspunk »

dexen wrote: post #244
baddox wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In pretty much every analysis involving housing costs, I try to mention that percentage of income spent on housing is not a great metric. A better metric is absolute income minus housing costs. All else being equal, I would gladly earn $1 million per year and spend 75% of it on rent, because that remaining 25% would be a heck of a lot of money. I doubt this metric would significantly change the conclusions of this ar…

You are missing one important factor: prices of locally rendered services will factor in the high housing costs of the service provider workers, and of service establishments. I.e., all the services will be significantly more expensive just as well. And even goods' prices will reflect the high rent costs, given that stocking & sale of good requires[1] employment of local workers, and purchase/rental of local commerci…

So you need absolute income minus housing costs [PPP]?

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#253

Post by anoncoward111 »

tathougies wrote: post #152
hshehehjdjdjd wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Getting married is expensive? How so?

Getting married in a traditional way is cheap, but most people blow off tradition to get some fancy pinterest barn, with fancy pinterest lights, with some fancy pinterest minister, some fancy pinterest vows, and fancy pinterest invitations. We paid $80 for a marriage license. The church was free. The ceremony was free. The celebrant was free. The wedding was free. We also got married in the most beautiful church in S…

I am really happy for you, and wish you the best in your marriage :)

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#254

Post by alf-pogz »

toasterlovin wrote: post #9

Keep in mind that there is probably a significant selection effect going on there. In other words, if you don't plan on having children, expensive cities are still an option for you. Whereas if you plan on having children, they are not.

Anecdotal, but I put off dating altogether when my salary was low and home prices were skyrocketing in my home town (San Diego). I left San Diego altogether two years ago, but I'm still suffering (perhaps too drastic of a word) from the affects of not even being in a relationship for over half a decade. Meaning, being with women used to come naturally to me, now it's generally awkward after being single for so long.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#255

Post by brixon »

anoncoward111 wrote: post #90

There's correlation here, but likely not causation. The real underlying cause in the drop in birth rates is an increase in working hours, an increase in commuting times, an increase in college tuition and health care costs, and also an increase in divorce rates. These days, even getting married is an expensive financial arrangement. Having kids is just another layer on that. Housing prices have increased because of c…

There are just cultural changes. When I was young it was expected that if you could have kids then you would. You needed them especially as you got old. Today this is not a view shared by all, more and more people are making their own decisions about having kids.

In my family it seems that each generation is having less and less kids. My great grandparents had a 7-10, my grandparents had 5, my parents had 2, I had 1.

I think the world has enough people, so for me one kid was plenty.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#256

Post by nickrivadeneira »

Retric wrote: post #234
mseebach wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the aggregate isn't important: the thought experiment is the same as if everybody earned $251k and spend $1k on rent -- but the percentage of income spend on rent would be radically different. But yes, if everybody suddenly had $250k disposable income, prices would be higher. I think the point GP is trying to make, is that it matters more if you can afford in absolute dollars to have a family on whatever is left…

The problem is you need more space after having kids. If your already spending 75% of your income on rent adding another room is not feasible. Or more basically you need a significant surplus to be able to afford kids.

That entirely depends on the income level you're talking, which is the OP's point. If you're making $10 mil and spending $7.5 mil on housing, you probably already have enough rooms to have kids. And even if you didn't, you could surely find room in your remaining $2.5 mil to add a room onto your house or find a slightly bigger place. This obviously does not apply if you're making $50k... Hence why absolutes are relevant.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#257

Post by albertgoeswoof »

oriol16 wrote: post #179

Low birth rates also correlate with a tendency to see women and men competing against each other, instead of complementing their roles. Where women acquired male roles, birth rates drop. You can observe this behavior both between and within countries.

This is just sexism. Women should stay in the kitchen in your view I suppose.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#258

Post by ppeetteerr »

toasterlovin wrote: post #66
ppeetteerr wrote: post #29

It's a rather specific sample (2010-2016, ages 25-29). I wonder how much of this is coincidence. Is it not possible that both birthrates and home prices have nothing to do with one another but happen to be just following independent trends?

Birth rates are highly likely to be tied to house prices in some way, though if it is causal, and which direction causality flows in, if it is, is probably not knowable. All you really need to know is that larger families compete with smaller families for real estate. But smaller families generally have more available income and they need less real estate . Those facts alone are bound to link birth rates to housing c…

I agree with you and you could even make another argument. It could also be that people these days spend more on experiential activities than physical goods and both child rearing and home ownership are suffering as a consequence.

Correlation studies are fun but hardly informative.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#259

Post by intopieces »

labster wrote: post #73
toasterlovin wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This stage of the demographic transition is a huge problem, IMO. The more I think about it, the more it seems like a ratchet (as in, it only moves in one direction): Basically, two incomes are useful, so both people in a relationship pursue careers. Now they have more money to compete on the housing market. This seems like a good move, so others follow suit. At first this is largely a win for people who pursue this r…

Immigration will offset the demographic implosion, at least if current trends continue. But speaking as someone who studied climate science, a temporary population reduction can only be a good thing for long-term human survival. We're above the carrying capacity of Earth for humans, and though we've done a lot of tricks to expand capacity, we're currently putting a large swath of the biosphere in danger. If there are…

What is the carrying capacity of earth for Humans? I recall in the 70s there was hype about the “Population Bomb” but those fears were never borne out.

As well, what makes you think we will reach an equilibrium for good neighborhoods? Some housing will be abandoned, causing blight; blight causes good neighborhoods to become less desirable, and they spiral down from there.

Detroit is a great example of what happens when neighborhoods lose people.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#260

Post by sulam »

AstralStorm wrote: post #219
kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For NYC it can be an easy 30-45 minute train ride where you are free to occupy your time with something productive.

Something productive that can be done in a car or train you mean. Not, say: - Being with your kids, spouse or helping them out to school or work - Housekeeping - Working out - Doing anything that requires undisturbed attention

You can trivially get a 30 minute commute just within SF. I imagine other expensive cities are similar. Living within a few minutes of work is a real luxury for all but remote workers.
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