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Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

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Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#171

Post by bojan »

bayesian_horse wrote: post #126

Considering generations in the past, and still in a lot of poor countries have raised multiple children in the smallest of spaces, I just don't believe there is a causative relation. Much more plausible to me is the association to women's education, causing women to delay their first pregnancy and opt out of further children. Also there seems to be an association between general misery or fatality and birth rates.

While it is of course possible to raise a lot of children in a tiny space, it is not something you necessarily want to do. Especially if no-one in your environment is doing it.

It is not really a happy life if you have to spend your evenings in utter silence because there is a baby or a toddler sleeping in the same room two meters away.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#172

Post by rubber_duck »

Kluny wrote: post #150
jsonne wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you square that with somewhere like Denmark with it's equally abysmal yet they have way less working hours and a large social safety net?

Denmark is actually having a baby boom right now. It's still a low absolute birth rate, but it's been higher for the last couple years.

Immigrants included ?

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#173

Post by tonyedgecombe »

toasterlovin wrote: post #49
pitt1980 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering the ratio of career gains that go to those working in a few expensive cities, even if this is largely selection effects, I'm not sure this paints a very rosy picture of the society we're creating. I'm reminded of how few heads of EU states are parents https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do-childless-leaders-mean-...

This stage of the demographic transition is a huge problem, IMO. The more I think about it, the more it seems like a ratchet (as in, it only moves in one direction): Basically, two incomes are useful, so both people in a relationship pursue careers. Now they have more money to compete on the housing market. This seems like a good move, so others follow suit. At first this is largely a win for people who pursue this r…

Yes, we seem to have gone from women not having the choice to work to women not having the choice to not work.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#174

Post by tonyedgecombe »

fooker wrote: post #35

I once attended a lecture by a well known statistics professor, who demonstrated a similar correlation between the price of a kg of apples and the rate of divorce in his country.

http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#175

Post by coandco »

fooker wrote: post #35

I once attended a lecture by a well known statistics professor, who demonstrated a similar correlation between the price of a kg of apples and the rate of divorce in his country.

http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations seems relevant here.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#176

Post by Rebelgecko »

fixermark wrote: post #113

Obvious conclusion: children wreck property values. (this result published in "The Journal Of Correlation Implying Causation ;) )

worded slightly differently, "adding 1+ people to your family who don't work will decrease your disposable income"

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#177

Post by arcticbull »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #125
hshehehjdjdjd wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You won’t, because you were smart and rented instead. :)

Woah, when did renting became the smart choice?

There's a great writeup on this -- I may have even seen it here [1]. On average house prices tend to keep up with inflation and trail the market across the US. In specific markets that may not be true, then there's all your expenses. Ultimately, it depends on your personal situation if you should buy or rent, and the New York Times has a great calculator [2].

tl;dr: It's not always the smart choice to buy. Or to rent.

[1] https://affordanything.com/is-renting-better-than-buying-sho...

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-cal...

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#178

Post by friendzis »

nostrademons wrote: post #135
defterGoose wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In some alternate reality where everyone's goals and chosen locale are identically that of their parents, yes.

In theory, if your goals and chosen locale are not identical to your parents, you can sell their house for cash and use the cash to buy a house in your chosen locale. In practice, a large percentage of the population are getting screwed because a.) their parents lost their home in the foreclosure crisis, the bank repossessed it, and it got sold to a private investor b.) their parents had inadequate savings and needed…

I think it is even simpler than that. According to wiki, life expectancy in USA is roughly 80 years. If the children are had at roughly 25-30 years, by the time property is inherited, children are 50-55 - age when they are expected to have grown their own children, not the best age to start a family. Under the same assumptions, grandchildren are 20-30, therefore at a good age to inherit the property. Yet, if we factor in fertility rate of 1.8, that's 3.25 grandchildren on average or 30% stake at the inheritance. More like mortgage deposit, rather than a place to live.

For an average person it is not reasonable to expect to inherit a property during age of settling down when that is most needed.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#179

Post by oriol16 »

Low birth rates also correlate with a tendency to see women and men competing against each other, instead of complementing their roles. Where women acquired male roles, birth rates drop. You can observe this behavior both between and within countries.

Re: Birth Rates Dropped Most in U.S. Counties Where Home Prices Grew Most

#180

Post by kgwgk »

baddox wrote: post #37
lkrubner wrote: post #20

From previous: " In nations in the West, an important limiting factor is the ability to get one’s own apartment. That is, the ratio of average male wage to average rent. In the USA, the happiest year for this ratio was 1958, when people were spending 22% of their income on rent, on average. Not by coincidence, this was the peak year of the Baby Boom. In some sense, it was the best year in history to be a young white…

In pretty much every analysis involving housing costs, I try to mention that percentage of income spent on housing is not a great metric. A better metric is absolute income minus housing costs. All else being equal, I would gladly earn $1 million per year and spend 75% of it on rent, because that remaining 25% would be a heck of a lot of money. I doubt this metric would significantly change the conclusions of this ar…

It’s not about you, it’s about aggregate housing costs. If everyone was earning $1mn and spending $750k on rent, the remaining $250k may not be a lot of money.

But of course you’re right, everything else being equal I would also be happy to earn $1bn and spend 99% on rent.

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