Black Swan' Author Taleb: Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse
1–10 of 42 posts
Re: Black Swan' Author Taleb: Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse
#2I always felt that Soros was better than Buffet but could never adequately explain why. I like Nassim's explanation that since Soros made more decisions, his outcome is less likely due to luck.
In other words, the more your ability is tested, the more likely your results are closer to the expected value as randomness negates itself out.
Re: Black Swan' Author Taleb: Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse
#3> Canada has the lowest ratio of net debt to gross domestic product among the Group of Seven industrialized countries
If we're including household debt this does not square with what I've read elsewhere.
p.s. I've immensely enjoyed various sharp screeds from recent years ripping Taleb a new one:
http://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2009/07/17/nassim-taleb-cl...
Re: Black Swan' Author Taleb: Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse
#4> Canada has the lowest ratio of net debt to gross domestic product among the Group of Seven industrialized countries If we're including household debt this does not square with what I've read elsewhere. p.s. I've immensely enjoyed various sharp screeds from recent years ripping Taleb a new one: http://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2009/07/17/nassim-taleb-cl... http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/search?q=taleb
Those Taleb take-downs are well worth a read. Taleb makes for good media soundbites as a contrarian; but to me it seems more like anti-intellectualism for the educated. I'm not sure why he deserves that platform he apparently has.
From the first piece: "So why do people listen to this guy? Part of it is doubtless the “famous for being famous” effect. Taleb is witty and clever, and ruthlessly promoted himself as a public figure after his trading days were over. Not a bad strat for success in the modern media culture: grab the megaphone and declare yourself a genius. Everyone wants to think they’re more of a mental bigshot than the eggheads who run things. Plus, it’s not like Jim Simons has time to write Financial Times articles. He’s too busy making money more or less proving people like Taleb wrong."
Re: Black Swan' Author Taleb: Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse
#5I always felt that Soros was better than Buffet but could never adequately explain why. I like Nassim's explanation that since Soros made more decisions, his outcome is less likely due to luck. In other words, the more your ability is tested, the more likely your results are closer to the expected value as randomness negates itself out.
His characterization was interesting, but I'm not sure if I agree. Since the crisis, Warren Buffet acquired 10% perpetual preferred stock of Goldman Sachs, invested $2.6 billion into Swiss Re, and acquired Burlington Northern for $24 billion. Three deals, each of which was different in composition, cost, and market. Moreover, I suspect each will be success and none wholly initiated by a "certain earnings profile." Nonetheless, while I think the comparison is meaningless, the underlying logic is intellectually attractive.
Re: Black Swan' Author Taleb: Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse
#6> Canada has the lowest ratio of net debt to gross domestic product among the Group of Seven industrialized countries If we're including household debt this does not square with what I've read elsewhere. p.s. I've immensely enjoyed various sharp screeds from recent years ripping Taleb a new one: http://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2009/07/17/nassim-taleb-cl... http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/search?q=taleb
Those Taleb take-downs are well worth a read. Taleb makes for good media soundbites as a contrarian; but to me it seems more like anti-intellectualism for the educated. I'm not sure why he deserves that platform he apparently has. From the first piece: "So why do people listen to this guy? Part of it is doubtless the “famous for being famous” effect. Taleb is witty and clever, and ruthlessly promoted himself as a pub…
I dislike pyschoanaylsis. They're really neat explanation but they're well, lack explaining power.
Plus they don't do much for learning about the truth, and they're more about attacking a person's character.
Re: Black Swan' Author Taleb: Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse
#7> Canada has the lowest ratio of net debt to gross domestic product among the Group of Seven industrialized countries If we're including household debt this does not square with what I've read elsewhere. p.s. I've immensely enjoyed various sharp screeds from recent years ripping Taleb a new one: http://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2009/07/17/nassim-taleb-cl... http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/search?q=taleb
My view of Canada is that they have a large amount of natural resources, some even renewable natural resources, on a per-person basis. The USA has a large amount of natural resources as well, however, 10 times the population to spread it amongst.
Re: Black Swan' Author Taleb: Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse
#8I always felt that Soros was better than Buffet but could never adequately explain why. I like Nassim's explanation that since Soros made more decisions, his outcome is less likely due to luck. In other words, the more your ability is tested, the more likely your results are closer to the expected value as randomness negates itself out.
In Buffett's early days (when he was returning over 30% year after year) he did lots of arbitrage. He mostly got out of it in the 1960s. Taleb probably doesn't know about that.
Re: Black Swan' Author Taleb: Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse
#9> Canada has the lowest ratio of net debt to gross domestic product among the Group of Seven industrialized countries If we're including household debt this does not square with what I've read elsewhere. p.s. I've immensely enjoyed various sharp screeds from recent years ripping Taleb a new one: http://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2009/07/17/nassim-taleb-cl... http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/search?q=taleb
My view of Canada is that they have a large amount of natural resources, some even renewable natural resources, on a per-person basis. The USA has a large amount of natural resources as well, however, 10 times the population to spread it amongst.
A bet on Canada is a bet on the commodities markets, plain and simple. Canada is fucked if Bob Prechter is right. Canada does great if Jim Rogers is right.
Re: Black Swan' Author Taleb: Stimulus Made Economic Crisis Worse
#10> Canada has the lowest ratio of net debt to gross domestic product among the Group of Seven industrialized countries If we're including household debt this does not square with what I've read elsewhere. p.s. I've immensely enjoyed various sharp screeds from recent years ripping Taleb a new one: http://scottlocklin.wordpress.com/2009/07/17/nassim-taleb-cl... http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/search?q=taleb
I have no ideas what those people are talking about in some of their arguments. However, I'll keep the allegation about Taleb in mind.