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Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment

nytimes.com

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Re: Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment

#71

Post by gkanai »

mark_l_watson wrote: post #65

Good article for information and anecdotes but it also rubbed me wrong: smacking a bit of American Exceptionalism. I am so used to hearing what is basically propaganda in our press about how much better we are than the rest of the world, that now articles like this inspire scepticism. Our country (USA) does indeed have a lot of advantages with: technology and geographic isolation. But we also have problems in income…

> I expect the Chinese to go through the expensive and long process of owning the entire stack, micro chips, and up.

None of America's allies have chosen to "go through the expensive and long process of owning the entire stack" - America's allies use Windows, Android, Qualcomm, Intel, etc.

If China really does want it's own home-built silicon running it's own written-at-home operating systems, they need decades and they'd just replicate what Microsoft or Google have done to date (and probably less well.) I don't doubt that the CCP do want that independence from American technology, but to truly be independent is really quite an extreme proposition.

Re: Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment

#72

Post by fouc »

shasheene wrote: post #4

I think history will suggest that the end of Deng Xiaoping's long-term strategy of "hide our capacities and bide our time" around 2015 was too premature to meet the government of China's long-term goals. The moderate amount of international goodwill that existed seems to have completely evaporated and been replaced with significant amounts of suspicion following the events of the past few years in the region. Because…

> the demographic situation in the US is highly favorable compared to all other advanced economies

How can we determine this? Which economies are we talking about?

Does anyone with economics knowledge know if there are formulas/math around demographics in order to determine healthy vs unhealthy demographics (if such a concept is even relevant)?

Re: Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment

#73

Post by kasey_junk »

mark_l_watson wrote: post #65

Good article for information and anecdotes but it also rubbed me wrong: smacking a bit of American Exceptionalism. I am so used to hearing what is basically propaganda in our press about how much better we are than the rest of the world, that now articles like this inspire scepticism. Our country (USA) does indeed have a lot of advantages with: technology and geographic isolation. But we also have problems in income…

I’m not refuting your broader point (I have no opinion).

But corruption & income inequality exist in China as well. Depending on how you measure China has waaaay worse problems in those areas than the States do.

Re: Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment

#74

Post by chapium »

obelix_ wrote: post #21
shasheene wrote: post #4

I think history will suggest that the end of Deng Xiaoping's long-term strategy of "hide our capacities and bide our time" around 2015 was too premature to meet the government of China's long-term goals. The moderate amount of international goodwill that existed seems to have completely evaporated and been replaced with significant amounts of suspicion following the events of the past few years in the region. Because…

Idk I think US has bigger problems than whether it's semiconductor tech gets stolen. Social media and the news media have created such a dysfunctional environment that I am finding it increasingly hard to believe constructive debate/solutions on anything are possible until the underlying environment producing the dysfunction is cleaned up. If not we are just going to get more and more leaders from both sides propped…

Fyi- https://philosophy.stackexchange.com/questions/24622/what-fa...

You have a good point, but because we have a problem with social media does not mean we dont need to worry about the semiconductor industry.

Re: Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment

#75

Post by kadenshep »

vetinari wrote: post #58
endtime wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If not we are just going to get more and more leaders from both sides propped up purely for skills to pander. While I share some of your concerns about the media, isn't this (just an uncharitable way of stating) the entire purpose of democracy?

Democracy assumes constructive attitude towards debate. Today we are getting it's better to be wrong with our side, than right with the opponent partisanship instead.

Ideally democracy also assumes, for the most part, that the majority of the system is comprised of rational actors.

But it's as they say. In theory, but not in practice.

Re: Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment

#76

Post by dnomad »

mark_l_watson wrote: post #65

Good article for information and anecdotes but it also rubbed me wrong: smacking a bit of American Exceptionalism. I am so used to hearing what is basically propaganda in our press about how much better we are than the rest of the world, that now articles like this inspire scepticism. Our country (USA) does indeed have a lot of advantages with: technology and geographic isolation. But we also have problems in income…

Like most things you read in NY Times it's about 5-10 years too late. It's been widely known for a while that China imports huge amounts of microchips and this creates enormous dependence on the West while also posing as a significant security risk [1]. China has no choice but to invest tens of billions into growing an alternate, "reliable" semi-conductor industry [2] and there's reason to believe the real number may be a multiple of the headline number. Nobody knows whether China will pull it off; the next ten years will tell but there's reason to believe they're already closing in on 14nm fabrication (no hard evidence here yet) and they're in it for the long game.

I suspect this will be a big problem for existing chip makers in the long run. Chinese chip makers will happily attack the fat margins that exist today and will offer (quasi-subsidized) prices that will prove irresistible elsewhere.

[1] http://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-china-will-benefit-a...

[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-01/china-is-...

Re: Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment

#77

Post by shasheene »

fouc wrote: post #72
shasheene wrote: post #4

I think history will suggest that the end of Deng Xiaoping's long-term strategy of "hide our capacities and bide our time" around 2015 was too premature to meet the government of China's long-term goals. The moderate amount of international goodwill that existed seems to have completely evaporated and been replaced with significant amounts of suspicion following the events of the past few years in the region. Because…

> the demographic situation in the US is highly favorable compared to all other advanced economies How can we determine this? Which economies are we talking about? Does anyone with economics knowledge know if there are formulas/math around demographics in order to determine healthy vs unhealthy demographics (if such a concept is even relevant)?

> How can we determine this?

Using a population pyramid graph [0]. You can see the data in [1].

It's a nice way to visualize the amount of working aged people vs dependents (youth and elderly).

In short, a bulge of working age people ("demographic dividend") is good for the economy in the short-term, but unsustainable. The 'baby boomer' generation was one such demographic dividend.

China talks about the '4-2-1 problem' (1 child needs to pay for living costs for their 2 parents and 4 grandparents). If you search for that term you can come across lots of articles.

Interstingly, what is ideal depends on the type of economy: in developed economies closer to retirement is supposedly the most economically productive period of ones life (eg, information workers), but in less developed economies youth is the most productive period (eg, labor workers in factories).

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_pyramid

[1] https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2...

Re: Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment

#78

Post by dnomad »

gkanai wrote: post #71
mark_l_watson wrote: post #65

Good article for information and anecdotes but it also rubbed me wrong: smacking a bit of American Exceptionalism. I am so used to hearing what is basically propaganda in our press about how much better we are than the rest of the world, that now articles like this inspire scepticism. Our country (USA) does indeed have a lot of advantages with: technology and geographic isolation. But we also have problems in income…

> I expect the Chinese to go through the expensive and long process of owning the entire stack, micro chips, and up. None of America's allies have chosen to "go through the expensive and long process of owning the entire stack" - America's allies use Windows, Android, Qualcomm, Intel, etc. If China really does want it's own home-built silicon running it's own written-at-home operating systems, they need decades and t…

There's certainly no need to write custom operating systems. China already happily customizes Android and Linux extensively across a wide range of devices. You can see this today just by walking down the street where there are street lights running linux.

As for silicon China doesn't have much choice in the matter. Their dependence on American silicon may in fact be their greatest security risk. It's clear that the US and its allies will weaponize this advantage (see Stuxnet) so anybody relying on these chips is ultimately at their mercy.

Re: Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment

#79

Post by kinsomo »

nrp wrote: post #8
fulafel wrote: post #2

> In return, the company — once a symbol of China’s progress and engineering know-how — will be allowed to buy the American-made microchips, software and other tools it needs to survive. Aren't most mobile device SoC/ASICs made by non-US companies like TSMC and Samsung?

The fabrication of SoCs for mobile is mostly at TSMC in Taiwan and Samsung in Korea, but the ownership of the chips is American. TSMC manufactures the die, but it's fair to say that Qualcomm is the one "making" it since they own the IP and do the front and back end design-work. Similarly, you can say Apple makes the iPhone, even though final assembly is done at Foxconn or Wistron.

> The fabrication of SoCs for mobile is mostly at TSMC in Taiwan

Given China's attitude towards Taiwan, it might be tempted to acquire TSMC's technology by military force at some point in the future.

Re: Near-Collapse of ZTE May Be China’s Sputnik Moment

#80

Post by kinsomo »

dmode wrote: post #17
xevb3k wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless I’m mistaken, your list contains both semiconductor companies with and without fabs. I think for this discussion semiconductor companies with fabrication facilities are more interesting. How much fab is still done in the US?

I believe almost no Fab manufacturing happens in the US anymore. This is why the article seems a little hyperbolic to me. I understand US companies lead in chip design, but if Asian companies are manufacturing the chips, how long will it take to reverse engineer? To add to this, many engineers working for these American Giants are Asians and can be poached back. Look how it little it took for Chinese manufacturers to…

> I believe almost no Fab manufacturing happens in the US anymore.

I kinds lost count at least half way though, but this list has about 60-70 US fabs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_semiconductor_fabricat...

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