81–90 of 244 posts
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Teslas already have emergency braking and lane departure warning...
Doesn't seem to be a working emergency braking system, as those poor souls who plowed into stationary obstacles found out.
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I think these are already fairly close to human fatality rates. Tessa is well over 300,000 cars sold, if the average car has 10k miles that's 3 billion. Edit: actual number well over that https://electrek.co/2016/11/13/tesla-autopilot-billion-miles... Using US fatality rates you would expect ~34 deaths from that. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the... Edit, my numbers where low. So, as far as…
A few things you’ll have to correct for: - Tesla’s cars are newer and more expensive than the average car on US roads (making them safer) - Tesla’s Autopilot mostly, if not only, gets used on roads that are safer than average. - Tesla drivers may have had to intervene a lot to prevent more deaths. - not all those Tesla’s ended up on US roads (probably not something with large impact)
The trend of things machines can do better than people really only goes in one direction. Further people are vastly worse at driving than they think, over 1.25 million people die per year due to car accidents. That's insane.
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Lots of us younger folk are cool with it too. The point is that having it as an option, rather than being stuck at home unable to drive, is a big quality of life issue.
I am still relatively younger and I work in an office literally located in a train station. I still avoid public transit as much as possible. The only exception is Amtrak. Public transportation sucks.
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What is definition of "mass"? Waymo almost certainly will launch this year a fully self driving service, accessible to anyone, "within parts of the Phoenix metropolitan area, including Chandler, Tempe, Mesa and Gilbert" ( https://waymo.com/apply/faq/ ) which is where their pilot program has been running for several months now. See e.g. https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/10/it-sure-looks-like-waym... They already have…
What makes you think "works in Phoenix" is anywhere near "works in most places" ? I think the difficulty of driving in Phoenix suburbs is maybe 1% of the difficulty of driving in urban areas, anywhere with snow and rain, etc.
"Phoenix is the capital and most populous city of the U.S. state of Arizona. With 1,626,078 people (as of 2017), Phoenix is the fifth most populous city nationwide"
Explain the criteria you used to classify it as "suburbs".
Phoenix is the first metro area to launch the service.
Waymo (and others) are testing in other places.
From https://waymo.com/ontheroad/: Kirkland (lots of rain), Bay Area (including San Francisco), Detroit (snow during winter), Atlanta, Austin.
I don't see how you arrived at the 1% and 1% of what?
If it took Waymo 10 years to drive in Phonix, Arizona, it'll take them 1000 years to improve enough to drive in Detroit?
Those things are pretty binary: either they can drive autonomously or they can't.
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Insurance companies which have hard data will lower your rates if your car has autopilot. I am sure they base that on hard data I don't have. If you have better data than I would love to see it. But, IMO using ballpark numbers is much better than simply having a bad feeling about something. These cars are not going to fail the same way people do. Computers really fuck up in broad daylight, people get drunk and drive…
> Insurance companies which have hard data will lower your rates if your car has autopilot. That's probably because Tesla is liable. And it could be that at this point they don't mind operating at a loss in this area.
That's ridiculous, they might base this on some other benifit such as type of owner, but the industry is not just going to subsidize 100,000+ plus people. I am not saying it's fool proof, but your bias is showing.
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I am still relatively younger and I work in an office literally located in a train station. I still avoid public transit as much as possible. The only exception is Amtrak. Public transportation sucks.
That very much depends on where you live. It's generally a lot better in Europe for a variety of reasons: historical, political and geographical. I use public transit quite a bit here in Vancouver but my limited experience of it in SF gives me some appreciation why people might not want to use it there.
When people trot out their arguments against public transportation they always refer to the inefficiencies and completely ignore the human element. No one wants to be crammed in a small space with a bunch of strangers every day.
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What makes you think "works in Phoenix" is anywhere near "works in most places" ? I think the difficulty of driving in Phoenix suburbs is maybe 1% of the difficulty of driving in urban areas, anywhere with snow and rain, etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix,_Arizona "Phoenix is the capital and most populous city of the U.S. state of Arizona. With 1,626,078 people (as of 2017), Phoenix is the fifth most populous city nationwide" Explain the criteria you used to classify it as "suburbs". Phoenix is the first metro area to launch the service. Waymo (and others) are testing in other places. From https://waymo.com/ontheroad/ : Kirkland (…
GP's assertion that driving in Phoenix is easier than most other places is absolutely correct.
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A few things you’ll have to correct for: - Tesla’s cars are newer and more expensive than the average car on US roads (making them safer) - Tesla’s Autopilot mostly, if not only, gets used on roads that are safer than average. - Tesla drivers may have had to intervene a lot to prevent more deaths. - not all those Tesla’s ended up on US roads (probably not something with large impact)
Don't get me wrong they very well may be significantly less safe than an attentive human driver in good conditions on good roads. However, they are reasonably close and the average driver is not going to improve any time soon while self driving cars will. The trend of things machines can do better than people really only goes in one direction. Further people are vastly worse at driving than they think, over 1.25 mill…
On top of that, when you factor in the utility of driving a car, the risk/reward ratio looks stellar. Humans are better drivers than given credit for, and it will be some time (much longer than a lot of enthusiasts will admit) before computers manage to match that.
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That's a lot of guesswork. It is very difficult to believe that an automated system with such a limited concept of its surroundings is equal/superior to a human driver. Therefore, we need better evidence, and this means no pulling of numbers from thin air.
Insurance companies which have hard data will lower your rates if your car has autopilot. I am sure they base that on hard data I don't have. If you have better data than I would love to see it. But, IMO using ballpark numbers is much better than simply having a bad feeling about something. These cars are not going to fail the same way people do. Computers really fuck up in broad daylight, people get drunk and drive…
What this shows is that Tesla isn’t even on the path to self-driving technology. It sounds like “Autopilot” has no world model (or an extremely basic one)—it ignores stationary objects because it can’t tell whether it’s approaching something on the side of a road that curves away versus an obstacle in the lane. It can’t tell because it doesn’t know what the car is going to do and what the lane is going to do. That’s…
It might be even worse than that. They likely think that they are on the path, because they are running a massive data-collection campaign on the sensor suite installed on the fleet. But the reality might be different. Running a data collection campaign is easy. Engineering products with machine learning is hard. Most of the teams don't even know what they need to know, to do it right. And so they engage into classic…
Not sure why you think so. If this is correct, there should be many other equivalent or better campaigns currently running at the same scale, right?
On the contrary, I imagine that data is a very significant limiting factor in this field.
Both data and computation are hard problems. AFAIK Tesla should still be leading in the former category by virtue of the number of its data collection devices. Crucially, they are collecting training data (real world human input) with which they will be able to train and test models.
Note, I am not saying that Tesla's current models are good, or that they will easily improve them. Only that you are too dismissive of the potential advantage that Tesla's data affords them.