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Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

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Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#161

Post by mywittyname »

ebbv wrote: post #148
mhb wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Become a good strategy? Pensions for government workers have been a thing for a very long time.

Pensions are not inherently a problem any more than any other form of retirement account is. HN should be above this kind of ignorant rhetoric.

Not if they are fully funded. But the issue is that most pensions systems are woefully underfunded, thus, are a huge risk.

If pension payouts floated as a percentage of overall asset value, then they would a great retirement strategy. But promising people a guaranteed (generous) fixed-income is not sustainable in the long-term.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#162

Post by jpzisme »

maxxxxx wrote: post #66
mhneu wrote: post #46

2020: policies put in place under this administration will come home to roost during the next administration, which will get the blame. This lag between economic policy and outcomes is a big reason the US has such a disingenuous public debate. Getting what you can in the short term, while being deceptive about long term effects, has become a good strategy. [1] [1] https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/12/18/opinion/republi…

" 2020: policies put in place under this administration will come home to roost during the next administration, which will get the blame." That has often been the case. Bush suffered through Clinton's internet bubble. then Obama suffered through Bush's real estate bubble. Trump now benefits from Obama's policies. We'll see what happens after Trump.

Despite partisan bickering, this is a very insightful comment that illustrates a long-standing problem in government, politics, and economics.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#163

Post by Retric »

xyzzyz wrote: post #154
ebbv wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pensions are not inherently a problem any more than any other form of retirement account is. HN should be above this kind of ignorant rhetoric.

Of course they are more of a problem, just like a mortgage is more risky than saving up to buy a house with cash upfront — pensions create a long term liability in a way that putting cash in employee 401k doesn’t. Even more importantly, with pensions you’re taking a mortgage that is deferred for a few decades, and someone else than you will be responsible for paying it off — by the time the pension benefits come to m…

Unfunded pensions do that, but the government could easily mandate all pensions are 110% fully funded.

Really, it's an issue of policy not pensions.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#164

Post by jghn »

mhneu wrote: post #46

2020: policies put in place under this administration will come home to roost during the next administration, which will get the blame. This lag between economic policy and outcomes is a big reason the US has such a disingenuous public debate. Getting what you can in the short term, while being deceptive about long term effects, has become a good strategy. [1] [1] https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/12/18/opinion/republi…

In fact, even if happens sooner, if there’s any form of a blue wave in 2018 they’ll be blamed as well

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#165

Post by mywittyname »

forapurpose wrote: post #140
maxxxxx wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

During Clinton's time there was a huge run-up in the stock market fueled b a lot of internet companies. Clinton got all the credit for the growth during that time and then Bush suffered through the predictable collapse.

> During Clinton's time there was a huge run-up in the stock market fueled b a lot of internet companies. I'm not sure the dot-com boom and bust affected the rest of the economy nearly as much as it affected our industry. If there was a recession, it was the smallest in decades: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth-annual

The recession happened just before Bush's election (officially starting in March 2000). The .com bust had a huge impact on the tech sector, but the Enron & Worldcom scandals hit the rest of the economy hard.

It was a modest recession, but it wiped out a huge amount of wealth held by "main street" investors. It was bad enough that Bush, a very, very pro-business president, signed into law the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which is widely criticized as an onerous and needless regulation by conservatives.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#166

Post by moorhosj »

megaman22 wrote: post #113
ams6110 wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump benefits from Obama's policies by reversing them.

It's startling what the growth on my 401k has done since November 2016. Essentially flat for years before, then immediately jumping, once the election results were in. Q1 2018 was a bit sluggish, but it's back on that tragectory again. Even outside the market, people are hiring again, companies are making investments, it's a hell of a turn around.

“People are hiring again”, any data to back this up? BLS seems to disagree:

- The United States added almost 3 million jobs in 2014, 2.7 million in 2015 and 2.2 million in 2016.

- The U.S. economy added 2 million jobs in 2017

http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/05/news/economy/december-2017-j...

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#167

Post by metalliqaz »

mandeepj wrote: post #35
alex_young wrote: post #24

Remember that economists have predicted 15 of the last 7 recessions. Hold on to your hats.

> predicted 15 of the last 7 recessions Did you mean to say 17 instead of 7?

He said it correctly. It's a common joke among economists and pundits.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#168

Post by sykh »

xyzzyz wrote: post #154
ebbv wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pensions are not inherently a problem any more than any other form of retirement account is. HN should be above this kind of ignorant rhetoric.

Of course they are more of a problem, just like a mortgage is more risky than saving up to buy a house with cash upfront — pensions create a long term liability in a way that putting cash in employee 401k doesn’t. Even more importantly, with pensions you’re taking a mortgage that is deferred for a few decades, and someone else than you will be responsible for paying it off — by the time the pension benefits come to m…

...pensions create a long term liability in a way that putting cash in employee 401k doesn’t.

Assuming we don’t want to live in a society in which vast numbers of elderly live in penury this isn’t true. It’s well known that when retirement savings are the responsibility of the emoloyee then they don’t save enough.

What you say about bad governance is certainly true and incompetent or badly incentivized leadership will exacerbate problems. I don’t know what the solution is for the U.S. but the current system is going to make us end up with a society with large numbers of destitute elderly. Shifting the onus to the employee via 401Ks is just kicking the can down the road so to speak. It also allows politicians and voters off the hook because the liabilities aren’t on the books. On paper it looks good but the reckoning will occur.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#169

Post by metalliqaz »

defen wrote: post #160
komali2 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I always think of it in disaster tiers. Market slowdown, you'll want your bonds. Recession, you'll want your cash. Depression, you'll want gold and barterable goods. Economic collapse or apocalypse, you'll want food, medicine, and alcohol (possibly the most barterable good, also delicious). In any case anybody reading this in a major city faces non zero likelihood of disaster (take your pick for your city, hurricane,…

> Economic collapse or apocalypse, you'll want food, medicine, and alcohol (possibly the most barterable good, also delicious). Also: Potassium iodide in case of nuclear fallout ($9 for 2-week supply) Chlorine dioxide for water purification ($10 for 1-week supply) Both are pretty shelf stable (4-6 years) so you don't need to keep buying them.

sounds like I would have to buy them again after 4-6 years

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#170

Post by appstateguy »

nickik wrote: post #137
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." Be very careful betting on the market going down. You not only have to be right, you have to be right soon enough.

I hate that statement. Because people who say it claim they were right based on it, when they were clearly wrong and just trying to excuse their failure. Saying 'at some point in the future prices might be lower' without a time attached to it is an intellectually empty statement.

The thing to understand about shorting is that your losses have no upper bounds. You short a stock at $100 and it goes up to $1,000, you now OWE $900. Here's [0] a story of a guy going to bed with $30k in his ETrade and waking up to a $106k debt call.

[0] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/help-my-short-position-got...

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