Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020 • Hacker News Board

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#71

Post by mhb » Fri, Jun 08, 2018, 4:18 PM UTC

mhneu wrote: post #46

2020: policies put in place under this administration will come home to roost during the next administration, which will get the blame. This lag between economic policy and outcomes is a big reason the US has such a disingenuous public debate. Getting what you can in the short term, while being deceptive about long term effects, has become a good strategy. [1] [1] https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/12/18/opinion/republi…

Become a good strategy? Pensions for government workers have been a thing for a very long time.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#72

Post by salviasloth » Fri, Jun 08, 2018, 4:18 PM UTC

maxxxxx wrote: post #66

mhneu wrote: post #46

2020: policies put in place under this administration will come home to roost during the next administration, which will get the blame. This lag between economic policy and outcomes is a big reason the US has such a disingenuous public debate. Getting what you can in the short term, while being deceptive about long term effects, has become a good strategy. [1] [1] https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/12/18/opinion/republi…

" 2020: policies put in place under this administration will come home to roost during the next administration, which will get the blame." That has often been the case. Bush suffered through Clinton's internet bubble. then Obama suffered through Bush's real estate bubble. Trump now benefits from Obama's policies. We'll see what happens after Trump.

Clintons internet bubble?

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#73

Post by maxxxxx » Fri, Jun 08, 2018, 4:18 PM UTC

patrickg_zill wrote: post #60

My inner skeptic asks: What is Bernanke's record on predictions that he has made in the past? He said that subprime was "contained" in 2008, IIRC. The Mises Institute (an avowed hater of the Fed) has this, for example: https://mises.org/library/ben-bernanke-was-incredibly-uncann...

Yes, in 2008 he didn't see the problems right in his face. He was supposed to be a great scholar of the Great Depression but seemed to have learned nothing from it. Maybe he has learned from his own crisis...

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#74

Post by alter_eco123 » Fri, Jun 08, 2018, 4:19 PM UTC

ianai wrote: post #40

komali2 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're about to argue that there wouldn't be business cycles or depressions if we managed to overthrow capitalism, I don't think people are going to disagree with you lol

No, I’m saying that without the Fed and the federal government acting to rationally steer markets the markets will go off a cliff and not come back. Just like Bernanke said here. Regulators matter. When the government stimulates the already hot market with lax taxes and high spending it’s like pouring liquid oxygen onto a flame.

> I’m saying that without the Fed and the federal government acting to rationally steer markets the markets will go off a cliff and not come back.

So how did markets exist at all when the Fed was created? By your logic, they would have "gone off a cliff and never come back" long before that.

> When the government stimulates the already hot market with lax taxes and high spending it’s like pouring liquid oxygen onto a flame

Even after all the stimulus so far? No diminishing returns, ever?

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#75

Post by maxxxxx » Fri, Jun 08, 2018, 4:20 PM UTC

salviasloth wrote: post #72

maxxxxx wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

" 2020: policies put in place under this administration will come home to roost during the next administration, which will get the blame." That has often been the case. Bush suffered through Clinton's internet bubble. then Obama suffered through Bush's real estate bubble. Trump now benefits from Obama's policies. We'll see what happens after Trump.

Clintons internet bubble?

During Clinton's time there was a huge run-up in the stock market fueled b a lot of internet companies. Clinton got all the credit for the growth during that time and then Bush suffered through the predictable collapse.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#76

Post by mindcrime » Fri, Jun 08, 2018, 4:20 PM UTC

wjn0 wrote: post #3

When I read articles like this I wish I had a better grounding in economics, I guess specifically macroeconomics? Is there a well-known, digestible textbook?

Basic Economics - Thomas Sowell https://www.amazon.com/Basic-Economics-Common-Sense-Economy/...

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#77

Post by simonh » Fri, Jun 08, 2018, 4:20 PM UTC

komali2 wrote: post #23

ianai wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re probably basing that on data benefiting from a supervisory political institution. If that data exist.

If you're about to argue that there wouldn't be business cycles or depressions if we managed to overthrow capitalism, I don't think people are going to disagree with you lol

True, in most communist systems instead you get really slow growth, with occasional pauses in growth at all alongside frequent severe shortages of essential goods.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#78

Post by partiallypro » Fri, Jun 08, 2018, 4:22 PM UTC

wjn0 wrote: post #3

When I read articles like this I wish I had a better grounding in economics, I guess specifically macroeconomics? Is there a well-known, digestible textbook?

"The Mind and the Market: Capitalism in Western Thought" by Jerry Z. Muller is one of my favorites for history. "The Growth of Economic Thought" by Henry Spiegel is also good.

"Money Mischief" by Milton Friedman is a good short one monetary policy.

"Fault Lines" is a solid book by Raghuram Rajan.

Those will get your more interested than reading raw economic textbooks, imo.

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#79

Post by jonwachob91 » Fri, Jun 08, 2018, 4:22 PM UTC

salviasloth wrote: post #72

maxxxxx wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

" 2020: policies put in place under this administration will come home to roost during the next administration, which will get the blame." That has often been the case. Bush suffered through Clinton's internet bubble. then Obama suffered through Bush's real estate bubble. Trump now benefits from Obama's policies. We'll see what happens after Trump.

Clintons internet bubble?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble

Re: Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces a ‘Wile E. Coyote’ Moment in 2020

#80

Post by jknoepfler » Fri, Jun 08, 2018, 4:22 PM UTC

komali2 wrote: post #23

ianai wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re probably basing that on data benefiting from a supervisory political institution. If that data exist.

If you're about to argue that there wouldn't be business cycles or depressions if we managed to overthrow capitalism, I don't think people are going to disagree with you lol

The cyclical nature of economic health has less to do with a particular form of human economy and more to do with how self regulating complex systems behave.

Most open system that tend towards homeostasis will exhibit boom-bust feedback loops (ecosystems, metabolism, gene expression, antibiotic resistance, human economies, etc.).

I'm not sure it's either possible or desirable to fight that at a fundamental level, although I do think politically it's a very good reason to provide a strong financial safety net.

I'm not sure what you mean by capitalism, but human economies are fundamentally self regulating homeostatic systems. You can engineer around that to make them more human friendly, or just, or dampen the swings, but you can't fight their fundamental nature.