NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash • Hacker News Board

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#231

Post by mikestew » Thu, Jun 07, 2018, 8:28 PM UTC

Analemma_ wrote: post #91

jungturk wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure about Elon, but I suspect (hope?) most of us Tesla drivers have familiarized themselves with the limitations of the system. Its got a couple scenarios in my experience where it shines - chiefly long drives on clean clear interstates and stop-and-go traffic - but its got suicidal tendencies in others. Its not unlike being driven by a tipsy friend or a teenager - there are enough indications that it can't be t…

To be blunt, I'm kind of stunned that you are defending a system that you yourself describe as "like being driven by a tipsy friend". What?! Sure, I could sit in the front passenger seat while being driven by my tipsy friend and grab the wheel from him if he was about to steer into a wall, but that is clearly much less safe than just driving myself. And I definitely wouldn't pay for the privilege nor endorse it as a…

This is what Elon's personality cult, and the psychological need to defend a large purchase, does to people.

Parent clearly outlines the limitations, as well as where AP works well, and you tear into them with "fanboi" trolls? Given that you know nothing more of the parent's psychological state than a name on a screen, you might try dialing it back a bit.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#232

Post by hexane360 » Thu, Jun 07, 2018, 8:31 PM UTC

crote wrote: post #148

panopticon wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Out of curiosity, are you not in the U.S.? These types of lane dividers are incredibly common throughout the country. Note that I'm not defending the safety of them; I'm just surprised to see someone call them out as a hazard as they're such a common sight.

Dutch citizen here, I have never seen something like this. To compare, here's a similar situation in The Netherlands: https://www.google.nl/maps/@52.0928662,5.1734685,3a,75y,281.... Points of interest: - big solid white arrow, line-fade is nearly impossible - white-green sign indicating that the road is splitting - big shoulder in the continuation of the division - loads of grass instead of immediately using a metal…

This is pretty apples-to-oranges. You see things like this in a lot of less dense U.S. areas as well. But in the crash example, it's right in the middle of an interchange, with the lane needing to form and rise quickly. Additionally, the gently rising metal barriers aren't safe in many situations because of their ability to launch cars. That's why they've been replaced by crash attenuators and sand/water barrels. Unfortunately the crash attenuator wasn't replaced after a recent (Here's an accurate U.S. analogue to your example: https://www.google.com/maps/@41.0286482,-102.1517159,3a,75y,...

Meanwhile, here's a Dutch example: https://www.google.com/maps/@51.9305956,4.4371182,3a,75y,66....

Turns out sometimes you need crash attenuators because space isn't infinite. Also, there's no grass in sight here.

Here's another example: https://www.google.com/maps/@51.9239112,4.4203482,3a,67.8y,2...

No sloping barriers, because they're not always safer.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#233

Post by kevin_thibedeau » Thu, Jun 07, 2018, 8:32 PM UTC

slededit wrote: post #222

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Excessively long, unstriped gores are not at all common in the Eastern US. This is bad engineering and poor maintenance.

If anything the US tends towards far too little merge space than excessive. Almost every city has a blind yield entering the freeway somewhere.

This is a problem with old highways that were upgraded to substandard interstates. That isn't the case here with plenty of room to build a safer design.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#234

Post by vm » Thu, Jun 07, 2018, 8:33 PM UTC

alasdair_ wrote: post #187

vm wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you were aware of what was happening. Smartphones are distracting.

Is there any proof that the guy who died was using a smartphone at the time of the crash?

oops didn't mean to imply that for the driver. meant it to as a meta-comment.

my point was that the driver probably didn't know the crash was about to happen. broader investigation into "why the crash happened" is more fruitful than "what the driver could have done differently once the crash happened"

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#235

Post by greedo » Thu, Jun 07, 2018, 8:34 PM UTC

WrtCdEvrydy wrote: post #228

greedo wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The military does it with SAR (synthetic aperture radar). Is something like that feasible for self-driving cars?

Consider price point implications.

Well, if SDVs take off as advocates espouse, the volume (plus Moore's Law) will make costs drop.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#236

Post by Balgair » Thu, Jun 07, 2018, 8:42 PM UTC

jschwartzi wrote: post #6

MBCook wrote: post #3

“[Driver’s] hands were not detected on the steering wheel for the final six seconds prior to the crash. Tesla has said that Huang received warnings to put his hands on the wheel, but according to the NTSB, these warnings came more than 15 minutes before the crash.” This kind of stuff is why I’ve lost all faith in Tesla’s public statements. What they said here was, for all intents and purposes, a flat out lie. Clearly…

If I were rapidly approaching a barrier at full speed on a highway, I might put my hands up and guard my face before the crash.

Example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvckBJP8QPU

I mean, auto-pilot, as promised, would be a god-send for such a poor driver (or anyone with even mild motor impairments). That it preformed soooooo poorly and that Tesla has responded soooo shadily, should put anyone seeking auto-pilot (as a real need, not a gadget) on notice.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#237

Post by ams6110 » Thu, Jun 07, 2018, 8:47 PM UTC

ploxiln wrote: post #218

txcwpalpha wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This isn't an issue specific to Tesla as all automakers are now making cars that are more and more dependent on software. Cars have been dependent on software for a long time (literally decades). This isn't something new. Even combustion engine cars have had software inside of them that controls the operation of the engine, and this software is vigorously tested for safety issues (because most car manufacturers unde…

All cars from all manufacturers are running 10s or 100s of times more code than they did 10 or 20 years ago. https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/39559/does-the-... This really affects the nature of the situation. 20 years ago, cars contained microcontrollers with a tiny bit of code which was thoroughly reviewed and tested by skilled professionals. Today, all cars run so much code, even outside of the enterta…

When the Toyota electronic throttle "unintended acceleration" accidents were in the news, the software was described as a "big bowl of spaghetti" but the NTSB ultimately determined that it was not the cause of the problems. It was drivers using the wrong pedal.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#238

Post by mannykannot » Thu, Jun 07, 2018, 9:02 PM UTC

slg wrote: post #137

txcwpalpha wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this is exactly why all of these articles recently about how "great" it is that Tesla sends out frequent OTA updates are ridiculous. Frequent, unpredictable updates with changelogs that just read "Improvements and bug fixes" is fine when we're talking about a social media app, but is entirely unacceptable when we're talking about the software that controls a 2 ton hunk of metal flying at 70mph with humans inside…

This isn't an issue specific to Tesla as all automakers are now making cars that are more and more dependent on software. So what is the right way to handle these updates? You mentioned a clear flaw with OTA updates, but there are also numerous advantages. For example, the recent Tesla brake software issue was fixed with an OTA update. That immediately made cars safer. Toyota had a similar problem a few years ago and…

The first thing about doing it right is to make sure it has been developed in an appropriate manner for safety-critical systems, which includes, but is by no means limited to, adequate testing.

The second thing is to require the owners to take some action as part of the installation procedure, so that it is hard for them to overlook the fact that it has happened.

The third thing is that changes with safety implications should not be bundled with 'convenience/usability' upgrades (including those that are more of a convenience for the manufacturer than for the user.) To be fair, I am not aware of Tesla doing that, but it is a common enough practice in the software business to justify being mentioned.

And it has to be done securely. Again, I am not aware of Tesla getting this wrong.

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#239

Post by tedsanders » Thu, Jun 07, 2018, 9:02 PM UTC

slg wrote: post #110

rhacker wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get that in 5-10 years we MAY have SDVs that are superior than human drivers. But I think a lot of people have a mental model of SDVs _right now_ being superior to human drivers. I can't remember the crash stats, but I think the only way to know for sure is to calculate the number of miles a single human generally drives on average before they are involved in a collision or crash, etc... Now I don't have the number…

We don't have exact numbers for Tesla but there are 2 confirmed casualties in what is conservatively over a billion Autopilot miles. The average casualty rate for human drivers is something around 1.25 death per 100 million miles. Those numbers are not directly comparable given that Autopilot is not something that is used during 100% of all driving miles and Tesla drivers are not average car drivers. However, there i…

Can you point me to a source for the billion Autopilot miles? This is something I've been trying to track down without any luck so far.

The best source I've been able to find so far is a tweet by Elon Musk in 2016 saying "Cumulative Tesla Autopilot miles now at 222 million".

[1]https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/784487348562198529?ref_s...

Re: NTSB: Autopilot steered Tesla car toward traffic barrier before deadly crash

#240

Post by dogma1138 » Thu, Jun 07, 2018, 9:04 PM UTC

Animats wrote: post #42

NTSB: • At 8 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla was following a lead vehicle and was traveling about 65 mph. • At 7 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla began a left steering movement while following a lead vehicle. • At 4 seconds prior to the crash, the Tesla was no longer following a lead vehicle. • At 3 seconds prior to the crash and up to the time of impact with the crash attenuator, the Tesla’s speed increas…

MobileEye (EyeQ3 which is in AP1) does detection on chip including things like road sign recognition the “software” part is near non existent for them it’s more of a configuration than some sort of a software ANN model like what Tesla is using with AP2 and the NVIDIA Drive PX.