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Deep in the Pentagon, a secret AI program to find hidden nuclear missiles

reuters.com

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Re: Deep in the Pentagon, a secret AI program to find hidden nuclear missiles

#31

Post by jacquesm »

forapurpose wrote: post #12

> The Pentagon is in a race against China and Russia to infuse more AI into its war machine ... Much of the focus is on the U.S., China, and Russia, but I wonder who else is doing it? Several years ago, a leading thinker on the application of modern IT to the military noted that it could represent an historic change: Throughout history, military power depended mostly on the quantity of two resources, wealth and popul…

Wait until the military figures out that AI is close enough over the horizon that a Manhattan style project will most likely be able to achieve a self-improving AI. There will be untold funds dumped into it to head off the 'enemy' at the pass because whoever gets it first might be able to stop others from ever achieving parity (or so it will no doubt be reasoned). For all our benefits I hope this is a lot harder than some people think it is.

Re: Deep in the Pentagon, a secret AI program to find hidden nuclear missiles

#32

Post by vonmoltke »

SCHiM wrote: post #17
forapurpose wrote: post #12

> The Pentagon is in a race against China and Russia to infuse more AI into its war machine ... Much of the focus is on the U.S., China, and Russia, but I wonder who else is doing it? Several years ago, a leading thinker on the application of modern IT to the military noted that it could represent an historic change: Throughout history, military power depended mostly on the quantity of two resources, wealth and popul…

I think this is a pretty insightful an accurate point. I'd like to add the following: 'Secret' software is very hard to keep secret: once your enemy has a semi-intact drone/AI then they'll have upgraded their own fleet within months (if yours was indeed superior). I agree that it seems possible that a country with less wealth might outperform a country or group with more wealth. However, it's likely that the wealthie…

> 'Secret' software is very hard to keep secret: once your enemy has a semi-intact drone/AI then they'll have upgraded their own fleet within months (if yours was indeed superior).

All new systems have anti-tamper mechanisms designed in from the start specifically to minimize the chances of this happening (assuming they work as intended).

Re: Deep in the Pentagon, a secret AI program to find hidden nuclear missiles

#33

Post by newnewpdro »

forapurpose wrote: post #12

> The Pentagon is in a race against China and Russia to infuse more AI into its war machine ... Much of the focus is on the U.S., China, and Russia, but I wonder who else is doing it? Several years ago, a leading thinker on the application of modern IT to the military noted that it could represent an historic change: Throughout history, military power depended mostly on the quantity of two resources, wealth and popul…

Isn't this basically the thesis of the singularity [1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

Re: Deep in the Pentagon, a secret AI program to find hidden nuclear missiles

#34

Post by mieseratte »

otoburb wrote: post #29
forapurpose wrote: post #12

> The Pentagon is in a race against China and Russia to infuse more AI into its war machine ... Much of the focus is on the U.S., China, and Russia, but I wonder who else is doing it? Several years ago, a leading thinker on the application of modern IT to the military noted that it could represent an historic change: Throughout history, military power depended mostly on the quantity of two resources, wealth and popul…

>> Throughout history, military power depended mostly on the quantity of two resources, wealth and population. I thought that military power depended primarily on the quantity of population and materiél . The latter is driven primarily by wealth, but also relies on building, operating and maintaining a manufacturing and industrial base. Smarter software will help equalize and hopefully reduce coordination costs (i.e.…

> but doesn't really help with population nor materiél.

To add, AI can help reduce staffing, failures, costs, etc. What it can't do is magically project force. This requires boots on the ground or a weapons system capable of reaching out and touching someone. This requires materiél, and for the initial build-up flesh-and-bone soldiers.

However, there is a possible exception in the form of cyber warfare. If AI can sufficiently disrupt digital infrastructure it could hypothetically bring another power to its knees. Still, if that power can bounce back from the initial setback that AI would again become a less direct asset.

Re: Deep in the Pentagon, a secret AI program to find hidden nuclear missiles

#35

Post by maxerickson »

otoburb wrote: post #29
forapurpose wrote: post #12

> The Pentagon is in a race against China and Russia to infuse more AI into its war machine ... Much of the focus is on the U.S., China, and Russia, but I wonder who else is doing it? Several years ago, a leading thinker on the application of modern IT to the military noted that it could represent an historic change: Throughout history, military power depended mostly on the quantity of two resources, wealth and popul…

>> Throughout history, military power depended mostly on the quantity of two resources, wealth and population. I thought that military power depended primarily on the quantity of population and materiél . The latter is driven primarily by wealth, but also relies on building, operating and maintaining a manufacturing and industrial base. Smarter software will help equalize and hopefully reduce coordination costs (i.e.…

Mine automation is a big deal.

Re: Deep in the Pentagon, a secret AI program to find hidden nuclear missiles

#36

Post by paganel »

forapurpose wrote: post #12

> The Pentagon is in a race against China and Russia to infuse more AI into its war machine ... Much of the focus is on the U.S., China, and Russia, but I wonder who else is doing it? Several years ago, a leading thinker on the application of modern IT to the military noted that it could represent an historic change: Throughout history, military power depended mostly on the quantity of two resources, wealth and popul…

Definitely not Saudi Arabia. A close friend of mine worked there as a engineering contractor for a big European aero-defense company and he said to me that the “engineering capabilities” (so to speak) of his Saudi colleagues were definitely sub-par. One of the reasons he gave me for this is that the Saudi electrical engineering students were still taught the Coran in university instead of the teachers devoting that time to useful EE knowledge. Maybe the new ruler will change things, but we’ll have to wait at least a couple of decades for the changes’ effects to become really visible.

My bet is on Israel, though.

Re: Deep in the Pentagon, a secret AI program to find hidden nuclear missiles

#37

Post by module0000 »

rm_-rf_slash wrote: post #18
forapurpose wrote: post #12

> The Pentagon is in a race against China and Russia to infuse more AI into its war machine ... Much of the focus is on the U.S., China, and Russia, but I wonder who else is doing it? Several years ago, a leading thinker on the application of modern IT to the military noted that it could represent an historic change: Throughout history, military power depended mostly on the quantity of two resources, wealth and popul…

I disagree with both assertions. Unless any major breakthroughs in AI come along, you need a lot of people to create light, sweet crude data. China has multiples of the U.S. population, and is an expansive surveillance state gathering up every bit the internet has to offer, in contrast to the increasingly privacy-sensitive West. Given current trends in deep learning, those two factors alone give China an enormous adv…

I don't think any amount of AI can predict light sweet crude over 60s within 5 ticks of accuracy either.

Re: Deep in the Pentagon, a secret AI program to find hidden nuclear missiles

#38

Post by pm90 »

mieseratte wrote: post #34
otoburb wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Throughout history, military power depended mostly on the quantity of two resources, wealth and population. I thought that military power depended primarily on the quantity of population and materiél . The latter is driven primarily by wealth, but also relies on building, operating and maintaining a manufacturing and industrial base. Smarter software will help equalize and hopefully reduce coordination costs (i.e.…

> but doesn't really help with population nor materiél. To add, AI can help reduce staffing, failures, costs, etc. What it can't do is magically project force. This requires boots on the ground or a weapons system capable of reaching out and touching someone. This requires materiél, and for the initial build-up flesh-and-bone soldiers. However, there is a possible exception in the form of cyber warfare. If AI can suf…

Correct. And Cyber-based attacks are much less visible and easier to hide than overt attacks e.g. a cruise missile. But as things get more automated, the attack surface and concomitant damage will only increase.

This could have very real military effects. Suppose your supply lines/defense contractors are targeted by foreign digital attackers. Even if your Military itself uses secure communications and infrastructure, if their dependents are disrupted, it will directly impact their effectiveness.

Re: Deep in the Pentagon, a secret AI program to find hidden nuclear missiles

#39

Post by pm90 »

rhombocombus wrote: post #16
rhacker wrote: post #15

> If the research is successful, such computer systems would be able to think for themselves At what point will journalists stop writing this. We may very well have general AI at some point in the future, but I really doubt it's going to be in our lifetimes.

It makes me bristle every time I read it. Advanced statistical computing != thinking! People love to conflate number crunching with intuition and all of the other things that are impossible for computers to do, so I expect it to continue.

Doesn't help that a lot of Tech companies actively promote that AI can deliver a lot more than it can (e.g. IBM, Tesla)

Re: Deep in the Pentagon, a secret AI program to find hidden nuclear missiles

#40

Post by throwaway2048 »

vonmoltke wrote: post #32
SCHiM wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is a pretty insightful an accurate point. I'd like to add the following: 'Secret' software is very hard to keep secret: once your enemy has a semi-intact drone/AI then they'll have upgraded their own fleet within months (if yours was indeed superior). I agree that it seems possible that a country with less wealth might outperform a country or group with more wealth. However, it's likely that the wealthie…

> 'Secret' software is very hard to keep secret: once your enemy has a semi-intact drone/AI then they'll have upgraded their own fleet within months (if yours was indeed superior). All new systems have anti-tamper mechanisms designed in from the start specifically to minimize the chances of this happening (assuming they work as intended).

judging by our utter inability to secure software and hardware stacks consistently, i wouldnt hold out much hope for this approach.
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