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How to get rich without getting lucky

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Re: How to get rich without getting lucky

#501

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No you need to work 15-20 years, depending on tax rates. Unless you meant 130k after tax (which is doable today for many engineers).

You're missing the part where you invest the money as you save it.

Ah, so I was. Fair enough.

Re: How to get rich without getting lucky

#502
post #463

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Long term investment is speculation if it's predicated on an economic system that requires infinitely increasing growth on a completely finite planet with diminishing resources and no clear guarantee that we can fix any overshoot by going interplanetary in a cost-efficient way, or that technology will always magically step in to create enough new efficiencies to further exploit the resources that are present.

I’m not sure how to formulate a response to this. It’s so utterly misplaced. This is like saying that investment isn’t possible because eventually entropy will consume the universe. Yes, in some sense this is true, but in a much more practical sense you should still be planning for your retirement. Even if you believe that in your lifetime the human race will collapse under the strain we’re creating on the planet, in…

I have a little retirement fund, and I also think that if I focused too much on it, I would neglect enjoying our present level of civilization while it lasts. You're the one arguing to absurdity (heat death of the universe), because it really does matter if for all intents and purposes one will likely not get to enjoy retirement investments due to social collapse. It's not a far away possibility, but very likely to begin within my lifetime. You see, it doesn't take depleting everything on the planet, but just enough so that the growth engine based on debt stalls. Inevitable conflicts will follow. Climate change is already causing considerable financial damage and instability, and that is only going to grow more pronounced. On the current emissions route, most of the land closer to the equator than Canada or New Zealand may be barely inhabitable by 2080 (At around +3 or +4 C). There's already trillions of dollars in property value at risk just from flooding that's basically certain in places like Miami, let alone whole latitudes. Some tangible investments will still be valuable, but the idea that the market will keep churning out monetary growth indefinitely is ludicrous. My investment hedge is only for very unlikely scenarios, such as plentiful fusion energy, or exponentially cheaper carbon capture being developed in time to prevent the global financial shock that will happen when the market realizes that whole latitudes of property value are simply disappearing in several decades, or that trillions will need to be spent to mitigate the natural disasters that are coming. It's not a one-day Rapture to expect, but decades of decline that await.

Re: How to get rich without getting lucky

#503

I really doubt you can get rich by not being lucky. I was like Naval and thought many of my achievements were due to sheer hard work. And then I read this article about luck: http://nautil.us/blog/-the-key-to-good-luck-is-an-open-mind And I got the book mentioned in the article - The Luck Factor by Richard Wiseman. One of the exercises in the book is to think over how things have unfolded in your life - what would ha…

We have all these ideals about hard work but in reality the economy is largely a casino. With crippling student debt most young people have been hamstrung from the gate. Milleneals don't generate wealth like boomers because most milleneals were effectively born into indentured servitude with the exploitation over education. Sure you could try to go without a degree in 2017 but good luck getting your foot in the door…

If you can’t find work, create your own. Worked for me and I’ve been at it happily for a few years now. Best decision ever made.

Re: How to get rich without getting lucky

#504

I really doubt you can get rich by not being lucky. I was like Naval and thought many of my achievements were due to sheer hard work. And then I read this article about luck: http://nautil.us/blog/-the-key-to-good-luck-is-an-open-mind And I got the book mentioned in the article - The Luck Factor by Richard Wiseman. One of the exercises in the book is to think over how things have unfolded in your life - what would ha…

Luck Factor link (its only 5 pages and interesting): http://richardwiseman.com/resources/The_Luck_Factor.pdf

Re: How to get rich without getting lucky

#505
post #463

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure how to formulate a response to this. It’s so utterly misplaced. This is like saying that investment isn’t possible because eventually entropy will consume the universe. Yes, in some sense this is true, but in a much more practical sense you should still be planning for your retirement. Even if you believe that in your lifetime the human race will collapse under the strain we’re creating on the planet, in…

I have a little retirement fund, and I also think that if I focused too much on it, I would neglect enjoying our present level of civilization while it lasts. You're the one arguing to absurdity (heat death of the universe), because it really does matter if for all intents and purposes one will likely not get to enjoy retirement investments due to social collapse. It's not a far away possibility, but very likely to b…

From what i can tell, the difference between speculating and investing is merely long term vs short term investing.

according to that definition, your parent poster would be correct, even if (or maybe once) your fears come true.

Re: How to get rich without getting lucky

#506
post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Counterpoint: Your chances of dying before "making it big" and retiring are somewhere in the 1-in-10 range. Investing works mostly because of the current trend of artificially propping up the stock market. Any failure in your investment strategy leave you in the same boat as the current boomer retirees who are trying to get back in the workforce. Not to mention, your life is going to be pretty miserable if you're wor…

Saving 60% of your income is an achievable goal. Start at say 25 and that's going to give you a much better than 1:10 chance of being able to very comfortably retire someplace cheap. If nothing else 1 year of work = 1.5 years not working, but at 4% return (over inflation) and 15% investment taxes you can retire in 15 years.

I'm currently working on this. In 2016, I saved 60% ($36,000). In 2017, I saved 65% ($42,250). This year, I am working on saving 70%-75% ($46,200). I'm 23 and planning on transitioning from devops to a software engineer role by 25-26 (working on the skills I lack!). I never need anything and am extremely content! I think I might be able to get to 80% but that will cut into some things, so still working on 75% for this year.

Re: How to get rich without getting lucky

#507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Wouldn't you agree that the harder someone works, the greater their chance of becoming rich? No. >You seem to argue that the OP has absolutely no claim to the wealth that he has worked for and his preferable situation is due entirely to luck. Well let's start from the base. Do you think someone has a claim to wealth that they earned entirely due to luck? >This is of course preposterous and easily disproved, so I'm c…

Well now I'm curious about what your views on free will are. > Do you think someone has a claim to wealth that they earned entirely due to luck? First off, this is a difficult question to answer because it seems yours and my definitions of "luck" are not the same. Or perhaps they are the same but we view the surrounding context and their individual manifestations as dissimilar. I would say it depends on the situation…

But I think the whole point is that we don’t live in a vacuum.

The farmers for example. Since the first farmer has healthy crops, insects would probably be more attracted to his lands, therefore a higher chance of his crops being tainted or destroyed. He could put all that work in and end up no better off than the second farmer due to circumstances entirely out of his control.

Not to say he shouldn’t put that work in, but there is always an element of luck in anything that “works out” for you or me.

Re: How to get rich without getting lucky

#508
post #114
post #8

I know very few people that got rich without getting lucky and none of them would have been rich if they had followed this list. The majority of them simply went into finance, consulting or real estate at a young age and invested their income smartly (retrospectively!). After the first million rolls in if you're young enough compound returns will take care of the rest if you can postpone altering your life-style.

Another strategy I’ve seen work very well: Find out where high-status or wealthy people congregate for recreation. Pay close attention to their culture, mannerisms, language, and dress. Practice emulating them until sufficiently skilled. Frequent the same places as them until some begin to recognize you and believe you are one of them. Then, make them actually enjoy your company. In modern times, this would probably…

I'm 23 so please excuse my ignorance. I've been struggling with the marriage benefits personally. There are the extra single taxes, rates for insurance, etc.

However, in the US, with the amount of divorce (alimony / child support) it seems less than optimal to view marriage as an asset.

Or am I totally off the mark?

Re: How to get rich without getting lucky

#509
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have advices for young people in long term investments ?

Don't listen to risk-averse engineers. You are young, invest in high risk things you believe in. Make it an active investment if you can. Recognize who is giving you boring advice(index funds), look at the risk levels in their life, and then disregard them if they don't take chances on anything. At a young age your risky investment % should be at it's highest. The exact amount will depend on your appetite.

I will have personally invested $110k (by 2019) at age 23. All of my retirement accounts (401k, T-IRA, HSA) are invested in ETFs (0.06 expense ratio average) and a few actively managed funds with 20+% returned from 3YR-5YR view.

The rest is invested in individual stocks and high-risk mutual funds. Once I am 30, I will start pumping more into ETFs (stocks and add in bonds).

I absolutely love the advice. Everyone is different but I try to be as risky as possible with at least 40-50% of my portfolio until I am 30.

Two possible changes to my strategy will be if I build a good software product/business that makes more income. I will divert the money put into risky investing and dump it into my products/business. The other change is buying a home ($100-250,000). I want to raise backyard chickens!

Re: How to get rich without getting lucky

#510

This ignores most poor people who are too busy trying to feed their family in the short term and our society's inability to properly give them a safety net for them to learn new skills/ get ahead in life.

Society is a privelege and not a right, without "our society" and it's shortcomings you're back to hunting for food and succeeding, or perishing

Cannot agree more.
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