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The Marshmallow Test: What Does It Really Measure?

theatlantic.com

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Re: The Marshmallow Test: What Does It Really Measure?

#91

I was always skeptical of the marshmallow test. It let too many questions open on why children eat the marshmallows. Was it because they hadn't eaten before and came to school with low blood sugar, knew that waiting fifteen minutes for two sweets the price of a penny is idiotic or that they felt uncomfortable in the room and wanted to leave as early as possible?

So you were able to think of a couple confounding factors off the top of your head, but you dismiss the idea that the researchers had considered those factors and controlled for it? Despite the fact that their full time job it is to think about things like that, and their careers are on the line if they embarrass themselves by disregarding something as obvious and trivial like that? Did you even read the original pap…

This very article is about how the original paper did not control enough for confounding factors:

> Watts and his colleagues were skeptical of that finding. The original results were based on studies that included fewer than 90 children—all enrolled in a preschool on Stanford’s campus. In restaging the experiment, Watts and his colleagues thus adjusted the experimental design in important ways: The researchers used a sample that was much larger—more than 900 children—and also more representative of the general population in terms of race, ethnicity, and parents’ education. The researchers also, when analyzing their test’s results, controlled for certain factors—such as the income of a child’s household—that might explain children’s ability to delay gratification and their long-term success.

Re: The Marshmallow Test: What Does It Really Measure?

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you were able to think of a couple confounding factors off the top of your head, but you dismiss the idea that the researchers had considered those factors and controlled for it? Despite the fact that their full time job it is to think about things like that, and their careers are on the line if they embarrass themselves by disregarding something as obvious and trivial like that? Did you even read the original pap…

This very article is about how the original paper did not control enough for confounding factors: > Watts and his colleagues were skeptical of that finding. The original results were based on studies that included fewer than 90 children—all enrolled in a preschool on Stanford’s campus. In restaging the experiment, Watts and his colleagues thus adjusted the experimental design in important ways: The researchers used a…

The quote you copy-pasted from the article has nothing to do with my comment.

Re: The Marshmallow Test: What Does It Really Measure?

#93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please refer to the hn guidelines (linked in the footer) > Please don't insinuate that someone hasn't read an article. "Did you even read the article? It mentions that" can be shortened to "The article mentions that." Regarding the content of your post: I don't see how that quote relates at all to the parent. They were talking about how "desire/ability to pass a test" is an interesting variable in these scenarios – s…

GPs explanation is nothing more than a hypothesis as to why the Marshmallow test would be predictive of later performance: > The post argues that [a "generalised ability/desire to take and pass tests"] is an underrecognised character trait which can predict success in today's Western test-oriented world. In other words: it follows the assumption that being good at the Marshmallow test represents inherent character tr…

> The new paper shows that this is not the case. The Marshmallow test still is predictive, but that seems to be because being able to take it correlates with having affluent backgrounds, not with it representing an inherent character trait that predicts anything.

And Smaug123 referenced that by saying

> Assuming the trait is either heritable or culturally imbued (and intuitively it seems very likely that at least one of those is true), it makes sense that rich parents are more likely to have children who are either natively or culturally high in The Desire To Pass Tests

You might have misinterpreted the article in question, since you write:

> it follows the assumption that being good at the Marshmallow test represents inherent character traits that are predictive of later performance. Except that the whole point of the article is debunking this notion [...]

The article does no such thing. It only shows that controlled for socioeconomic situation, there is no correlation. That does not mean that there is no predictive power.

Re: The Marshmallow Test: What Does It Really Measure?

#94

I was always skeptical of the marshmallow test. It let too many questions open on why children eat the marshmallows. Was it because they hadn't eaten before and came to school with low blood sugar, knew that waiting fifteen minutes for two sweets the price of a penny is idiotic or that they felt uncomfortable in the room and wanted to leave as early as possible?

So you were able to think of a couple confounding factors off the top of your head, but you dismiss the idea that the researchers had considered those factors and controlled for it? Despite the fact that their full time job it is to think about things like that, and their careers are on the line if they embarrass themselves by disregarding something as obvious and trivial like that? Did you even read the original pap…

What you say is essentially an appeal to authority. The questions of wombat92 are legitimate and it is the job of the journalist to answer them in the article. "They are professional, they know their job" is not a valid scientific argument.

Re: The Marshmallow Test: What Does It Really Measure?

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Often the poor are fat because healthy food is more expensive. So yes, scarcity of healthy food is linked to poverty.

I'm not sure that healthy food is more expensive when you only look at the items, because vegetables are not (some fruits are, but veggies are far more important). With even limited cooking skills you can produce pretty cheap and yet very good meals. However, I still think your point is valid, because it's not just the food items themselves. You need time to prepare them, plus a stressful life puts psychological pres…

Veggies are very expensive per calorie. A cucumber is ~16 calories and costs ~50 cents each. A 2,000 calorie diet at that rate would be 60$ per day.

Granted nobody is eating like that but 1.50$ for 3 servings of vegetables per day is 550$ per year which really is significant for them.

PS: This is assuming they even have access to low cost veggies.

Re: The Marshmallow Test: What Does It Really Measure?

#96
post #7

I see so many forum discussions where posters criticise the poor for their 'weak' decisions and effectively blame the poor for their own plight. Why don't they just work harder and earn the money to pay for their healthcare and education? they say. It is easy to withhold funding from deprived areas if you convince yourself that it is their own fault. These results should be on the front pages of newspapers and on TV…

> The idea that children raised with few resources need help to plan for the long term seems to be rather lost on many politicians these days. The truth is unacceptable to our modern society. We still live in a harsh world where we have to sacrifice some people for the good of the community. Many critical traits like intelligence are largely inherited. Once we focus on the nurture side the three key influencers are g…

This comment is a list of assertions without any base and ties netween each other.

Why would we have to sacrifice anybody?

How do you define intelligence and how is it biologically inherited?

Why would those be the three influencers and not stuff like school, neighbours, family as a whole and public support?

Why would feminism have killed fathers at home?

Who said gangs are more accepted or that there is even more violence?

Can you prove how immigration limits entry jobs? Last time I checked entry level jobs are actually missing candidates in many developped countries because the local youth doesn't take them (typically construction industry is under staffed in whole western europe and needs immigrants to work).

Re: The Marshmallow Test: What Does It Really Measure?

#98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is poverty really linked to food scarcity in western countries anymore ? The statistics show that overall, the poor are fatter than the rich.

Because they have access to only poor quality foods. There may not be calorie scarcity but there is nutrition scarcity. And yes, for some there's also "food insecurity" which is not knowing where your next meal is coming from or having to choose between food and other necessities (shelter, warm winter clothing, medical care, transportation, etc.)

This talks around food scarcity without actually being food scarcity. First, you have to show that poor quality foods actually reduce willpower and contribute to further poverty. People used to fight wars on poor diets. I'm sure there's lots of military planners in the world that would love it if they could feed their army the way America feeds its poor.

Food insecurity isn't food scarcity either, it's just more income insecurity.

The distinctions matter because the policy you craft to fix actual food scarcity is different and far easier than the policy you craft to address income insecurity.

Edit: I'm going to go against my usual playbook and discuss my downvoters. You fix social problems with policy. Policy has to affect everyone. That's what makes it policy. If you tailor bad policy that doesn't work, because it doesn't address the root cause, then you've made the world worse and not better. Giving poor people cheap ubiquitous Whole Foods Markets isn't going to solve their problems.

Re: The Marshmallow Test: What Does It Really Measure?

#99

>For them, daily life holds fewer guarantees: There might be food in the pantry today, but there might not be tomorrow, so there is a risk that comes with waiting. If food is scarce, wouldn't food hoarding be the rational action?

That happens too, but sitting in a room looking at a marshmallow that's not yours as part of some weird test by adults that aren't trustworthy is NOT the same as having the marshmallow.

You might reimagine the test as the 'adults lie and don't keep their promises' test. There's been times I'd absolutely snatch the marshmallow. Then it's munch mine, good luck taking THAT away, adult ;)

Re: The Marshmallow Test: What Does It Really Measure?

#100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is poverty really linked to food scarcity in western countries anymore ? The statistics show that overall, the poor are fatter than the rich.

Because they have access to only poor quality foods. There may not be calorie scarcity but there is nutrition scarcity. And yes, for some there's also "food insecurity" which is not knowing where your next meal is coming from or having to choose between food and other necessities (shelter, warm winter clothing, medical care, transportation, etc.)

This just isn't true. It's so obviously not true it's really very amazing that people repeat it. Go to a Dollar General in a poor area sometime. They have lots of potato chips and assorted crap. Yep. They also have canned beans, fruit, refrigerated sausage, cheese, chicken, etc. None of this is unaffordable.

That's Dollar General. Most places have access to a Walmart which is as good nutritionally as any grocery store that ever existed.

If people buy junk food it's because they enjoy it. Christ, even your typical gas station sells salad these days.

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