The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years • Hacker News Board

Re: The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years

#121

Post by u90g4u8904 » Fri, Jun 01, 2018, 6:11 PM UTC

sametmax wrote: post #119

u90g4u8904 wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

huh? What part of my comment are you replying to? Edit: I see we're talking past eachother. I was responding to your claim that "Also a lot of people don't want children." I'm pointing out that, while that's true, the real problem is people who report wanting children but not having any. I wasn't responding to your comment about male birth control. Although if you want my opinion, I think it will be good for men to s…

> but the tremendous gap between the number of children women said they wanted to have and the number that they will probably have If you interrogate only women, it's completely off.

https://www.thecut.com/2015/03/when-men-want-kids-and-women-...

"In a nationally representative survey of single, childless people in 2011, more men than women said they wanted kids."

"A different poll from 2013 echoed those findings, with more than 80 percent of men saying they’d always wanted to be a father or at least thought they would be someday. Just 70 percent of women felt the same."

Granted, I don't have tons of studies, and some of this data is a few years old (but still after the 2008 recession,) but I think it's reasonable to conclude that the drop in birth rate can not be explained solely by a decline in the number of men or women who want kids. For sure, that is a big part of it. But the fact that couples who want kids are not having them, and that this gap grew after the recession, leads me to think there are structural issues with our economy at play.

Re: The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years

#122

Post by throw_this_one » Fri, Jun 01, 2018, 6:39 PM UTC

RhysU wrote: post #105

throw_this_one wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The growth-based economic model is flawed. Countries should be rewarded economically/politically by some sort of sustainability index where all of their positive/negative externalities are accounted for. We do not need more people on this planet. It will only increase the likelihood of a major catastrophe like famine -> war -> nuclear war, which will then put scientific research back decades if not centuries.

> Countries should be rewarded economically/politically by some sort of sustainability index where all of their positive/negative externalities are accounted for. From which growth-based economies will those rewards be taken? If not that way, then how?

The whole point is a paradigm shift where sustainability is rewarded instead of uncontrolled growth. The reward can probably be political clout, to drive the direction of things moving forward. Essentially that is what we reward uncontrolled growth with currently.

The whole point is that I am assuming there isn't enough incentive on a large scale to deal with environment problem BEFORE they occur. With global warming, once we go past the point of no return, it won't be a quick fix. We will throw the equilibrium out of whack. If we were to pragmatically balance things now/going back a few decades, we could avoid the big swing that will occur.

So basically, the population may fall from 8 billion to 3 billion because of famine/war, etc. Immensely painful things... Or we could just have pragmatic restraint through rewarding sustainability, and it would naturally level out to 5/6 billion or whatever that number is... but without the immense pain of billion fighting/dying.

Re: The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years

#123

Post by sametmax » Fri, Jun 01, 2018, 7:32 PM UTC

u90g4u8904 wrote: post #121

sametmax wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but the tremendous gap between the number of children women said they wanted to have and the number that they will probably have If you interrogate only women, it's completely off.

https://www.thecut.com/2015/03/when-men-want-kids-and-women-... "In a nationally representative survey of single, childless people in 2011, more men than women said they wanted kids." "A different poll from 2013 echoed those findings, with more than 80 percent of men saying they’d always wanted to be a father or at least thought they would be someday. Just 70 percent of women felt the same." Granted, I don't have ton…

Fair reply. Not representative of my surrounding, but it's a bias small sample.

Re: The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years

#124

Post by sametmax » Fri, Jun 01, 2018, 7:33 PM UTC

pavel_lishin wrote: post #107

sametmax wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also a lot of people don't want children. It's a lot of responsabilities and constraints, so you need to feel the desired for it. The new generation grew with aids, feel less influenced by the authority selling the one family lifestyle and use more contraception. Now wait for Vasalgel to take off. When males will have total control of their involvment in pregnancy, you will see the numbers go down even more. And prob…

> Also a lot of people don't want children. It's a lot of responsabilities and constraints, so you need to feel the desired for it. This is true, but are enough people feeling liberated enough to not have kids to have this be a significant part of the lowered birth rate?

Well, health aside, to not have kids, you have to actively avoid it. Or be very ugly.

Re: The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years

#125

Post by throwawaymanbot » Fri, Jun 01, 2018, 8:00 PM UTC

The GOPConservative have engineered a situation whereby its too expensive to have a family. The US currently is a country where employers are allowed to not have to pay for an employees health insurance-- where health insurance companies are allowed to jack up prices for no reason knowing that their buddies in congress will not investigate and noone makes enough money to spend whats left out of their paychecks after paying nearly 60% of their monthly salary on the inflated rents they allow their Party donation REIT buddies set.

Want to know why theres less kids? Check out the price of just birthing one. Socialize the healthcare at least, and well have lots of babies.

Re: The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years

#126

Post by daxorid » Fri, Jun 01, 2018, 9:04 PM UTC

p3llin0r3 wrote: post #117

nunez wrote: post #34

Why would we have kids and suffer when we could not have kids and enjoy life to the fullest? We make just enough to have a really good life without kids or have a really stressful life with them. We don’t even have a house yet (and I mostly don’t want one, but that’s another conversation). I ran the numbers, and I didn’t like the outcome. Everyone that I know that has kids is sleep deprived, unable to do much of anyt…

Don't listen to the breeders. You can choose to have a family when you want. You don't need to share blood with your child in order for it to be a meaningful and fulfilling relationship. I'm from a large extended family that has overwhelmingly chosen to not breed and adopt children into our lives, when we are READY and WANT THEM, instead. I'm proud of the fact that I will never breed. I will probably raise a child at…

> Genetics are over-rated

Intelligence (all g-factors, not just IQ but reaction time, etc) are roughly 40-55% heritable, depending on which study you choose to run with. Similar numbers are found for behavior, political leanings, conscientiousness, etc.

The blank slate hypothesis has been widely discredited. After work, the best contribution the high-IQ, high-conscientiousness people on this site can make to society is propagation of their genetic material.

> You can choose to have a family when you want

Fertility specialists would tend to disagree with your total disregard of reality, here.

Re: The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years

#127

Post by AIX2ESXI » Fri, Jun 01, 2018, 9:46 PM UTC

Regardsyjc wrote: post #101

AIX2ESXI wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for the insight, was not trying to do that, but in review I certainly did. Always trying to aim higher. Can you recommend any good political science or demographic books beside from author William Strauss? My intention is really to understand to understand the chaos around me. Forgive me for coming off steamed, but as I was an orphan as a child and was a ward of the court until I was emancipated at age 18. Sta…

I would recommend learning more about the things you hate. I used to hate modern art. I thought it was only for obnoxious people. Then I decided to take a college course on it and it's my favorite period of art because I learned to understand it. For the same reasons, I decided to take a course on the black power movement. My parents were racist so I was probably racist so I wanted to learn more. I learned about the…

You make some great points. thanks.

Re: The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years

#128

Post by p3llin0r3 » Sat, Jun 02, 2018, 4:19 AM UTC

daxorid wrote: post #126

p3llin0r3 wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't listen to the breeders. You can choose to have a family when you want. You don't need to share blood with your child in order for it to be a meaningful and fulfilling relationship. I'm from a large extended family that has overwhelmingly chosen to not breed and adopt children into our lives, when we are READY and WANT THEM, instead. I'm proud of the fact that I will never breed. I will probably raise a child at…

> Genetics are over-rated Intelligence (all g-factors, not just IQ but reaction time, etc) are roughly 40-55% heritable, depending on which study you choose to run with. Similar numbers are found for behavior, political leanings, conscientiousness, etc. The blank slate hypothesis has been widely discredited. After work, the best contribution the high-IQ, high-conscientiousness people on this site can make to society…

> You can choose to have a family when you want.

> You don't need to share blood with your child in order for it to be a meaningful and fulfilling relationship.

> I'm from a large extended family that has overwhelmingly chosen to not breed and adopt children into our lives, when we are READY and WANT THEM, instead.

>> Fertility specialists would tend to disagree with your total disregard of reality, here.

For someone with such a high inherited IQ you sure do have poor reading comprehension.

Re: The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years

#129

Post by alf-pogz » Sat, Jun 02, 2018, 10:31 AM UTC

phil21 wrote: post #80

alf-pogz wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speak for yourself. I'm petrified by the prospect of lack of growth. It is what our economy is built on, and a larger population could result in better science. There is plenty of land in the United States. Even our cities in the rust belt are underpopulated.

Let those places grow feral again. We don't need to take up the entire damn planet as a species. Or at least the entire "fertile" bits of it. I could not be more diametrically opposed to your position. It's clear to me we have far too many people as it is, and the only way out is through population decline. Anything else is ridiculous line noise to argue about. Once you solve the CO2 climate change problem you have a…

I suppose it's a matter of how much you appreciate human achievement. Detroit could become the realization of a new Metropolis. Hyperloop could be built between Detroit and Cleveland and other cities with much less regulatory constraint. The promise of these mid-western cities excites me much more than the west coast because we do not need to be bogged down by preservation of natural landscapes there. They are the areas that could have delivered millennials from their stagnation if momentum had taken hold.

There is no choice but to grow. People like to travel, conduct scientific research, and face and conquer new technical challenges. You cannot do this without more people and the productivity they provide. Period.

Re: The birthrate in the U.S. is the lowest it’s been in 30 years

#130

Post by Frondo » Sat, Jun 02, 2018, 2:12 PM UTC

Apocryphon wrote: post #54

Frondo wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hey, I'm not a soy boy, I'm a soy man, and I'm up to my eyeballs in cute, fun, financially self-sufficient women. Shame they show so much interest when you're engaged to another cute, fun, actualized lady, eh?? Sorry, to use the jargon you might understand....cute, fun, actualized female .

Careful, or he'll be so triggered he accuses you of virtue-signalling.

That's okay, I'm in my safe space.