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Executives Play Down the Possibility of Raises

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Re: Executives Play Down the Possibility of Raises

#81
post #50
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, not at all. There is no evidence that tax cuts lead to higher wages or economic growth. It's been studied and debunked to death but it never dies.

There is evidence, its just that the evidence is weak and mere co-relations. All of macro economic theory is like that - just models explaining aggregate human behavior. Anything people propose can probably be shown to work in some model or another. On the flip side, higher taxes also don't "lead to" any wage increases or economic growth. Given the massive waste and inefficiency in most government programs, very litt…

This is ideology and attempted political point-scoring, not evidence.

There aren’t even a preponderance of correlative data that shows a link between tax cuts and economic growth—except where economic growth is defined as a disproportionate increase in wealth concentration in ever smaller percentages of the population. The opposite has been shown—and quite conclusively—with decades of data (that tax cuts do not spur economic growth).

Moreover, seeing as how you’re dragging out the old government waste trope—its notable that you conveniently neglect to directly indict those on the receiving end of this “waste”. It cannot be solely the government’s fault that private corporate contractors happily pocket this waste. If waste is something you find especially onerous, shouldn’t we start by pointing the finger at the private companies who submit “wasteful” bids/invoices? If the government is paying too much and wasting public funds on contractors, doesn’t the fault lie with those submitting the bids/invoices? If there is nothing at all wrong with their bids, and we want to say it’s acceptable to bid any amount so long as the bidding is, say, fairly open to all comers, then how exactly can the government be guilty of “waste”? Seems every time the government is criticized for waste, it’s always a one-sided critique. Meanwhile, attempting to reign in this alleged waste with regulations, bid caps, stronger negotiating power, or some form of (gasp!) price control mechanism for public projects is rather uniformly met with charges of abuse of power, not playing by the rules, crippling free markets, or some other such nonsense. If there is waste, it starts with exorbitant bids/invoices for that $200 screwdriver. Seems to me the government is simply playing by the rules and paying what is demanded. There’d be a shit storm if they didn’t.

Re: Executives Play Down the Possibility of Raises

#82
post #57
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually the point of the tax cut was to harmonize our corporate tax rates with the rest of the world, and take steps to eliminate the domicile arbitrage and general loopholing that creates an enormous amount of deadweight loss in our economy.

No, it wasn't. Corporate tax rates were fine, and absolutely nothing in the bill put an end to any of the other stuff.

'fine' is subjective. What they were definitely not though is harmonized with the rest of the world.

Re: Executives Play Down the Possibility of Raises

#83
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That the distribution of the benefits is done according to supply and demand has most certainly not been debunked either. Wages are decided by the labor market equilibrium, not individually by employers. And economic growth is not a matter of distribution and certainly related to deadweight losses.

Do you have any evidence for these simplistic Econ101 theories? The funny thing is that if an any economist did prove a link between tax cuts and long term economic growth he wouldn't just win a Nobel, they'd knock down the Statue of Liberty and replace it with a statue of him. Alas, the evidence eludes all comers. > And economic growth is not a matter of distribution and certainly related to deadweight losses. Unfor…

> Do you have any evidence for these simplistic Econ101 theories?

Yes, deductive logic. Way better than empirical studies, if that's what you were looking for. You only need the assumption that demand curves in the labor market slope downward to deduce that taxes in that market cause deadweight losses, and the evidence that demand curves nearly always slope downward, not just in the labor market, is every transaction you have ever made and every transaction you have ever heard anyone talk about. There are empirical studies that confirm this, but they are irrelevant because you have access to much better evidence, and you should just dismiss the empirical studies that say otherwise. If controlled experiments showed this wrong, you should assume that the researchers are lying about their results, because that would genuinely be a more likely explanation than demand curves not actually sloping downward.

By the way, simple theories are more likely to be true, not less.

> Economic growth is probably only a matter of distribution.

There are exactly two reasons there can be an increase in economic growth and they are intensive and extensive growth. Either you make more efficient use of inputs or you have more inputs. Deadweight losses mean you make less efficient use of inputs.

In principle, the inefficiency caused by the taxes could be offset by the way they are spent if they were used to correct a market failure, which could increase economic efficiency or even increase the inputs. But market failures do not exist so in practice this does not happen and taxes always harm economic growth.

Re: Executives Play Down the Possibility of Raises

#84
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's some pretty dubious logic, that is not completely backed up by reality. And the idea that the split is governed by the value of labor at the time has also been debunked. Businesses everywhere are complaining of a labor shortage, yet they're not raising wages. I'm sorry, but the simplistic Econ 101 stuff isn't really applicable in the real world.

Wrong again. This isn't "logic", this is well established science. It's like gravity, you can dismiss it all you want, but if you jump out of the window, you'll still end up on the floor. And you clearly didn't understand what price elasticity of demand means.

"This isn't "logic", this is well established science."

No, it very much is not.

"It's like gravity"

Gravity behaves the same way every time you observe it. Economic activity most certainly does not.

"And you clearly didn't understand what price elasticity of demand means."

Because clearly anyone who disagrees with you is only doing so because they don't understand?

Re: Executives Play Down the Possibility of Raises

#85
post #82
post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it wasn't. Corporate tax rates were fine, and absolutely nothing in the bill put an end to any of the other stuff.

'fine' is subjective. What they were definitely not though is harmonized with the rest of the world.

I don't see that as an issue, especially not one that justified adding a trillion dollars to the deficit for barely any benefit to most people.

Re: Executives Play Down the Possibility of Raises

#86
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any verifiable time in history when such a complicated multi-actor system actually did increase wages? Or is this the cold fusion of government policy?

It’s almost as if we are in Groundhog Day. Doomed to keep hopelessly trying trickle-down economics over and over again forever.

absolutely we are, i merely asked the question for some fan to come in and prove and even that got downvoted to death :D

Re: Executives Play Down the Possibility of Raises

#87
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wrong again. This isn't "logic", this is well established science. It's like gravity, you can dismiss it all you want, but if you jump out of the window, you'll still end up on the floor. And you clearly didn't understand what price elasticity of demand means.

"This isn't "logic", this is well established science." No, it very much is not. "It's like gravity" Gravity behaves the same way every time you observe it. Economic activity most certainly does not. "And you clearly didn't understand what price elasticity of demand means." Because clearly anyone who disagrees with you is only doing so because they don't understand?

> No, it very much is not.

Well, Nobel-prize winners and millions of economists around the world disagree with you, but I'm sure that your personal opinion trumps all of that.

> Because clearly anyone who disagrees with you is only doing so because they don't understand?

No, because you mixed "value of labor at the time" and "price elasticity of labor demand". If you had understood what price elasticity of labor demand meant, you wouldn't mix the two.

If cost of labor is X, demand for labor is Y, then "value of labor at the time" is X and "price elasticity of labor demand" is dY/dX.

Re: Executives Play Down the Possibility of Raises

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is basically what every McKinsey Engagement Magager does after 1 year on the job, and the firm is happy with it.

The difference is that McKinsey (and other consulting firms) rely on the network of alumni to secure new projects. So those people aren't (usually) leaving to a competitor, but mostly to a current (or possibly future) client. Same with law firms, auditing firms, etc.

That's really good strategy. Is there another industry where you could apply this method? Hire young people for cheap and then let them move to future customers for high salaries. I guess it may work for somebody like Oracle: Hire young devs and after a few years let move to customers who pay them well as experts who then buy Oracle products.

Re: Executives Play Down the Possibility of Raises

#89
post #85
post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

'fine' is subjective. What they were definitely not though is harmonized with the rest of the world.

I don't see that as an issue, especially not one that justified adding a trillion dollars to the deficit for barely any benefit to most people.

It's an issue because it does two things:

1. Favors certain types of businesses that can more readily arbitrage their domicile (e.g. Apple, Google).

2. Creates an incentive for companies to pay accountants and lawyers a large amount of money to find ways to engage in #1. All of this money is, in economic terms, deadweight loss.

If you look at the effective tax rates companies were paying before this change, they were more or less harmonized with the rest of the world[1]. What was not harmonized was the statutory rate. What this meant in practice is that big companies with the resources to exploit the loophole paid the low rates, and companies without those resources paid the high rates. And the resources that were expended by the companies to accomplish this were 100% unproductive. Harmonizing the statutory rate makes things fair, and eliminates the need to waste money on those types of accountants.

[1] https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52419

Re: Executives Play Down the Possibility of Raises

#90
post #29
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any verifiable time in history when such a complicated multi-actor system actually did increase wages? Or is this the cold fusion of government policy?

No, not at all. There is no evidence that tax cuts lead to higher wages or economic growth. It's been studied and debunked to death but it never dies.

The point isn't to have a tax cut but to reform the particular anti-employment/anti-investment distorted incentives the US corporate tax system had.

At some point the US finances are going to have to be stabilized by increasing taxes or perhaps spending not so much on military white elephants, but a non-progressive tax on spending overseas profits in the US is not the right way to do it.

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