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AI winter is well on its way

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Re: AI winter is well on its way

#371

Post by akvadrako »

isoprophlex wrote: post #361
akvadrako wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI taking over is the biggest threat facing humanity, but I don't think Hawking ever claimed it was imminent; it's likely 1000+ years away. It should be obvious why a superior intelligence is something dangerous.

The day we create a superior intelligence will be the greatest day of humanity. It will be fantastic if there's something beyond humanity. A logical, evolutionary conclusion to us. All our Darwinian ancestors never had the capacity for intellectual fear of their superior successors... Hopefully we as a species can get beyond our fear.

That's at least a logical belief, but it's still a threat, because we don't know how it will behave and we'll be helpless to control it.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#372

Post by jeffreyrogers »

bitL wrote: post #348

I was recently "playing" with some radiology data. I had no chance to identify diagnoses myself with untrained eyes, something that probably takes years for a decent radiologist to master. Just by using DenseNet-BC-100-12 I ended up with 83% ROC AUC after a few hours of training. In 4 out of 12 categories this classifier beat best human performing radiologists. Now the very same model with no other change than adjust…

I don't think the claim is that AI isn't useful. It's that it's oversold. In any case, I don't think you can tell much about how well your classifier is working for something like cancer diagnoses unless you know how many false negatives you have (and how that compares to how many false negatives a radiologist makes).

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#373

Post by jaggednad »

mtgx wrote: post #358
dekhn wrote: post #324

I'm a scientist from a field outside ML who knows that ML can contribute to science. But I'm also really sad to see false claims in papers. For example, a good scientist can read an ML paper, see claims of 99% accuracy, and then probe further to figure out what the claims really mean. I do that a lot, and I find that accuracy inflation and careless mismanagement of data mars most "sexy" ML papers. To me, that's what'…

You hear Facebook all the time saying how it "automatically blocks 99% of the terrorist content " with AI to the public and governments. Nobody thought to ask: "How do you know all of that content is terrorist content? Does anyone check every video afterwards to ensure that all the blocked content was indeed terrorist content?" (assuming they even have an exact definition for it).

Yes, they have a test set. They don’t check every video, but they do check every video in a sample that is of statistically significant size.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#374

Post by hannasanarion »

sgt101 wrote: post #212
Erlich_Bachman wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is so true, I can't understand why people miss this. The games are just games. It's intelligence that is the goal. And comparing Alpha Go Zero against those "other chess programs that existed for 30 years" is exactly missing the point also. Those programs were not constructed with zero-knowledge. They were carefully crafted by human players to achieve the result. Are we also going to count in all the brain proce…

It shows something about the game, but it's clear that humans don't learn in the way that alpha zero does, do i don't think that alpha zero illuminated any aspect of human intelligence.

But humans could learn in the same way that AlphaZero does. We have the same resources and the same capabilities, just running on million-year-old hardware. Humans might not be able to replicate the performance of AlphaZero, but that does not mean it is useless in the study of intelligence.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#375

Post by akvadrako »

Scea91 wrote: post #320
akvadrako wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI taking over is the biggest threat facing humanity, but I don't think Hawking ever claimed it was imminent; it's likely 1000+ years away. It should be obvious why a superior intelligence is something dangerous.

It would be great if people feared climate change the same way they fear AI takeover.

Climate change is not an existential threat - primitive humans survived for 200+ kyrs when temps were 10°C cooler and thrived during warmer temps.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#376

Post by kenjackson »

tim333 wrote: post #109
joe_the_user wrote: post #81

This is a deep, significant post (pardon pun etc). The author is clearly informed and takes a strong, historical view of the situation. Looking at what the really smart people who brought us this innovation have said and done lately is a good start imo (just one datum of course, but there are others in this interesting survey). Deepmind hasn't shown anything breathtaking since their Alpha Go zero. Another thing to co…

>Deepmind hasn't shown anything breathtaking since their Alpha Go zero They went on to make AlphaZero, a generalised version that could learn chess, shogi or any similar game. The chess version beat a leading conventional chess program 28 wins, 0 losses, and 72 draws. That seemed impressive to me. Also they used loads of compute during the training but not so much during play.(5000 TPUs, 4TPUs). Also it got better th…

And didn’t they just do all of this? It’s not like 5 years have passed. Does he expect results like this every month?

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#377

Post by Faaak »

imant wrote: post #357
bitL wrote: post #348

I was recently "playing" with some radiology data. I had no chance to identify diagnoses myself with untrained eyes, something that probably takes years for a decent radiologist to master. Just by using DenseNet-BC-100-12 I ended up with 83% ROC AUC after a few hours of training. In 4 out of 12 categories this classifier beat best human performing radiologists. Now the very same model with no other change than adjust…

Would you mind sharing which other, unrelated dataset you have used the model on?

You can take a look at: https://github.com/sfikas/medical-imaging-datasets or http://www.radrounds.com/profiles/blogs/list-of-open-access-...

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#379

Post by afpx »

AI winter? Hardly. Current methods have only been applied to a very tiny fraction of problems that they can help solve. And, this trend will only accelerate until computing resources become too expensive.

As long as there is ROI, AI projects will continue to be financed, top thinkers around the world will be paid to do more research, and engineers will implement the most recent techniques into their products and services to stay competitive. This is a classic feedback system that results in exponential progress.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#380

Post by DonaldFisk »

djoyal wrote: post #301
Tepix wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For chess, the future possibilities are so vast, you can't call them "perfect knowledge" with a straight face.

A human might not be able to, but a computer can. Isn't the explicit reason research shifted to using Go the fact that you can't just number crunch your way through it?

AlphaGo Zero did precisely that. Most of its computations were done on a huge array of GPUs. The problem with Go is that look-ahead is more of a problem than in Chess, as Go has roughly between five and ten times as many possible moves at each point in the game. So Go was more of a challenge, and master-level play was only made possible by advances in computer hardware.
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