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AI winter is well on its way

blog.piekniewski.info

271–280 of 518 posts

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#271
There's a lot of good stuff coming from research in AI these days. Still, I think the author's right.

As with the onset of the previous AI winter a generation ago, the problem is this: Once a problem gets solved (be it OCR or Bayesian recommendation engines or speech recognition or autocomplete or whatever) it stops being AI and starts being software.

As for self-driving cars: I recently took a highway trip in my Tesla Model S. I love adaptive cruise control and steering assistance: they reduce driver workload greatly. But, even in the lab-like environment of summertime limited access highways, driverless cars are not close. Autosteer once misread the lane markings and started to steer the car into the side of a class 8 truck. For me to sit in the back seat and let the car do all the work, that kind of thing must happen never.

Courtesy is an issue. I like to exit truck blindspots very soon after I enter them, for example. Autosteer isn't yet capable of shifting slightly to the left or right so a driver ahead can see the car in a mirror. Maybe when everything is autonomous that won't be an issue. But how do we get there.

Construction zones are problems too: lane markings are confusing and sometimes just plain wrong, and the margin for error is much less. Maybe the Mobileye rig in my car can detect orange barrels, but it certainly doesn't detect orange temporary speed limit signs.

This author is right. AI is hype-prone. The fruits of AI generally function as they were designed, though, once people stop overselling them.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Funding for this basic science isn't going away. What make this 3rd/4th boom in AI different? The other AI winter, the funding for these science went from well funded to little funding. I'm skeptical, with respect of course, on your statement because it doesn't have anything to back that up other than it produce useful technologies. Wouldn't this statement imply that the other previous AI which experience AI Winter…

The previous AI winters were funded by speculative investments (both public research and industry) with the expectation that this might result in profitable technologies. And this didn't happen - yes, "the other previous AI which experience AI Winter (expert system, and whatever else) didn't produce useful enough technologies to have funding", the technologies developed didn't work sufficiently well to have widesprea…

I've recently had a number of calls from recruiters about new startups in the UK in the AI space, some of them local and some of them extensions of US companies. Some of them were clearly less speculative (tracking shipping and footfall for hedge funds) while others were certainly more speculative sounding. The increase of the latter gives me the impression that there is a bit of speculation going on at the moment.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#273
post #3

Judea Pearl sees a way out of the winter. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/05/machi...

I can recommend his new book, "The book of Why" very highly. Even though I am very familiar with Bayes nets, I discovered that that a lot of progress has been made in that side of AI.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#274

A different take by Google’s cofounder, Sergey Brin, in his most recent Founders’ Letter to investors: “The new spring in artificial intelligence is the most significant development in computing in my lifetime.” He listed many examples below the quote. “understand images in Google Photos; enable Waymo cars to recognize and distinguish objects safely; significantly improve sound and camera quality in our hardware; und…

> understand

what is this 'understand'?

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hi, why in your analysis you spoke only about the companies that are not doing so well in self driving leaving out waymo success story? They are already have been hauling passengers without a safety pilot since last October. I guess without the minimum problem otherwise we would have heard plenty in the news like it happened for Tesla and Uber accidents. Is it not too convenient to leave out the facts that contradict…

Where are the Waymo cars running? Everywhere? Are they still veering into buses to avoid sandbags?

Phoenix, and they plan to start a commercial service by the end of the year in several US cities.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#276
post #241
post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't speak for the other items, but these >translate over 100 languages in Google Translate; >caption over a billion videos in 10 languages on YouTube; barely even work. Yeah, it's a difficult problem but it's not even close to being solved.

Google Translate is way, way better than it used to be (at least German > English which I suppose is probably an easier task than many languages).

Google Translate of Goethe:

    Have now, ah! Philosophy,
    Law and medicine,
    And unfortunately also theology
    Thoroughly studied, with great effort.
    Here I am, I poor gate!
    And I'm as smart as before
word for word not completely bad, but then it breaks when we have to translate 'Tor'. Google Translate is clueless because it is unable to derive that here the 'fool' is meant.

It's unable to 'understand' that 'I poor gate' makes no sense at all.

Google Translate is the 'poor gate'.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#277
post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not like humanity really needs another chess playing program 20 years after IBM solved that problem (but now utilizing 1000x more compute power). I just find all these game playing contraptions really uninteresting. There are plenty real world problems to be solved of much higher practicality. Moravec's paradox in full glow.

Big Blue relied on humans to do all the training. Alpha Go zero didn't need humans at all to do the training. That's a pretty major shift for humanity.

It's Deep Blue, not Big Blue. The parameters used by its evaluation function were tuned by the system on games played by human masters.

But it's a mistake to think that a system learning by playing against itself is something new. Arthur Samuel's draughts (chequers) program did that in 1959.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#278
post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The difference between the current AI renaissance and the past pre-winter AI ecosystems is the level of economic gain realized by the technology I would argue this is well discounted by level of investment made against the future. I don't think the winter depends on the amount that somebody makes today on AI, rather on how much people are expecting to make in the future. If these don't match, there will be a winter…

Just like it did for ecommerce? Expectations we're wildly inflated, there was a bust, the market re adjusted and value was created

Only after the dot-com bust killed off all the weaklings ... there was a brief "cold-snap" after 2001 ... then Web 2.0 happened.

So I guess we're waiting for something similar to happen with AI and then get AI 2.0?

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Strangely enough he didn’t speak at all about waymo self driving cars that are already hauling passengers without a safety driver. Given that he needs to hide the facts that go against his narrative I don’t really think that what he is convinced of will become reality.

In a very confined area. He mentions similar issues with Tesla's coast-to-coast autopilot ride: The software is not general enough yet to handle it. That seems to be the case for Waymo as well.

And how is this a failure of AI? The most optimistic opinions on where we would see autonomous car were on the 2020s. Instead we have autonomous car hauling people on the streets without any safety driver since 2017. And if everything goes accordingly their plan they will launch a commercial service by the end of the year in several US cities. To me it seems a resounding success, not a failure.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not like humanity really needs another chess playing program 20 years after IBM solved that problem (but now utilizing 1000x more compute power). I just find all these game playing contraptions really uninteresting. There are plenty real world problems to be solved of much higher practicality. Moravec's paradox in full glow.

I guess there are reasons why researchers build chess programs: it is easy to compare performance between algorithms. When you can solve chess, you can solve a whole class of decision-making problems. Consider it as the perfect lab.

I think chess may actually be the worst lab. Decisions made in chess are done so with perfect knowledge of the current state and future possibilities. Most decisions are made without perfect knowledge.
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