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AI winter is well on its way
171–180 of 518 posts
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#172Earlier quoted context omitted.
Improvements in search, translation, image recognition and categorization, voice recognition, and text to speech off the top of my head. I'm sure there are a lot more.
Yeah but those are all pretty terrible to the actual end consumer. They might be cool technologies but at the end of the day, I am a user that hates dealing with them. IVRs are terrible a experience. Image recognition is iffy at best. Text to speak is terrible. In 10 years maybe they will have it hashed out... just like 10 years ago, or 20 years ago
What are you talking about? Google assistant is entirely ML driven text to speech and sounds great, wavenet by deepmind is almost indistinguishable from human speech.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#173Earlier quoted context omitted.
I never claimed AI was boring or run of the mill, just that it's not in my current interest. It's when I hear Hawking make claims like this, I call ignorance. "Computers can, in theory, emulate human intelligence, and exceed it,' he said. 'Success in creating effective AI, could be the biggest event in the history of our civilization. Or the worst. We just don't know. So we cannot know if we will be infinitely helped…
So, Hawking's preposition is that AI can surpass human intelligence. Is this the part you're disagreeing with? It's one thing to disagree, and it's another to call it ignorant. I for one agree that it can / will surpass human intelligence, it's just a question of when.
Unless natural disaster and/or war resets humanity, it seems inevitable. One only needs to concede that there is (probably) nothing special about the biological nature of the brain.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#174Author's reasons: 1.Hype dies down (which is really good! Meaning the chance of burst, is actually lower!) 2.Doesn't scale is false claim. DL methods have scaled MUCH better than any other ML algorithms in recent history (scale SVM is no small task). Scaling for DL methods are much either as comparing to other traditional ML algorithms, where it can be naturally distributed and aggregated. 3. Partially true. But self…
Author here: I'm using deep learning daily so I have a bit of an idea on what I'm talking about. 1) Not my point. Hype is doing very well. But narrative begins to crack, actually indicative of a burst... 2) DL does not scale very well. It does scale better than other ML algorithm because those did not scale at all. If you want to know what scales very well, look at CFD (computational fluid dynamics). DL in nowhere ne…
"Author here: I'm using deep learning daily so I have a bit of an idea on what I'm talking about."
Very weak to appeal to authority. The only true argument I can find against DL/ML/AI atm is the continuing appeal to authority by PhDs who have zero engineering knowledge, zero business sense and zero understanding of risk assessment.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#175"Deepmind hasn't shown anything breathtaking since their Alpha Go zero"
... what about when the Google assistant near perfectly mimicked a human making a restaurant reservation .... the voice work was done at DeepMind.
All the problems in AI haven't been solved yet? Well no, of course not. Limitations exist and our solutions need to be evolved.
I think perhaps the biggest constraint is requiring huge amounts of training data so solve problem X. Humans simply don't need that, which must be some indication that what we're doing isn't quite right.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#176Warning 23 year old CS grad angst ridden post: I'm very sick of the AI hype train. I took a PR class for my last year of college, and they couldn't help but mention it. LG Smart TV ads mention it, Microsoft commercials, my 60 year old tech illiterate Dad. Do any end users really know what it's about? Probably not, nor should that matter, but it's very triggering to see something that was once a big part of CS turned…
I'm in same boat, except now I have to deal with both this and blockchain. It's pretty clear to everyone pushing this is being dishonest. Sometimes I wonder if they intentionally being dishonest or if they just don't know what they don't know. Very few people are doing useful true machine learning, and the applications are very specific with its own set of quirks. It's just to make some quick money and get out. What…
I work for a consultancy and I was brought in to talk about ‘our blockchain strategy’, because I was one of the few people at the company who actually read the white papers and had been invested in it. This was towards the end of the last bull run. I think they expected me to tell them to go all in on it, but I essentially said it was a bunch of bullshit hype and a solution in search of a problem and then I didn’t get invited to any more meetings. A few weeks later they announce we’re going to start selling block chain solutions right as the crypto market crashes.
Meanwhile in the real world they can’t even figure out the basics like containers and Cicd which we’re actually dealing with in our actual contract.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#177I’m not sure how the hype wagon started but I for one am glad it’s about to pop.
I am working (founded) a startup and while we have AI on the roadmap for about a years time, it isn’t something that’s central to our product. (We already use some ML techniques but I’d not confidently boast its the same thing as AI).
Cue an informal lunch with a VC guy who takes a look, says we’re cool and tells us just to plaster the word AI in more places - he was sure we could raise a stupendous sum of cash doing that.
As an AI enthusiast I was bothered by this. We have everyone and their mother hyping AI into areas it’s not even relevant in, let alone effective at.
A toning down would be healthy. We could then focus on developing the right technology slowly and without all the lofty expectations to live up to.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#178Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Hi, it appears that "sensationalist garbage" triggered quite a bit of a discussion. Yes. Sensationalist. > I also omitted Cruise automation and a bunch of other companies, perhaps because they have more responsible backup drivers that so far avoided fatal crashes. So your explicit reason for omitting Waymo, as I understand it, is that it didn't support your argument?
> Yes. Sensationalist. Yes, perhaps. But I'm entitled to my opinion just as you are entitled to yours. And time will tell who was right. > So your explicit reason for omitting Waymo, as I understand it, is that it didn't support your argument? You see, when you make any argument, you always omit the infinite number of things that don't support it and focus on the few things that do. The fact that something does not s…
This is a list of your phrases in this comment that I find, in my opinion, condescending.
> And time will tell who was right.
> You see, when you make any argument
> You might also note that this is not a scientific paper, but an opinion. Yes, nothing more than an opinion.
> And yet this opinion appears to shared by quite a few people, and makes a bunch of other people feel insecure. Perhaps there is something to it? We will see.
> So far you have not provided such an argument
I immediately identified this same tone in your paper. In your argumentation, you quite agressively hinted hat people which don't share your views are not very intelligent. You also have a tendency to present your sayings as prophetic, which appeared multiple times both in the paper and in this comment.
These observations put me in alarm towards your arguments, which I found mostly weak, sometimes used in bad faith. I flagged as such the Twitter argument, analysing the frequency of A. Ng's tweets, and denouncing its "outrageous claims", with an example where the AI score is overall only 0.025 less accurate than a practician.
I also thought that you used a different (your own) definition of scaling than most, and used it to make an argument, which was therefore unconvincing (but parent said that already).
Overall, to me, this was not a very pleasant read, and I dislike the fact that you attack the hype on machine learning by enjoying the polarization that comes with anti-hype articles such as yours. I also don't think that making people feel insecure is such a great indicator that what you're saying is relevant or prophetic.
I hope this helps you prophecies https://www.physics.ohio-state.edu/~kagan/AS1138/Lectures/Go... ;)
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#179We call it deep learning, but it is deep pattern matching. Extremely useful, but don't expect it to result in thinking machines.
Are our brains magic? If they aren't then surely they must be doing something that we can reproduce. We've built so many things that we considered "thinking machines" in the recent past (realistic speech synthesis, image recognition and captioning, human-level translation, elaborate recommender systems, robust question answering) on "deep pattern recognition".
I believe we can make thinking machines. And "deep pattern matching" will be part of it. But it will need to fit in another architecture, most likely a lot like (deep) reinforcement learning. Probably with strong focus on modeling and predicting the environment. But also with some kind of goal modeling.
See also for this not-magic: https://psyarxiv.com/387h9
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#180A real Winter is a lack of warmth. An AI winter is a lack of ______