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AI winter is well on its way

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Re: AI winter is well on its way

#141

Post by dorgo »

felippee wrote: post #119
nopinsight wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The brain most likely has much more than a petaflop of computing power and it takes at least a decade to train a human brain to achieve the grandmaster level on an advanced board game. In addition, as the other comment says, they learn from hundreds or thousands of years of knowledge that other humans have accumulated and still lose to AlphaZero with mere hours of training. Current AIs have limitations but, at the ta…

Sure, but have you heard about Moravec's paradox? And if so, don't you find it curious that over the 30 years of Moore's law exponential progress in computing almost nothing improved on that side of things, and we kept playing fancier games?

to save some clicks:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moravec%27s_paradox

Moravec's paradox is the discovery by artificial intelligence and robotics researchers that, contrary to traditional assumptions, high-level reasoning requires very little computation, but low-level sensorimotor skills require enormous computational resources.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#142

Post by akvadrako »

mastrsushi wrote: post #113

Warning 23 year old CS grad angst ridden post: I'm very sick of the AI hype train. I took a PR class for my last year of college, and they couldn't help but mention it. LG Smart TV ads mention it, Microsoft commercials, my 60 year old tech illiterate Dad. Do any end users really know what it's about? Probably not, nor should that matter, but it's very triggering to see something that was once a big part of CS turned…

AI taking over is the biggest threat facing humanity, but I don't think Hawking ever claimed it was imminent; it's likely 1000+ years away.

It should be obvious why a superior intelligence is something dangerous.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#143

Post by checker659 »

slowmovintarget wrote: post #24
mirceal wrote: post #17

I would not call it the “AI winter”. If you look at what people have called AI over time, the definition and the approaches have evolved (sometimes drastically) over time. Instead of being stuck on the fact that deep learning and the current methods seem to have hit a limit I think I am actually excited about the fact that this opens the door for experimenting other approaches that may or may not build on top of what…

Perhaps it'd be more correct to call it a "Strong AI Winter". We're no closer to "aware" machines. We've simply gotten very good at automating tasks that were once difficult to automate.

There never was a Strong AI Summer to begin with.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#144

Post by digitalzombie »

tensor wrote: post #87
joe_the_user wrote: post #81

This is a deep, significant post (pardon pun etc). The author is clearly informed and takes a strong, historical view of the situation. Looking at what the really smart people who brought us this innovation have said and done lately is a good start imo (just one datum of course, but there are others in this interesting survey). Deepmind hasn't shown anything breathtaking since their Alpha Go zero. Another thing to co…

I'm sure the same could be said for early computer graphics before the GPU race. You don't need Moore's Law to make machine learning fast, you can also do it with hardware tailored to the task. Look at Google's TPUs for an example of this. If you want an idea of where machine learning is in the scheme of things, the best thing to do is listen to the experts. _None_ of them have promised wild general intelligence any…

> Funding for this basic science isn't going away.

What make this 3rd/4th boom in AI different?

The other AI winter, the funding for these science went from well funded to little funding.

I'm skeptical, with respect of course, on your statement because it doesn't have anything to back that up other than it produce useful technologies. Wouldn't this statement imply that the other previous AI which experience AI Winter (expert system, and whatever else) didn't produce useful enough technologies to have funding?

I'm currently on the camp of there is going to be an AI Winter III coming.

> None_ of them have promised wild general intelligence any time soon.

The post talk about Andrew Ng wild expectation on other things such as radiologist tweet. While it's not wild general intelligence. What I think the main article and also I am thinking is the outrageous speculation. Another one is the tesla self driving, it doesn't seem to be there yet and perhaps we're hitting the point of over promise like we did in the past and then AI winter happen because we've found the limit.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#145

Post by goolulusaurs »

nopinsight wrote: post #43
felippee wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Author here: I'm using deep learning daily so I have a bit of an idea on what I'm talking about. 1) Not my point. Hype is doing very well. But narrative begins to crack, actually indicative of a burst... 2) DL does not scale very well. It does scale better than other ML algorithm because those did not scale at all. If you want to know what scales very well, look at CFD (computational fluid dynamics). DL in nowhere ne…

What do you think of advances like those in major DeepMind papers? They seem to represent significant shifts in capabilities once matured. Here's a recent example: Unsupervised Predictive Memory in a Goal-Directed Agent https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17177442

This paper is amazing, and exactly what I was thinking of posting in response to that part of the article. The amount of research Deepmind is putting out is astonishing, and even if you are paying attention it's hard to keep up with it all. Here are just a few papers I've been looking at from the last few months, maybe none of them are advancements on the level of AlphaGo & Zero but they still show significant progress in a wide variety of areas.

https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.10542

https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.07740

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0102-6

https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.09401

https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.06370

https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.03006

https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.08617

https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.01561

And there are many others besides these, not to mention all the significant research being done by everyone else who isn't at Deepmind. The authors idea that interest and development of these topics is dying down or that Deepmind is running out of meaningful research to do just seems uninformed.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#146

Post by digitalzombie »

imh wrote: post #40

FYI This post is about deep learning. It could be the case that neural networks stop getting so much hype soon, but the biggest driver of the current "AI" (ugh I hate the term) boom is the fact that everything happens on computers now, and that isn't changing any time soon. We log everything and are even starting to automate decisions. Statistics, machine learning, and econometrics are booming fields. To talk about t…

Bayesian can be seen as a subset of deep learning or hell a superset.

AI is a superset and Machine learning is a subset of AI and most funding is in deep learning. Once Deep Learning hit the limit I believe there will be an AI winter.

Maybe there will be hype around statistic (cross fingers) which will lead to Bayesian and such.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#147

Post by mastrsushi »

danielbarla wrote: post #138
mastrsushi wrote: post #113

Warning 23 year old CS grad angst ridden post: I'm very sick of the AI hype train. I took a PR class for my last year of college, and they couldn't help but mention it. LG Smart TV ads mention it, Microsoft commercials, my 60 year old tech illiterate Dad. Do any end users really know what it's about? Probably not, nor should that matter, but it's very triggering to see something that was once a big part of CS turned…

Your post has two different points, and I think they should be separated. Yes, there's an AI hype train, and it's pretty tiring. I'm starting to wonder when the first AI-enhanced shoes are going to come out. Or an AI enhanced blockchain, right? That said, the rest of the rant about AI is less solid. Sure, AI today is fairly boring and run of the mill data processing / optimisation stuff (I sort of know, though I only…

I never claimed AI was boring or run of the mill, just that it's not in my current interest. It's when I hear Hawking make claims like this, I call ignorance.

"Computers can, in theory, emulate human intelligence, and exceed it,' he said. 'Success in creating effective AI, could be the biggest event in the history of our civilization. Or the worst. We just don't know. So we cannot know if we will be infinitely helped by AI, or ignored by it and side-lined, or conceivably destroyed by it.”

I feel like I'm in a high school stoner circle, yeeesh!

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#148

Post by richardbatty »

mastrsushi wrote: post #113

Warning 23 year old CS grad angst ridden post: I'm very sick of the AI hype train. I took a PR class for my last year of college, and they couldn't help but mention it. LG Smart TV ads mention it, Microsoft commercials, my 60 year old tech illiterate Dad. Do any end users really know what it's about? Probably not, nor should that matter, but it's very triggering to see something that was once a big part of CS turned…

> People believe them because of their credentials, when professors who actually teach AI will say otherwise

While some experts like Andrew Ng are sceptical of AI risk, there are lots of others like Stuart Russell who are concerned.

Here is a big list of quotes from AI experts concerned about AI risk: http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/05/22/ai-researchers-on-ai-ri...

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#149

Post by Jach »

imh wrote: post #40

FYI This post is about deep learning. It could be the case that neural networks stop getting so much hype soon, but the biggest driver of the current "AI" (ugh I hate the term) boom is the fact that everything happens on computers now, and that isn't changing any time soon. We log everything and are even starting to automate decisions. Statistics, machine learning, and econometrics are booming fields. To talk about t…

Honestly as much as it is slightly irritating to see deep learning hogging all the glory, there's a lot of money being sloshed around and quite a bit of it is spilling over to non-deep learning too. Which is great. An AI winter may be coming, though I think it's at minimum several years off, since big enterprises are just getting started with the most hyped things. If the hype doesn't return on its promises enough for sustained investment (that's a rather big if since the low hanging fruit aren't yet all picked) then the companies and funding will eventually recede, maybe even trigger another winter, but just as it takes a while to ramp up, it will also take a while to course correct. In the meantime all the related areas get better funding and attention (and chance to positively contribute to secure further investment) that they'd otherwise not have since we'd still be stuck in the low funding model from the last winter.
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