AI is favorable for big companies to better scale their services. It seems that Facebook have also faced AI scaling drawbacks and they are developing there own AI hardware for it https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/18/17254236/facebook-designi...
AI winter is well on its way
101–110 of 518 posts
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#102Earlier quoted context omitted.
How can something be biased when it's listing facts? Those are actual features that are available today to anyone, that were made possible by AI. Do you think it would be possible to type "pictures of me at the beach with my dog" without AI in such as short time frame? Or to have cars that drive themselves without a driver? These are concrete benefits of machine learning, I don't understand how that's biased.
How can something be biased when it's listing facts? If there are 100 facts that indicate a coming AI winter, and Brin just talks up the 15 facts that indicate AI's unalloyed dominance, that's definitely biased.
First, what are said 100 facts? The article looks at fairly mundane metrics such as number of tweets or self-driving accidents...
Second, I'm not quite sure that's how it works. Like in mathematics, if your lemma is X, you can give a 100 examples of X being true, but I only need a single counter-example to break it.
In my opinion a single valid modern use-case of AI is enough to show that we're not in an AI winter. By definition an AI winter means that nothing substantial is coming out of AI for a long period of time, yet Brin listed that Google alone has had a dozen in the past few years.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#103Has anyone done something genuinely useful with ml/ai/whatever outside of advertising or stock trading? I am genuinely curious if it has really been applied to real commercial applications.
Improvements in search, translation, image recognition and categorization, voice recognition, and text to speech off the top of my head. I'm sure there are a lot more.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#104Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hi, it appears that "sensationalist garbage" triggered quite a bit of a discussion. This is typically indicative that the topic is "sensitive". Perhaps because many people feel the winter coming as well. Maybe, maybe not, time will tell. And FYI, Tesla is in the business of making self driving car. If you read the article, you might learn that Tesla is actually the first company to sell that option to customers. You…
> Hi, it appears that "sensationalist garbage" triggered quite a bit of a discussion. Yes. Sensationalist. > I also omitted Cruise automation and a bunch of other companies, perhaps because they have more responsible backup drivers that so far avoided fatal crashes. So your explicit reason for omitting Waymo, as I understand it, is that it didn't support your argument?
> Yes. Sensationalist.
Yes, perhaps. But I'm entitled to my opinion just as you are entitled to yours. And time will tell who was right.
> So your explicit reason for omitting Waymo, as I understand it, is that it didn't support your argument?
You see, when you make any argument, you always omit the infinite number of things that don't support it and focus on the few things that do. The fact that something does not support my argument, does not mean it contradicts it.
You might also note that this is not a scientific paper, but an opinion. Yes, nothing more than an opinion. May I be wrong? Sure. And yet this opinion appears to shared by quite a few people, and makes a bunch of other people feel insecure. Perhaps there is something to it? We will see.
But in the worst case it will make some people think a bit and make an argument either for or against it. I may learn today a good argument against it, that will make me think about it more and perhaps I will change my opinion, or I'll be able to defend it.
So far you have not provided such an argument, but I wholeheartedly encourage you to do so.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#105I've always understood the claim that deep learning scales to be a claim about deployment and use of trained models, not about training. The whole point is that you can invest (substantial) resources upfront to train a sufficiently good model, but then the results of that initial investment can be used with very small marginal costs. OP's argument on this front seems disingenous to me. His focus on Uber and Tesla (wh…
> I've always understood the claim that deep learning scales to be a claim about deployment and use of trained models, not about training. The whole point is that you can invest (substantial) resources upfront to train a sufficiently good model, but then the results of that initial investment can be used with very small marginal costs.OP's argument on this front seems disingenous to me.
Remember that this is about deep "learning". If anything, the first thing that comes to mind is that it's the training (learning) that scales well.
> His focus on Uber and Tesla (while not even mentioning Waymo) is also a truly strange omission.
Omission? That means something that has been left out, so how could it be the focus?
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#106I have to say that any autonomous vehicle tested on a public road MUST have a physically fit, non-obese driver in the driver's seat that is EXTREMELY agile and has the reflexes necessary to ensure the safety of the public. How obese that "driver" in that uber incident was is very surprising. That person could not physically qualify to test pilot a military aircraft, so how is that person allowed to test pilot a prototype vehicle on a public road???
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#107Has anyone done something genuinely useful with ml/ai/whatever outside of advertising or stock trading? I am genuinely curious if it has really been applied to real commercial applications.
Improvements in search, translation, image recognition and categorization, voice recognition, and text to speech off the top of my head. I'm sure there are a lot more.
Yeah but those are all pretty terrible to the actual end consumer. They might be cool technologies but at the end of the day, I am a user that hates dealing with them. IVRs are terrible a experience. Image recognition is iffy at best. Text to speak is terrible. In 10 years maybe they will have it hashed out... just like 10 years ago, or 20 years ago
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#108Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, the way I see it: mostly, these are “improvements”, huge ones, but still. They ride the current AI tech wave, take it an optimize apps with it. For most things, that people dream of and do marketing about need another leap forward, which we haven’t seen yet (it’ll come for sure)
Almost anything that has to do with image understanding is entirely AI. Good luck writing an algorithm to detect a bicycle in an image. This also includes disease diagnostic as most of those have to do with analyzing images for tumors and so on. Also, while a lot of these can be seen as "improvements", in many cases, that improvement put it past the threshold of actually being usable or useful. Self-driving cars for…
I agree, the effects can be very impressive. I meant, that what is achievable is quite clear now and that we need a major innovation/steps for the next leap
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#109This is a deep, significant post (pardon pun etc). The author is clearly informed and takes a strong, historical view of the situation. Looking at what the really smart people who brought us this innovation have said and done lately is a good start imo (just one datum of course, but there are others in this interesting survey). Deepmind hasn't shown anything breathtaking since their Alpha Go zero. Another thing to co…
>Deepmind hasn't shown anything breathtaking since their Alpha Go zero
They went on to make AlphaZero, a generalised version that could learn chess, shogi or any similar game. The chess version beat a leading conventional chess program 28 wins, 0 losses, and 72 draws.
That seemed impressive to me.
Also they used loads of compute during the training but not so much during play.(5000 TPUs, 4TPUs).
Also it got better than humans in those games from scratch in about 4 hours whereas humans have had 2000 years to study them so you can forgive it some resource usage.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#110I'm sorry but it feels really good to be true about many things like Blockchain and AI/ML hype, get ostracized for having such opinions by communities like HN and Reddit, wait few years and then find out that they have all jumped ships when you didn't check.
You first-worlders need to stop blowing smoke up your asses and wind down a little bit.
Next "big" thing to be killed by reality: Quantum computers (another BS made out of thin air by the likes of IBM for the sake of staying relevant and making undeserved money or some such)