For me Google is attacking on 2 main fronts
1. Quntam computing
2. Machine Learning/AI
If they are able to combine the 2. A big if though the cost analysis will change for AI quite dramatically.
AI winter is well on its way
91–100 of 518 posts
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#92I've always understood the claim that deep learning scales to be a claim about deployment and use of trained models, not about training. The whole point is that you can invest (substantial) resources upfront to train a sufficiently good model, but then the results of that initial investment can be used with very small marginal costs. OP's argument on this front seems disingenous to me. His focus on Uber and Tesla (wh…
Hi, it appears that "sensationalist garbage" triggered quite a bit of a discussion. This is typically indicative that the topic is "sensitive". Perhaps because many people feel the winter coming as well. Maybe, maybe not, time will tell.
And FYI, Tesla is in the business of making self driving car. If you read the article, you might learn that Tesla is actually the first company to sell that option to customers. You can go to their website right now and check that out.
Uber, like it or not is one of the big players of this game. I agree they may have somewhat toxic culture, but I guarantee you there are plenty of really smart people there who know exactly the state of the art. And their failure is therefore indicative of that state of the art.
I also omitted Cruise automation and a bunch of other companies, perhaps because they have more responsible backup drivers that so far avoided fatal crashes. But I analyze the California DMV disengagement reports in another post if you care to look. And by no means any of these cars is safe for deployment yet.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#93A different take by Google’s cofounder, Sergey Brin, in his most recent Founders’ Letter to investors: “The new spring in artificial intelligence is the most significant development in computing in my lifetime.” He listed many examples below the quote. “understand images in Google Photos; enable Waymo cars to recognize and distinguish objects safely; significantly improve sound and camera quality in our hardware; und…
Well, the way I see it: mostly, these are “improvements”, huge ones, but still. They ride the current AI tech wave, take it an optimize apps with it. For most things, that people dream of and do marketing about need another leap forward, which we haven’t seen yet (it’ll come for sure)
Almost anything that has to do with image understanding is entirely AI. Good luck writing an algorithm to detect a bicycle in an image. This also includes disease diagnostic as most of those have to do with analyzing images for tumors and so on.
Also, while a lot of these can be seen as "improvements", in many cases, that improvement put it past the threshold of actually being usable or useful. Self-driving cars for example need to be at least a certain level before they can be deployed, and we would've never reached that without machine learning.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#94Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is less useless than you think. Captioning video could allow for video to become searchable as easily as text is now searchable. This could lead to far better search results for video and a leap forward in the way people produce and consume video content.
I think he is stating that the quality of the transcription is poor.
You don't need amazing transcription to search a video. A video about X probably repeats X multiple times, and you only really need to detect it properly once.
As for the users, sure the translation may not be perfect, but I'm sure if you were deaf had no other way of watching a video, you would be just fine with the current quality of the transcription.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#95Number of tweets as reliable data points? Very dubious. Simple explanation: They are busy working, so less time to tweet.
Maybe they're working on something so cool, that the AI winter may not even come. Sure, there's a lot of marketing-speak around AI at the moment.
But this wave of AI seems a lot stronger with better fundamentals than 20 years ago. At the very least, at least we have the hardware to actually RUN NN's cost effectively now as oppose to grinding your system to a halt back then.
Before AlphaGo, it wasn't even clear when a computer could beat a top professional in go, let alone crush humans in the game - low bound guesses were 50 years.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#96Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hi, author here: Well first off: letters to investors are among the most biased pieces of writing in existence. Second: I'm not saying connectionism did not succeed in many areas! I'm a connectionist by heart! I love connectionism! But that being said there is disconnect between the expectations and reality. And it is huge. And it is particularly visible in autonomous driving. And it is not limited to media or CEO's,…
How can something be biased when it's listing facts? Those are actual features that are available today to anyone, that were made possible by AI. Do you think it would be possible to type "pictures of me at the beach with my dog" without AI in such as short time frame? Or to have cars that drive themselves without a driver? These are concrete benefits of machine learning, I don't understand how that's biased.
How can something be biased when it's listing facts?
If there are 100 facts that indicate a coming AI winter, and Brin just talks up the 15 facts that indicate AI's unalloyed dominance, that's definitely biased.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#97I've always understood the claim that deep learning scales to be a claim about deployment and use of trained models, not about training. The whole point is that you can invest (substantial) resources upfront to train a sufficiently good model, but then the results of that initial investment can be used with very small marginal costs. OP's argument on this front seems disingenous to me. His focus on Uber and Tesla (wh…
Hi, it appears that "sensationalist garbage" triggered quite a bit of a discussion. This is typically indicative that the topic is "sensitive". Perhaps because many people feel the winter coming as well. Maybe, maybe not, time will tell. And FYI, Tesla is in the business of making self driving car. If you read the article, you might learn that Tesla is actually the first company to sell that option to customers. You…
> Hi, it appears that "sensationalist garbage" triggered quite a bit of a discussion.
Yes. Sensationalist.
> I also omitted Cruise automation and a bunch of other companies, perhaps because they have more responsible backup drivers that so far avoided fatal crashes.
So your explicit reason for omitting Waymo, as I understand it, is that it didn't support your argument?
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#98> Deepmind hasn't shown anything breathtaking since their Alpha Go zero. Didn't this just happen? Maybe my timescales are off, but I've been thinking about AI and Go since the late 90s, and plenty of real work was happening before then. Outside a handful of specialists, I'd expect another 8-10 years before the current state of the art is generally understood, much less effectively applied elsewhere.
Also why does every single result has to be breathtaking? Here's a quick example, at IO they announced that their work on Android improved battery life by up to 30%. That's pretty damn impressive.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#99Has anyone done something genuinely useful with ml/ai/whatever outside of advertising or stock trading? I am genuinely curious if it has really been applied to real commercial applications.
Re: AI winter is well on its way
#100Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm kinda curious now where those giant datasets will come from now that there's a big push for privacy with things like GDPR preventing some random researcher from just buying data off whatever data mining corp is most relevant to their AI's purpose
I’m kinda curious now which researchers have been buying PII from data mining corps.
Cambridge analytica comes to mind