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AI winter is well on its way

blog.piekniewski.info

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Re: AI winter is well on its way

#71
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CFD was merely used as an example of something that does scale well. I'm not sure it was the best example, since CFD isn't very common. But basically you have a volume mesh and each cell iterates on the Navier-Stokes equation. So if you have N processor cores, you break the mesh in N pieces, each of which get processed in parallel. Doubling the number of cores allows you process double the amount in the same time, mi…

Thanks for that, that is essentially my point. Agree it is not very rigorous, but it gets the idea across. By scalable we'd typically think "you throw more gpu's at it and it works better by some measure". Deep learning does that only in extremely specific domains, e.g. games and self play as in alpha go. For majority of other applications it is architecture bound or data bound. You can't throw more layers, more basi…

More compute -> more precision is just one field's definition of scalable... Saying that DNNs can't get better just by adding GPUs is like complaining that an apple isn't very orange.

To generalize notions of scaling, you need to look at the economics of consumed resources and generated utility, and you haven't begun to make the argument that data acquisition and PhD student time hasn't created ROI, or that ROI on those activities hasn't grown over time.

Data acquisition and labeling is getting cheaper all the time for many applications. Plus, new architectures give ways to do transfer learning or encode domain bias that let you specialize a model with less new data. There is substantial progress and already good returns on these types of scalability which (unlike returns on more GPUs) influence ML economics.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They mean useless in the end result. Of course having perfect captions could potentially allow indexable videos, but the case is that the captions suck. They're so bad in fact that it's a common meme on Youtube comments for people to say "Go to timestamp and turn on subtitles" so people can laugh at whatever garbled interpretation the speech recognition made.

Have you used/tried them recently? The improvement relative to 5 years ago is major. At least in English, they are now good enough that I can read without listening to the audio and understand almost everything said. (There are still a few mistakes here and there but they often don’t matter.)

Yes I’ve had to turn them off on permanently. Felt I could follow video better without sound often than with subtitles.

I tried to help a couple channels to subtitle and the starting point was just sooo far from the finished product. I would guess I left 10% intact of the auto-translation. Maybe it would have been 5% five years ago; when things are this bad 100% improvement is hard to notice.

It is super cool how easy it is to edit and improve the subtitles for any channel that allows it.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#73

Deep learning maybe not the complete answer to gai, but it’s moving down the right path. Computers though are still years/decades away from approaching human brain power and efficiency, so my take is that current ai hype is 10 years too early - a good time to get in.

> but it’s moving down the right path

Time will tell. I think DL is amazing, but is no the right path towards solving problems such as autonomy. I think if you enter this field today, you should definitely take a look at other methods than DL. I actually spent a few years reading neuroscience. It was painful, and I certainly can't tell I learned how the brain works, but I'm pretty certain it has nothing to do with DL.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#75
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps it'd be more correct to call it a "Strong AI Winter". We're no closer to "aware" machines. We've simply gotten very good at automating tasks that were once difficult to automate.

A friend that’s more optimistic about Strong AI once said that the ML that goes on today will probably serve the purpose of driving the peripheral sense organs of a future AI. Although it stretches a bit what’s possible today I could see that. I would call this a win if this ends up happening although I still belive we’re hundreds of years away from Strong AI.

I'm inclined to agree with your friend.

This ability of DL to convert streams of raw noisy data into labeled objects seems like exactly what's needed to solve an intelligent agent's perceptual grounding problem, where an agent that's new to the world must bootstrap its perception systems, converting raw sensory input into meaningful objects with physical dynamics. Only then can the agent reason about objects and better understand them by physical interaction and exploration. This is one of the areas where symbolic AI failed hardest, but DL does best.

With some engineering, it's easy to imagine how active learning could use DL to ground robot senses - much like an infant human explores the world for the first year of life, adding new labels and understanding their dynamics as it goes.

I suspect the potential for DL's many uses will continue to grow and surprise us for at least another decade. If we've learned anything from the past decade of DL, it's that probabilistic AI is surprisingly capable.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that self-driving had/have been overhyped over the previous few years. The problem is harder than many people realize. The difference between the current AI renaissance and the past pre-winter AI ecosystems is the level of economic gain realized by the technology. The late 80s-early 90s AI winter, for example, resulted from the limitations of expert systems which were useful but only in niche markets and thei…

> The difference between the current AI renaissance and the past pre-winter AI ecosystems is the level of economic gain realized by the technology I would argue this is well discounted by level of investment made against the future. I don't think the winter depends on the amount that somebody makes today on AI, rather on how much people are expecting to make in the future. If these don't match, there will be a winter…

Because there is a dearth of experts and a lack of deep technical knowledge among many business people, there are still a great many companies that have not yet started investing in deep learning or AI despite potential profits based on current technology. Non-tech sectors of the economy are probably underinvesting at the moment.

This is analogous to the way electricity took decades to realize productivity gains in the broad economy.

That said, the hype will dial down. I am just not sure the investment will decrease soon.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#78

A different take by Google’s cofounder, Sergey Brin, in his most recent Founders’ Letter to investors: “The new spring in artificial intelligence is the most significant development in computing in my lifetime.” He listed many examples below the quote. “understand images in Google Photos; enable Waymo cars to recognize and distinguish objects safely; significantly improve sound and camera quality in our hardware; und…

When I saw the Google demo of a CNN using video to split a single audio stream of two guys talking over each other, I became a believer.

Hey, a small advice for the future: never build your belief entirely on a youtube video of a demo. In fact, never build your belief based on a demo, period.

This is notorious with current technology: you can demonstrate anything. A few years ago Tesla demonstrated a driverless car. And what? Nothing. Absolutely nothing.

I'm willing to believe stuff I can test myself at home. If it works there, it likely actually works (though possibly needs more testing). But demo booths and youtube - never.

Re: AI winter is well on its way

#80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for taking the time to render the more specific argument! I still don't think this is suggestive in a way that should influence readers. Here are some ways in which a naive "10x resources != 10x improvement" argument can err: - Improvement is hard to define consistently. Sometimes, improving classification accuracy by 0.5% means reducing error by 20%, and makes economic applications that have 100x the value or…

I certainly encourage everybody to consult the source material! Man, this is a blog, opinion by default not perfect. But when I hear the keyword "major advances" I'm highly suspicious. I had seen already so many such "major advances" that never went beyond a circle of self citing clique.

As a very concrete "major advance" consider Google Translate's tiny language models [1] that can beam to your phone, live in a few megabytes, and translate photographed text for you with low power usage. This was done with incredibly expensive centralized training, but checks every meaningful box for "scalable" AI.

[1] https://ai.googleblog.com/2015/07/how-google-translate-squee...

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