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Netflix is now worth more than Comcast

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Re: Netflix is now worth more than Comcast

#91

Post by rhizome »

ocdtrekkie wrote: post #61
rhizome wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One difference with cord-cutting vs. Comcast (et al) is that I have no idea how to watch sports on broadcast unless I come across it randomly channel surfing. That is, for me, it's not about money so much as control over distractions in my home. People have been clamoring for a la carte cable for years if not decades, and since the cable services either decline or are unable to provide this, technology finds a way. T…

A la carte cable was a "grass is greener on the other side" thing. People asked why they pay $60 a month for 100 channels if they only watch a handful. Now you can buy Netflix, Hulu, HBO, CBS All Access, Disney whatever, etc. each for $10 a month. You still end up paying $60 a month, but now you get six channels instead of 100.

You still end up paying $60 a month, but now you get six channels instead of 100.

And 94% of Comcast channels are trash. I have no problems with people who subscribe to Comcast based on the number of channels they carry, though. Personally, I don't need hardly any of them.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than Comcast

#92

Post by matte_black »

thisisit wrote: post #3

Comcast has 15 billion in net income last quarter whereas Netflix had 185 million. And PE ratio of comccast is 19 whereas Netflix is 188. In the future where the cord cutting trend continues and Netflix gains tons of subscribers the valuation might make sense. But for now, I feel this looks like very overvalued.

The mistake you are making is not taking into account forward earnings. Your reasoning may have worked in the past but tech companies and the markets these days are different. When you take forward earnings seriously, all these valuations start looking reasonable.

Why pay $40 for Netflix stock today if it’s damn near guaranteed to be a massive business in the future? You will pay $350+.

Why aren’t we paying $350+ for Comcast if it has 81x the net income of Netflix? Because Comcast is going down the shitter.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than Comcast

#93

Post by stcredzero »

wufufufu wrote: post #10

What's more shocking to me is that Netflix is worth more than Disney. Just look at the list of Disney subsidiaries[1], then look at how bad the average Netflix original movie is and then tell me if the market caps makes any sense at all. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_Disney

What's more shocking to me is that Netflix is worth more than Disney.

What is the chance that Disney can execute implementing its own Netflix? What is Disney's batting average on projects like that?

Re: Netflix is now worth more than Comcast

#94

Post by badminton1 »

thisisit wrote: post #3

Comcast has 15 billion in net income last quarter whereas Netflix had 185 million. And PE ratio of comccast is 19 whereas Netflix is 188. In the future where the cord cutting trend continues and Netflix gains tons of subscribers the valuation might make sense. But for now, I feel this looks like very overvalued.

Consider that Comcast operates exclusively in the US whereas Netflix operates globally.

This also gives Netflix more room for growth compared to Comcast.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than Comcast

#95

Post by stcredzero »

In 2018, why the heck is it that I can't click on something to indicate, "I want to watch this," then I get a notification when it airs, and have a list of shows/events now available to watch? If media companies want their advertisements to be worthwhile, why don't they get their act together and do this?

The answer is that they will try to implement this only for their own company, and this will fail. Such a thing could only succeed with a standard that everyone used.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than Comcast

#96

Post by kalleboo »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #85
rayiner wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Comcast will continue to jack up standalone broadband prices to hedge against fleeing video subscribers. Why? Because they can, and have very little competition in most markets. That's coming from the perspective of an HN reader, for whom wireless isn't "competition." (I get it, I've got two fiber lines to my house; 3 gigabits total. My daughter uses it to stream Magic Schoolbus.) But for the typical user, 5G wirel…

I'd argue that with more than two people in a household and everyone switching to streaming services, you'll need to offer at least 400-500GB data caps for fixed wireless 5G. Several of my renters are single, and their streaming usage for an individual is ~450GB/month.

For comparison, in Sweden right now you can get a 500 GB cap 4G broadband plan for $50/mo.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than Comcast

#97

Post by sk1pper »

wufufufu wrote: post #10

What's more shocking to me is that Netflix is worth more than Disney. Just look at the list of Disney subsidiaries[1], then look at how bad the average Netflix original movie is and then tell me if the market caps makes any sense at all. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_Disney

I get your point, and I agree with you overall, but it's not quite fair to compare Netflix movies to Disney movies. Netflix's wheelhouse in original content is TV series, not movies. IMO, they're second only to HBO in that space.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than Comcast

#98

Post by rayiner »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #85
rayiner wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Comcast will continue to jack up standalone broadband prices to hedge against fleeing video subscribers. Why? Because they can, and have very little competition in most markets. That's coming from the perspective of an HN reader, for whom wireless isn't "competition." (I get it, I've got two fiber lines to my house; 3 gigabits total. My daughter uses it to stream Magic Schoolbus.) But for the typical user, 5G wirel…

I'd argue that with more than two people in a household and everyone switching to streaming services, you'll need to offer at least 400-500GB data caps for fixed wireless 5G. Several of my renters are single, and their streaming usage for an individual is ~450GB/month.

You need 400-500GB to accommodate who? According to Comcast, median Xfinity data usage in 2H 2017 was 131 GB: https://www.xfinity.com/support/articles/data-usage-average-.... That's going to be squarely within the range of 5G (analysts are guessing around 200GB caps at first). Also, expect to see video content be zero-rated (it makes technical sense--watching Netflix from one of Netflix's co-located CDNs puts a lot less load on the network).

Remember, 5G doesn't need to be an alternative for everybody to wreck the ability to raise prices to compensate for lost TV revenue.

Re: Netflix is now worth more than Comcast

#100

Post by dsr_ »

paul7986 wrote: post #99

Hoping here in the US 5G brings all of us more home broadband options whether through Verizon Wireless, ATT or T-Mobile/Sprint. We desperately need other options besides just Comcast!

Then go talk to your city or county about building a community ISP. Competition is the number one driver of higher quality and lower prices.
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