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Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (113 Models Explained)

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Re: Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (113 Models Explained)

#21

Post by falcolas »

perseusprime11 wrote: post #19
tim333 wrote: post #10

Vaguely related I've found Yuval Harari's stuff interesting ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13905249 ) The >You told the Guardian that without meditation, you'd still be researching medieval military history — but not the Neanderthals or cyborgs. What changes has meditation brought to your work as a historian? > ... the entire exercise ... is to learn the difference between fiction and reality, what is real an…

To understand meditation, one has to understand how our brain works. Once you fully understand the brain, it's a no-brainer to meditate regularly. If you are game, I recommend everyone read the Happiness Hypothesis by Jonathan Haidt.

> To understand meditation, one has to understand how our brain works.

I'm fairly sure we're still decades if not centuries away from this. We barely understand the broadest strokes of the brain, and can only really treat its deficiencies by bathing the entire thing in chemicals.

Re: Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (113 Models Explained)

#22

Post by dontwantai »

I can't recall a joke about a President looking for an economist with only one hand. In economic forecasting there are mental models of the type: On the one hand, ... On the other hand. Polya how to solve list many ways to develop useful math analogies, but it seems that end result is not very satisfactory. I think that to make an intelligent decision you have to feel deeply involved in the subject, then some kind of unconcious force do wonders, it seems you can benefit learning or focussing in certain patterns, but I think that deep is better than breast. Also there is the theory of the hedgehog versus the fox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hedgehog_and_the_Fox

Re: Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (113 Models Explained)

#23

Post by bordercases »

Not enough mathematics. A substantial chunk of these are derived by analogy from analytical domains which are kind of on the fringe between pure math and applied math, like game theory and financial theory. There, the models and their primitives being described are part of a more coherent body of knowledge that lets you apply the concept precisely.

I'm going to get a reply that "oh but reading this Farnam Street stuff helps build intuition" and you might very well be right, but this knowledge is only developed to its fullest extent when it's precise and considered deductively. Taking a microecon course made it difficult for me to stop seeing microecon for at least a year. Freakonomics wouldn't have been technical enough.

Re: Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (113 Models Explained)

#24

Post by bordercases »

dontwantai wrote: post #22

I can't recall a joke about a President looking for an economist with only one hand. In economic forecasting there are mental models of the type: On the one hand, ... On the other hand. Polya how to solve list many ways to develop useful math analogies, but it seems that end result is not very satisfactory. I think that to make an intelligent decision you have to feel deeply involved in the subject, then some kind of…

Which is a model.

Re: Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (113 Models Explained)

#25

Post by thisoneworks »

> Most rational people.. one of the finest thinkers in the world..

Is this advice coming from a professor/scientist/philosopher? No, they are the investors who make the most money. In a neo-liberal society, the richest people get the intellectual authority to tell us how to make intelligent decisions. Incredible! /s

Re: Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (113 Models Explained)

#26

Post by jeffreyrogers »

bordercases wrote: post #23

Not enough mathematics. A substantial chunk of these are derived by analogy from analytical domains which are kind of on the fringe between pure math and applied math, like game theory and financial theory. There, the models and their primitives being described are part of a more coherent body of knowledge that lets you apply the concept precisely. I'm going to get a reply that "oh but reading this Farnam Street stuf…

I don't think I agree. At least in most cases. It might be important to learn the math in order for the models to make sense, but once you learn the model you don't need the math. For example, most circuit designers don't use any math (other than simple arithmetic and algebra) when designing circuits because they have heuristics that allow them not to think about the math. In that case, thinking about the math just gets you bogged down in the details.

Re: Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (113 Models Explained)

#27

Post by zby »

I like the idea that mental models are the most condensed form of knowledge. But I don't quite agree with the premise that there is some universal list that will be equally useful for everyone. Investors like Charlie Munger need to have a very broad knowledge - because they need to analyse all kinds of businesses - but for other peoples a list concentrating more on their field of work would be more useful.

Re: Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (113 Models Explained)

#28

Post by Scea91 »

alienjr wrote: post #14

One of the best blogs on learning and life wisdom.

His newsletter is actually the only newsletter that I get weekly and skim it regularly.

I agree with other commenters that sometimes the material is weak and more like "Do these 5 things that successful people (bankers, investors, entrepreneurs) do and be also succesful" but generally there is quality content on this blog.

Re: Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (113 Models Explained)

#29

Post by hashkb »

thisoneworks wrote: post #25

> Most rational people.. one of the finest thinkers in the world.. Is this advice coming from a professor/scientist/philosopher? No, they are the investors who make the most money. In a neo-liberal society, the richest people get the intellectual authority to tell us how to make intelligent decisions. Incredible! /s

Yes... some bias may have crept into this article. Never attribute to malice...

Re: Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (113 Models Explained)

#30

Post by pps43 »

Some of those are simply wrong.

For example, the section on power law says "The central limit theorem does not apply and there is thus no 'average' earthquake. This is true of all power-law distributions." But power laws with power -k have a well-defined mean if k>2, and finite variance if k>3.

The section on feedback loops implies that runaway is only possible with positive feedback, and that loops with negative feedback are stable.

Others are mutually exclusive. Tendency to stereotype is bad, but Bayesian method is good. Clearly both can't be right, and no rule is given to differentiate between those cases.

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