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Jürgen Schmidhuber says he’ll make machines smarter than us

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21–28 of 28 posts

Re: Jürgen Schmidhuber says he’ll make machines smarter than us

#21
post #13

Most software excels in a single domain: driving, flying, recording, parsing, etc. I think AI being smarter than us in a single domain like investing is feasible. But to be smarter than us in all domains, even parenting, love, intuition, etc. sounds infinitely more challenging. I think AI is usually thought of in terms of solving computationally-heavy or data-heavy problems. But to be "smarter than us", it would need…

Investing is not even remotely a single domain, unless you constrain it down to something fairly trivial like making minority investments in publicly traded US common stocks where being smarter doesn't really count for much. There is so much trading activity now that the markets have become quite efficient. In order to consistently generate alpha as an investor like Warren Buffet you need access to material nonpublic information (proprietary research), or some form of structural advantage. Those things require a huge range of human skills, not just raw smarts.

Re: Jürgen Schmidhuber says he’ll make machines smarter than us

#22
post #18
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lets use IQ as definition of intelligence, whether you agree that an IQ test is a good test for intelligence or not. I actually think it's doable to make a neural net that learns IQ tests, that will become better then the average human, then, by definition, is the "AI" more intelligent ?

> is the "AI" more intelligent? The issue with this is the different meanings of intelligence, pimarily 'hard is easy' (chess, go, IQ) vs 'easy is hard' (walking, balance, seeing) test. Once AI robots can win the Champions league at football (soccer) I'll be more impressed.

Or raise a good kid

Re: Jürgen Schmidhuber says he’ll make machines smarter than us

#23
post #21
post #13

Most software excels in a single domain: driving, flying, recording, parsing, etc. I think AI being smarter than us in a single domain like investing is feasible. But to be smarter than us in all domains, even parenting, love, intuition, etc. sounds infinitely more challenging. I think AI is usually thought of in terms of solving computationally-heavy or data-heavy problems. But to be "smarter than us", it would need…

Investing is not even remotely a single domain, unless you constrain it down to something fairly trivial like making minority investments in publicly traded US common stocks where being smarter doesn't really count for much. There is so much trading activity now that the markets have become quite efficient. In order to consistently generate alpha as an investor like Warren Buffet you need access to material nonpublic…

> material nonpublic information (proprietary research)

Agreed. Insider Trading.

Re: Jürgen Schmidhuber says he’ll make machines smarter than us

#24
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Investing is not even remotely a single domain, unless you constrain it down to something fairly trivial like making minority investments in publicly traded US common stocks where being smarter doesn't really count for much. There is so much trading activity now that the markets have become quite efficient. In order to consistently generate alpha as an investor like Warren Buffet you need access to material nonpublic…

> material nonpublic information (proprietary research) Agreed. Insider Trading.

Doing your own research isn't insider trading unless you get it from an insider.

Re: Jürgen Schmidhuber says he’ll make machines smarter than us

#25
post #18
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lets use IQ as definition of intelligence, whether you agree that an IQ test is a good test for intelligence or not. I actually think it's doable to make a neural net that learns IQ tests, that will become better then the average human, then, by definition, is the "AI" more intelligent ?

> is the "AI" more intelligent? The issue with this is the different meanings of intelligence, pimarily 'hard is easy' (chess, go, IQ) vs 'easy is hard' (walking, balance, seeing) test. Once AI robots can win the Champions league at football (soccer) I'll be more impressed.

Shoot, I'd be impressed if someone could build a robot that lasts an entire game and is agile and light enough to guarantee there wouldn't be multiple broken bones on the opposing team every game.

Re: Jürgen Schmidhuber says he’ll make machines smarter than us

#26
For what it's worth, I'm certainly glad Schmidhuber is around. Not only for his great accomplishments but also for the humanity he brings to science and scientific research. In history, accomplishments of this kind are overlooked at times as nothing more than footnotes in time completely overlooking the human dynamics that exist in these highly competitive communities. The "drama" is just as valuable as the resulting research. How many remember or even know the spats between Newton and Leibniz? Tesla and just about everyone in his time (Einstein, Marconi, etc)? He's right in bringing attention to all those that contribute and to demand proper recognition.

Moreover, I also appreciate his focus of AI outside of the marketing/advertising world. Google - just as an example - employees more PhDs than any other public or private organization. All that brain power for the sake of creating a better human trap - aka adtech. Jürgen's most important plea is to use all this AI for real and tangible human progress. Nothing wrong with that in my book.

Re: Jürgen Schmidhuber says he’ll make machines smarter than us

#28
Unfortunate hit piece.

Even worse than having your peers crap on you, is the author stating that you wish these crappy remarks don't define your profile (like they did previous profiles), and then having exactly that happen.

This will now probably forever be his angle in the popular media: Godfather of AI, mistaken, scoffed at by his peers. Not necessarily wrong, but not flattering either.

I can relate to the gut-wrenching feeling of seeing your ideas being bandied around as original, without any attribution. Of course someone in the field of reinforcement learning is obsessed with the credit assignment problem, no matter the time passed. How can AI researchers hope to solve this pressing problem, when they can't even assign credit to the originators of their ideas?

I wonder if this harsh piece would have been written the way it was, if the author realized that Schmidhuber may be on the spectrum, and that his erratic and obsessive behavior is an ailment, not a deliberate choice.

In the future, Schmidhuber will be mentioned in the same breath as Turing. Of his peers wishing he'd shut up, I don't have the same expectation.

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