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Too Clever by Half

epsilontheory.com

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Re: Too Clever by Half

#141

Post by jmull »

I read the entire article.

My take: don't bother unless you have some time and are looking to be mildly entertained (very mildly IMO).

It's fluff. The central analogy is a little amusing but doesn't even roughly fit reality.

In chasing its premise the article ignores a key dynamic of "financial innovation" schemes, which is that the schemers largely avoid the negative consequences of their schemes. Well, the money spigot stops at some point, which the schemers see as a tragedy, but they generally aren't losing too much of what they grabbed before the end. In 2008, I think most had to endure talk of losing their bonuses (not actually loss of bonuses, just talk and sometimes a temporary delay). The real consequence is that they have to get back to work building up a new scheme so they can do it all again.

Re: Too Clever by Half

#142

Post by Sean1708 »

DFHippie wrote: post #81
Xuper wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting thing is feminism is also winning skirmishes but loosing the metagame. Unless having less children but with more disorders born in fractured families is the goal. Something to ponder.

I think you're mixing disparate phenomena to make a political point. There are places where feminism had a strong impact on culture. There are fractured families. There are families with fewer children (whether this is a good or a bad thing is debatable and a matter of perspective and opinion). But the places where the effect of feminism on the equality of opportunity, power, and so forth are most strongly expressed…

> As for the prevalence of disorders, that's a pretty big bag, diagnostic criteria change, and diagnosis itself is iffy.

Would you mind explaining this one to me, please? Is Xuper trying to suggest that being a feminist makes it more likely that your children will have health disorders?

Re: Too Clever by Half

#143

Post by [deleted] »

dpark wrote: post #65
arethuza wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm quite proud of the range of results I got in maths at University - I tried the "no study" approach in first year and got burned badly . Fortunately we didn't have the uncivilized GPA system here so my first year indiscretions had no impact on my final degree.

GPA has no impact on your final degree in the US either. You complete the same coursework and get the same degree as the person with a perfect GPA. The only real exception is if you’re screwing up so bad that they kick you out, in which case you don’t get the degree because you don’t complete the coursework.

[deleted]

Re: Too Clever by Half

#147

Post by snowwrestler »

stevenwoo wrote: post #5
nazca wrote: post #4

The only issue with his metaphor is that coyotes have been doing very well at the meta game. At the time of European contact there were no coyotes anywhere near Connecticut. Lewis and Clark didn't encounter them until they hit the great plains. Actually only a few decades ago there were no coyotes near the eastern US. But coyotes are clever and they've learned to adapt and live in close proximity to humans. And as we…

Slightly OT but the evidence we have strongly suggests that exterminating the wolf is the primary reason for the expansion of the range of the coyote to most of the continental USA. http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20170516-when-wolves-return-t...

Undoubtedly true when looking at the continent overall, but the salient point is that coyotes are thriving today in suburban and in some cases even urban environments. These are not areas that were ever owned by wolves, and to the point of the blog post, areas that require coyotes to "play the game" well with humans.

Re: Too Clever by Half

#148

Post by mholt »

Slightly OT: For us on our farm back in Iowa, the clever animals were the raccoons. It got to the point where we had to put locks with keys on the grain bins; metal hooks and clasps---even some requiring refined motor skills to open---were not enough to keep the buggers out. Fortunately, they couldn't pick the locks. :)

Re: Too Clever by Half

#149

Post by maroonblazer »

pavel_lishin wrote: post #100
rhizome wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look up The Marshmallow Test. If there was one thing I wish my parents had instilled in me, it's good study habits.

Wasn't that debunked? It's useful as a myth - "teach your kids patience", "don't go into the woods alone" - but it doesn't actually turn out to be true.

Maybe you're thinking of "grit", popularized by Angela Duckworth.

https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2016/05/25/479172868/angela-...

Re: Too Clever by Half

#150

Post by m3kw9 »

ItsMe000001 wrote: post #30
m3kw9 wrote: post #3

He’s just saying block chain is the next CDS(credit default swaps)

...but for individual instead of for institutional investors: > Turns out that B̶i̶t̶c̶o̶i̶n̶ a AAA-rated tranche of Alt-A mortgages wasn’t the store of value that coyote-math “proved” it was, to the detriment of i̶n̶d̶i̶v̶i̶d̶u̶a̶l̶ institutional investors who put a significant portion of their portfolio into these securities, and to the ruin of those who used leverage to acquire these securities.

I think opensourced block chain implementation is way more transparent than the bundled derivative instruments the bankers made. The problem is that people will still invest in stuff like shit coins or use stuff like Tether where nothing is transparent
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