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Buffett bashes Bitcoin as nonproductive, thriving on mystique

reuters.com

171–180 of 189 posts

Re: Buffett bashes Bitcoin as nonproductive, thriving on mystique

#171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He bought IBM in 2011. That was his first venture in tech companies. Apple came along in 2016.

So he probably lost money on that.

There's an estimate here. Roughly break even https://www.gurufocus.com/news/651725/how-much-did-warren-bu...

Re: Buffett bashes Bitcoin as nonproductive, thriving on mystique

#172
post #130

Curious that both Buffett and Bill Gates [0] are publicly criticizing Bitcoin right now. People make big dumb investments every day, and you don't see Buffett and Gates talking to the media about it. What's their objective? And why together? And why now? [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/07/bill-gates-i-would-short-bit...

Good question... Though likely the answer is pretty mundane: It's probably something they keep being asked about in interviews, and they feel some obligation to dampen the hype on cryptcurrency- Also, there's a "survivorship bias" issue, in that both guys got very successful using business strategies involving an unrelated domain, so of course they would say "If you want to build wealth, maybe instead focus on these…

Yeah that and I think an effort to stop the public getting burnt.

Re: Buffett bashes Bitcoin as nonproductive, thriving on mystique

#173
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He seems to understand intrinsic value pretty well.

If there's one thing I've learned in my 45 years, it's that actually no one has figured yet what the term "intrinsic value" really means. The more you dig into that term it just ends up meaning "what someone else is willing to pay for it" blended together with some fuzzy subjective notions of morality.

Perhaps, though:

> In The Theory of Investment Value, written over 50 years ago, John Burr Williams set forth the equation for value, which we condense here: The value of any stock, bond or business today is determined by the cash inflows and outflows - discounted at an appropriate interest rate - that can be expected to occur during the remaining life of the asset.

- Buffett in http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1992.html

Re: Buffett bashes Bitcoin as nonproductive, thriving on mystique

#174
post #97
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"I don't find it wise for anyone, Buffett or otherwise, to expound on things they don't know anything about." He's talking about investment vehicles. I would say he knows more about those than most of us here on this board.

Everyone that listened to him 20 years ago missed Amazon, Google, etc.

Not really. He said he wasn't buying tech because he didn't understand it, not that others shouldn't buy.

Indeed here's a quote from the 1998 letter

> Despite the pathetic technical skills of your Chairman, I'm delighted to report that GEICO, Borsheim's, See's, and The Buffalo News are now doing substantial business via the Internet.

Re: Buffett bashes Bitcoin as nonproductive, thriving on mystique

#175
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So he probably lost money on that.

There's an estimate here. Roughly break even https://www.gurufocus.com/news/651725/how-much-did-warren-bu...

I figured it had to be close.

Re: Buffett bashes Bitcoin as nonproductive, thriving on mystique

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compare how liquid it is to real-estate. I'd say it is pretty liquid.

Wait, who considers real estate money? If the answer is no one, then this doesn’t seem like an interesting point of comparison for liquidity.

Liquidity comes in degree as does money stock. Sure, it isn't narrow money, but still relevant to your point which you so carefully misrepresent. Median confirmation time has never exceeded 29 minutes, and is around 15 minutes. Transactions are actually faster, but unconfirmed. But, go ahead, cherry pick for your point.

Re: Buffett bashes Bitcoin as nonproductive, thriving on mystique

#177
post #55
post #23

> Buffett said investors would instead be much better off investing in U.S. stocks, which in turn are also a far better investment than 10- or 30-year U.S. government bonds... He said he would much rather have Berkshire’s pile of cash and equivalents be $30 billion, rather than the $108.6 billion it was at the end of March, but good deals have not emerged. $100B is a colossal amount of money to have sitting around in…

S&P tracking ETFs are the most liquid equity instruments, but $100b is large even for them. The largest ETF by assets is SPY, with $250b. 'Liquid' for you or me or even Stevie Cohen isn't even close to the same thing as 'liquid' for Warren Buffett. http://etfdb.com/compare/market-cap/

SPY has a daily trading volume of $25B. I would have thought that this would allow someone to liquidate ~$1B every day, without distorting the market. This would have allowed Buffett to raise the cash needed for any acquisitions, in a relatively short period of time. Is there any hard data on how big a trade would have to be, to cause significant price distortion?

Speaking of which, it's also common for acquisitions to be carried out using stock, instead of cash. Given that acquirees are open to getting paid in stock, I would have thought they would be open to getting paid in SPY.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4164368-spy-cost-liquidity

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/macashstockequit...

Re: Buffett bashes Bitcoin as nonproductive, thriving on mystique

#179
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

" Bitcoin has produced a transaction processing infrastructure that looks a lot like Amazon Web Services (something I am sure Buffett would agree is extremely valuable). " How many transactions per minute can AWS do?

> How many transactions per minute can AWS do? How many transactions can the bitcoin network do if Amazon goes out of business or cancels AWS? (hypotheticals seem relevant here, to make the point) How many transactions can your business perform if AWS blocks you, or your transaction type?

Bitcoin is designed to process <10 transactions per second.

Re: Buffett bashes Bitcoin as nonproductive, thriving on mystique

#180
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electricity into security

In practice, it's not very secure because the difficulty mechanism ensures that hash power always centralizes. Any widespread commodity miner will automatically defeat itself -- that's why all of those early ASIC startups fizzled out. As soon as they shipped something, their value proposition was nullified. Add to this that the payout mechanics strongly incentivize pooled mining, even for people with powerful miners,…

What do you think of the way things like ZCash and Monero solve that problem? They use hashing algorithms that are more or less immune to ASICS. This is especially true in the case of Monero which just tweaked their PoW algo in order to set monero ASICS back. Stopping ASICs promotes the average person mining on their gaming rig or things like that.

Also "A small handful of men ultimately control the Bitcoin network because they have authority over 50%+ of the hash power"

I think that's a bit hyperbolic. A small handful of men control where the hashing power currently is. However, that can change very quickly. If you don't like what a pool is trying to use your hashing power for, leave that pool.

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