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China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

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Re: China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m due for an upgrade but I’m refusing on account of new flagships not having 3.5 headphone jack.

Did the Pixel 2 get rid of the headphone jack?

The fashion is to externalize the headphone jack, not to get rid of it.

https://store.google.com/us/product/usb_c_headphone_adapter

Re: China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

#102
post #90

See: * Bass Diffusion Model: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bass_diffusion_model * Diffusion of Innovation Model: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations These models have been fairly accurate in forecasting diffusion of innovation. While many of the innovators have started to exit and move on, this leaves the imitators around in a slowing market. Apple has been surprisingly good at being the forefront…

I think Apple is struggling on trying to figure out what the next big thing could be - its definitely not yet watch and wearables.

Re: China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

#103
post #102
post #90

See: * Bass Diffusion Model: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bass_diffusion_model * Diffusion of Innovation Model: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations These models have been fairly accurate in forecasting diffusion of innovation. While many of the innovators have started to exit and move on, this leaves the imitators around in a slowing market. Apple has been surprisingly good at being the forefront…

I think Apple is struggling on trying to figure out what the next big thing could be - its definitely not yet watch and wearables.

Cars. Absolutely no doubt they need to be in that industry.

Re: China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

#104

China’s growth fueled by massive debt is over(350% to gdp, government + corporate + individuals). it’s barely returning one yuan for every yuan debt it takes on. The Chinese consumer is weighed down by housing debt and credit card debt. And the tariff is going to hit the consumers hard; soy prices increases already has Chinese consumers screaming.

As a reference, USA's total debt to GDP is 852%: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_position_of_the_Un...

This is not the debt to GDP ratio, this is the sum of all government debts and assets. The debt to GDP ratio only includes public debts. The United States has a debt to GDP ratio of 104.17% as of 2015, less than the average for an OECD country. If you want to compare private debt to GDP, we're doing just fine there as well.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/debtgdpratio.asp

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/private-debt-to-gd...

Re: China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

#105
post #90

See: * Bass Diffusion Model: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bass_diffusion_model * Diffusion of Innovation Model: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations These models have been fairly accurate in forecasting diffusion of innovation. While many of the innovators have started to exit and move on, this leaves the imitators around in a slowing market. Apple has been surprisingly good at being the forefront…

Ad Apple) I think Apple is struggling on trying to figure out what the next big thing could be - its definitely not yet watches and wearables.

Re: China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

#106
post #100
post #90

See: * Bass Diffusion Model: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bass_diffusion_model * Diffusion of Innovation Model: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations These models have been fairly accurate in forecasting diffusion of innovation. While many of the innovators have started to exit and move on, this leaves the imitators around in a slowing market. Apple has been surprisingly good at being the forefront…

> Apple has already moved onto the next technological innovation: Apple Watch and wearables. Seriously? Are there any number at all to show that wearables are a growth bet at this point? The Apple Watch (which entered the market three years ago !) has had an uptake at least an order of magnitude lower than the iPad, the last "next technological innovation" that turned out not to be. Tablets were hot for a while, but…

If iPhone sales growth would level to what the Mac is doing then there's not a real problem. Apple is pushing in Enterprise where it wasn't before, services and indeed wearables (I see AirPods everywhere). I think people will buy devices less often, like you saw with iPads. But keep buying Apple.

Re: China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

#107
post #15

Almost any $200+ phone made since 2015 has a pretty good camera, screen, speed for most people. Why upgrade when what you have is good enough? One used to check out gizmodo/engadget when a new phone came out but seems not anymore as "the new" is only incremental.

I’ll upgrade my phone as long as the camera keeps getting better which it does. I want the pictures of my kids to be at the highest quality, since 30 years from now they’ll be compared against really sophisticated imagery.

Re: China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

#108
post #100
post #90

See: * Bass Diffusion Model: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bass_diffusion_model * Diffusion of Innovation Model: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations These models have been fairly accurate in forecasting diffusion of innovation. While many of the innovators have started to exit and move on, this leaves the imitators around in a slowing market. Apple has been surprisingly good at being the forefront…

> Apple has already moved onto the next technological innovation: Apple Watch and wearables. Seriously? Are there any number at all to show that wearables are a growth bet at this point? The Apple Watch (which entered the market three years ago !) has had an uptake at least an order of magnitude lower than the iPad, the last "next technological innovation" that turned out not to be. Tablets were hot for a while, but…

Remember, Apple seems to enter frustratingly late and frustratingly slow (unless it's to change a port, LOL)

IF wearables is going to be much of a thing I wouldn't expect to see their flagship products come out until everyone else has had some time to work out the kinks with early adopters. Then watch Apple come in with some of the sticky problems solved (like touch on the smartphone, fit/finish with laptops, simpler OS, etc...).

Re: China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

#109
post #5

After relentless growth we're about to arrive at a plateauing smartphone market. I wish I could read insights from experts on what to expect in coming years in smartphone market in light of similar markets which entered a no growth zone. Specifically what will happen to prices, market shares , unit sales, pace of innovation, competition, international growth, developer ecosystems. Anyone?

Hopefully a plateauing of the smartphone market along with China starting to produce memory will start to bring memory prices down. And then manufacturers will consider adding 8-16GB of memory... and at that point I wonder if more people will just use their phone docked to a monitor as their PC if Apple/Google/Microsoft do a better job facilitating it.

Not sure about that - the Microsoft phones do it really well bit it doesn't seem to have taken off. Only place it has is the Nintendo Switch.

Re: China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook app was 600MB on my girlfriend's phone. Unbelievable. What the hell does Facebook need 600MB for? (granted it was the mostly the data but it made her phone run like crap because the data is stored in internal storage, not on SD card). I cleared the data and it was back to 150MB in less that an hour. So off course people feel like their phones run like crap with apps like that. I mean even a $50 phone today i…

This anecdote is hard to believe (the slows the phone down part) because unless the app is constantly hammering the storage system with I/Os even as a background process, storage usage doesn't mean it's actively slowing the Phone down. Also it turns out that caching people's photos, etc., will save a lot of bandwidth and improve loading times (especially precious on mobile). Those JPEGs add up quickly...

Honestly I don't know how much consideration devs are actually paying attention to when most of them are probably using fairly recent high-end phones instead of the super cheap low-end mediatek android phones.

I've also noticed that low-end android phones tend cheap out on storage since most people only care about the size of storage not the speed.

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