After relentless growth we're about to arrive at a plateauing smartphone market. I wish I could read insights from experts on what to expect in coming years in smartphone market in light of similar markets which entered a no growth zone. Specifically what will happen to prices, market shares , unit sales, pace of innovation, competition, international growth, developer ecosystems. Anyone?
Certainly we're expecting sales to slow as smartphone sales plateau, but why is it happening in China first? Is it a leading indicator of slowing growth? After all, smartphone purchases are most decidedly discretionary.
Countries where the 24 month subsidy cycle is dominant will have a lot more inertia that countries where they are rare.
Also, China is home to the "cheap flagship" brands, so much of the middle range of the market will already buy close to the technological limit. In countries where the middle of the market is mostly held by the lesser offerings of more premium brands, upgrades to a higher price tier can effectively substitute technological progress (for a while): customers expect a faster phone after n years, and if the technology doesn't deliver many will be willing extend their price range. If it helps. For those who already had a "cheap flagship", it won't.