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China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

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Re: China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

#41

Post by ddalex »

Eyght wrote: post #25
bruceb wrote: post #15

Almost any $200+ phone made since 2015 has a pretty good camera, screen, speed for most people. Why upgrade when what you have is good enough? One used to check out gizmodo/engadget when a new phone came out but seems not anymore as "the new" is only incremental.

I've been using the same phone for almost 4 years now (oneplus one). It came with 3gb ram and 64gb storage and cost about $300, vat included. There are two tells that I'm using an old phone. The camera is really bad compared to the current ones, and it doesn't have any biometric unlock.

I am still rocking the original OnePlus one, too. I appreciate the lack of a biometric sensor, and camera is actually better than a lot of newer phone cameras - the only cameras that outshine it are iPhones, top of the line Samsung's and OP5T. So pretty decent for a 4 year old phone?

Re: China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

#42

Post by reaperducer »

cs702 wrote: post #16

Wow, a 21% year-over-year drop... and this makes the fourth consecutive quarter of annual declines (in the previous three quarters, shipments had dropped -3%, -5%, and -14% year-over-year). A hard landing indeed. The implications for phone makers are unpleasant: price competition is going to intensify and profit margins, which are already thin, will get squeezed even more and might even turn negative. (Only Apple, wh…

>Only Apple, which makes exclusively high-end devices for style-conscious, less-price-sensitive consumers,

This is a very tired cliche, and untrue to anyone who's ever seen any of the hundreds of ads where new iPhones are available for $0 from most carriers.

Re: China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

#43

Post by ZeroGravitas »

GFischer wrote: post #12
anilshanbhag wrote: post #10

It sometimes amazes me that people switch their phones so often. I tend to have a phone for 3 years. Many of my friends change every year ! One step to towards reducing global warming is reducing consumption.

I have a Xiaomi phone. It costs less than 200 dollars after taxes in my country, and it's great. My cell phone company basically gives them for free in exchange for the 2 year contract, so after my 2 years are up, I'm definitely switching it for a newer model, or I'm leaving money on the table. Many people are way more careless than I am, or heavier users, and definitely switch every year (or even less!). Chinese pho…

They don't give them away free, they build the cost into your contract. If there's sufficient competition in your local market you'll be able to buy a sim-only deal that costs less and returns that money to you and let's you upgrade on your own schedule to a phone of your own choosing.

Re: China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

#44

Post by lotsofpulp »

reaperducer wrote: post #39
grizzles wrote: post #34

This is a good thing if you want a truly open source phone. Smartphones have become a commodity. Yet the solidarity among fabricators against a { us: hardware, you: software } business model has been remarkable. Margins have been razor thin for awhile, the business is incredibly cutthroat. Though it might come from Taiwan, I hope this is the straw that breaks the camels back. BTW I'm talking on the low end here. It's…

"Razor thin" may be something of an exaggeration. Apple's margin on iPhones is 59-64%[1]. Samsung is 17%[0]. "Razor thin" would be the grocery industry, which is usually under 3%. [0]: http://fortune.com/2016/08/23/apple-samsung-smartphone-profi... [1]: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-iphone/apples-iphon...

Product with more volume (especially routine like groceries) usually have less margin due to lower risk than those with low volume and higher risk (of not selling in the necessary time period).

Re: China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

#45

Post by grizzles »

reaperducer wrote: post #39
grizzles wrote: post #34

This is a good thing if you want a truly open source phone. Smartphones have become a commodity. Yet the solidarity among fabricators against a { us: hardware, you: software } business model has been remarkable. Margins have been razor thin for awhile, the business is incredibly cutthroat. Though it might come from Taiwan, I hope this is the straw that breaks the camels back. BTW I'm talking on the low end here. It's…

"Razor thin" may be something of an exaggeration. Apple's margin on iPhones is 59-64%[1]. Samsung is 17%[0]. "Razor thin" would be the grocery industry, which is usually under 3%. [0]: http://fortune.com/2016/08/23/apple-samsung-smartphone-profi... [1]: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-iphone/apples-iphon...

Exactly my point. This market has winner take all type dynamics.

Consider the textiles industry. There are brands selling expensive t-shirts for nice profit margins. And there are a ton of t-shirt exporters that can probably barely string a few dimes together.

It's exactly the same in the smartphone market. There are ~50+ Chinese smartphone manufacturers that are barely profitable. They wholesale $20-$40 phones in the Indian market to stay afloat.

Re: China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

#46

Post by nopinsight »

genefriend wrote: post #36
nopinsight wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interestingly, the US' total private and public debt amounts to 3.5 times the GDP as well but few seem to have as much concern over its debt as they do China's. Also, the UK appears to have a similar level of private debt as the US, and only a bit less public debt. On public debt alone, China:UK:US is 66:85:107 percent of GDP, according to the IMF. So what is the reason for major concerns over one but not others? Dev…

1.) dollar is reserve currency. Yuan is not. Yuan is barely convertible 2.) US has large debt but way larger assets. 40% of the worlds wealth in fact 3.) US gdp to debt is only around 100%

It's clear that the US is much stronger from the asset point of view.

If one looks at real economy, however, China can basically produce almost anything they need, except oil and some advanced electronics (which they are catching up fast and might become self-sufficient within 10 years). The US can do the same in the medium term but it will take time to reestablish its manufacturing industry to cover all needs.

Both are basically self-sufficient if need be. There is no severe weakness in the real economies of either country (except oil for both, over the medium term).

> 3.) US gdp to debt is only around 100%

You mean debt to GDP? Yes for public debt alone, but the same figure for China is around 66%. Check out my post above for comparisons of various measures and references.

Re: China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

#47

Post by gd2 »

klodolph wrote: post #27
bruceb wrote: post #15

Almost any $200+ phone made since 2015 has a pretty good camera, screen, speed for most people. Why upgrade when what you have is good enough? One used to check out gizmodo/engadget when a new phone came out but seems not anymore as "the new" is only incremental.

People upgrade because what they have becomes worse as time goes on. Maybe you don't get OS updates any more and you can't run apps you want, maybe you do get OS updates and your phone is now slower. Maybe your battery charge lasts less than a day and you don't know you can replace your battery or don't want to. Some people I know almost always end up with cracked screens and upgrade rather than repair, and some othe…

Also apps do get updated, and when they do they sometimes grow by almost a 100 MB. Repeat that X times, and the RAM on the phone turns out to be insufficient for larger apps of the new now.

Re: China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

#48

Post by system16 »

reaperducer wrote: post #42
cs702 wrote: post #16

Wow, a 21% year-over-year drop... and this makes the fourth consecutive quarter of annual declines (in the previous three quarters, shipments had dropped -3%, -5%, and -14% year-over-year). A hard landing indeed. The implications for phone makers are unpleasant: price competition is going to intensify and profit margins, which are already thin, will get squeezed even more and might even turn negative. (Only Apple, wh…

>Only Apple, which makes exclusively high-end devices for style-conscious, less-price-sensitive consumers, This is a very tired cliche, and untrue to anyone who's ever seen any of the hundreds of ads where new iPhones are available for $0 from most carriers.

> iPhones are available for $0 from most carriers.

In the US maybe. This discussion is about China.

Re: China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

#49

Post by seanmcdirmid »

reaperducer wrote: post #42
cs702 wrote: post #16

Wow, a 21% year-over-year drop... and this makes the fourth consecutive quarter of annual declines (in the previous three quarters, shipments had dropped -3%, -5%, and -14% year-over-year). A hard landing indeed. The implications for phone makers are unpleasant: price competition is going to intensify and profit margins, which are already thin, will get squeezed even more and might even turn negative. (Only Apple, wh…

>Only Apple, which makes exclusively high-end devices for style-conscious, less-price-sensitive consumers, This is a very tired cliche, and untrue to anyone who's ever seen any of the hundreds of ads where new iPhones are available for $0 from most carriers.

That cliche isn’t true at all in China. When you only have to pay around 100RMB/month for your plan, there isn’t much room for phone subsidies.

Re: China smartphone market suffers hard-landing, shipments decline 21% in Q1 2018

#50

Post by ProAm »

chrisper wrote: post #38
ProAm wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really want that phone but find it too expensive. if Im going to spend that amount of money, I might as well get a Samsung or iPhone

A Samsung S9+ costs way more and so does the iPhone X.

Way more being around a hundred USD? Last I checked the P20 Pro was ~ $850 USD the Galaxy S9+ is $939 USD
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