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Tesla Plunges After a Conference Call

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Re: Tesla Plunges After a Conference Call

#381

Post by erikpukinskis »

matwood wrote: post #183
3pt14159 wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah I agree with you nodesocket. Musk comes off as focusing on the right things, not getting bogged down by a x% difference on capital outlay here or there.

> not getting bogged down by a x% difference on capital outlay here or there. People would not be after him so much if he hadn't missed almost every prediction he's made. The company is quickly approaching a cliff that the Musk cheerleaders cannot simply cheer him across. Timelines really start to matter when your runway is running out.

Why do they keep asking him? It seems stupid. He can tell you very clearly what will do (and he does it). He obviously can’t predict the timeline.

Either it’s impossible to predict, or Elon can’t do it. Either way continuing to expect accurate predictions from him is the definition of insanity.

Re: Tesla Plunges After a Conference Call

#382

Post by Avshalom »

erikpukinskis wrote: post #380
Avshalom wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>And yet none of them are landing autonomous reusable rocket modules I watched Armadillo do that in 2005 >Of all the 100% electric cars on road, he has two in the top 5 And neither invented the category nor managed to turn a profit on it >Who else has been pushing battery storage and solar systems that aren’t ugly af and simply made of old parts glued together in parallel? For batteries: Panasonic, LG but also liter…

When people are talking about SpaceX’s accomplishments, you can assume an implied “* from orbit” I guarantee you John Carmack would not say he did anything close to what Musk did.

Yeah but they 'didn't do anything close' to what SpaceX (not Musk) did, 12.5 years ago. That nobody bothered to do it in the (presumably) 20 years that it was viable is probably an indication that while aesthetically cool it's probably not all that economically practical.

Re: Tesla Plunges After a Conference Call

#383

Post by CaptainZapp »

nostrademons wrote: post #326
dragontamer wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Elon has always seemed to have the attitude of "not everyone should invest in this stock". This is financial suicide for the company. TSLA needs more money this year or next year. Losing $1 Billion per quarter means he is relying on his shareholders each time he raises another round of equity. The $1.7+ Billion to build the Gigafactory was from the Stock Market ( https://electrek.co/2016/05/25/tesla-tsla-stock-offe…

He's probably planning to ICO. Worked for Telegram, and taking questions from YouTube is a great first step toward raising billions in cryptocurrency. Also, recent events have proved that pissing off the entire financial community so much that they refuse to lend you money because you always lose it is no barrier to becoming President of the USA - and, in fact, can help, because the entire electorate hates the financ…

At first I wanted to downvote your comment to the lowest rungs of hell until I actually read it.

+ 1 for the funniest thing I read on HN for a ling time. Kudos!

Re: Tesla Plunges After a Conference Call

#384

Post by erikpukinskis »

dragontamer wrote: post #254
killjoywashere wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting proposition: deflate your stock value which makes the stock more accessible to risk-tolerant investors, while shedding the sort of nervous investor you don't want.

That also deflates your next round of equity offerings. Tesla will likely need to offer 10-million or maybe more shares to the market. Lowering your stock price before you offer equity is incredibly stupid. Unless Musk has a plan to get money from somewhere else?

Sales?

Re: Tesla Plunges After a Conference Call

#385

Post by erikpukinskis »

greglindahl wrote: post #281
jacquesm wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you feel that pissing off institutional investors is going to reduce the price of the next raise I'm fine with that. As for the second part of your comment: The Economist wrote that Tesla would have to raise money this year, 2.5 to 3 Billion $. Elon Musk's response to that: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/984705630106673152 And as far as I can see it has no qualifiers. The complete text of the tweet: "The Econ…

Notice that his response to the Economist is in the form that I said -- the word "need" is present. As for Tesla's targets, they have changed (downwards) several times, and I've seen plenty of people noticing. IIRC the target announced after Q4 earnings was 2,500 Model 3's per week by the end of Q1, and they missed by 500. Honestly, this entire discussion is the kind of thing I'd expect on Seeking Alpha, not Hacker N…

Tesla might raise to accelerate the Semi production line or the Model Y line, but I can’t fathom that’d happen this year.

If we’re talking about Model 3, there’s also no way they’ll have unforeseen expenses in Q3/4. It takes way more than 6 months to plan a billion dollar expenditure, so it seems exceedingly unlikely Tesla’s expenditure model is wrong.

So that leaves their revenue model as the only wildcard. If they dramatically fail to increase production... say they plateau at 3k per week... that’s like $50k * 3k * 35 weeks = $5 billion in Model 3 revenue.

Plus they have a couple billion in the bank?

I just don’t see how this is a bankruptcy year for them.

Re: Tesla Plunges After a Conference Call

#386

Post by sidcool »

The news I dread to hear: "Tesla files for chapter 11".... It almost makes wail.

I wish I had enough money to give Tesla a runway, free of Wall Street scrutiny for a year. But that's not in the spirit of capitalism I guess.

Re: Tesla Plunges After a Conference Call

#387

Post by erikpukinskis »

ubernostrum wrote: post #259
rawrmaan wrote: post #50

Elon has always seemed to have the attitude of "not everyone should invest in this stock". I find this refreshing. God forbid a CEO do anything except try to drive the share price as high as humanly possible. I don't know if this carries the same weight in a public company, but setting expectations with investors is super important in a startup and prevents a ton of wasted time wrangling investors who don't get the t…

You seem to think, and Musk seems to represent, that for most investors, investment is about ensuring each investment, in a vacuum, carries zero risk. Which is not true. Investors want to know about the risks, in detail, because then they can make informed choices. Maybe they'll adjust how much they invest, or look for offsetting investments (other companies or financial instruments that would go up if Tesla goes dow…

Musk is providing accurate information about the company: what they’re spending, what they’re doing, what their plans are.

What he’s not providing is accurate predictions of how long things will take. And he’s not obligated to do.

If investors want to make predictions, that’s their job. The company is only responsible for reporting what it did and what it will do.

Re: Tesla Plunges After a Conference Call

#388

Post by dragonwriter »

erikpukinskis wrote: post #385
greglindahl wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Notice that his response to the Economist is in the form that I said -- the word "need" is present. As for Tesla's targets, they have changed (downwards) several times, and I've seen plenty of people noticing. IIRC the target announced after Q4 earnings was 2,500 Model 3's per week by the end of Q1, and they missed by 500. Honestly, this entire discussion is the kind of thing I'd expect on Seeking Alpha, not Hacker N…

Tesla might raise to accelerate the Semi production line or the Model Y line, but I can’t fathom that’d happen this year. If we’re talking about Model 3, there’s also no way they’ll have unforeseen expenses in Q3/4. It takes way more than 6 months to plan a billion dollar expenditure, so it seems exceedingly unlikely Tesla’s expenditure model is wrong. So that leaves their revenue model as the only wildcard. If they…

> Tesla might raise to accelerate the Semi production line or the Model Y line, but I can’t fathom that’d happen this year.

Even with release of the Model Y pushed out to 2020, if they need money and they aren't raising it this year, it probably means more delays.

Re: Tesla Plunges After a Conference Call

#389

Post by kneel »

xkjkls wrote: post #376
kneel wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I don't think "answering basic questions about the financial health of your company" really should be considered "brown nosing", but to each their own. Tesla has been thoroughly analyzed every which way, moreso than other companies. Really there is no end to the amount of info that Wall St wants, everyone is trying to make a buck and wall st senses the hype. >There aren't billions of dollars out there to be invested…

Tesla’s reporting leaves a lot to be desired. Why wouldn’t Musk release a detailed plan of what is going to materially change in their production goals and capital expenditures over the next sixth months in order to finance their debt? Explain the process for how the make their projections and pronouncements? Explain why it is prudent to invest in multiple new models and production lines when his company is burning t…

This kind of talk is exactly why Elon pulled the plug on the wall st questions.

Society is PLAGUED with people who can't see any subject outside the lens of money. It's all people think about, it's disgusting.

Tesla's CEO is an engineer first and foremost. He doesn't give a s* if a worthless day trader doesn't know how to position. If the company dips into unforeseen debt while ramping up production, whoops.

They're pushing cars that will contribute to a sustainable future, that's what important here.

Tesla will still be fine in the long run. Tesla cars are still high in demand. You still have to wait weeks/months to receive one.

Sorry to all the vampires who don't know how to make a quick buck.

Re: Tesla Plunges After a Conference Call

#390

Post by xkjkls »

kneel wrote: post #389
xkjkls wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla’s reporting leaves a lot to be desired. Why wouldn’t Musk release a detailed plan of what is going to materially change in their production goals and capital expenditures over the next sixth months in order to finance their debt? Explain the process for how the make their projections and pronouncements? Explain why it is prudent to invest in multiple new models and production lines when his company is burning t…

This kind of talk is exactly why Elon pulled the plug on the wall st questions. Society is PLAGUED with people who can't see any subject outside the lens of money. It's all people think about, it's disgusting. Tesla's CEO is an engineer first and foremost. He doesn't give a s * if a worthless day trader doesn't know how to position. If the company dips into unforeseen debt while ramping up production, whoops. They're…

> Society is PLAGUED with people who can't see any subject outside the lens of money. It's all people think about, it's disgusting.

I'm sorry, but when trying to value an investment, or determining whether I should make a loan, I think the lens of money is important. There's a reason people form corporations rather than charities. Corporations are able to fund themselves sustain driving new things year over year. Charities finish when the money runs out.

What is Musk trying to build if it isn't a sustainable corporation?

> Tesla's CEO is an engineer first and foremost. He doesn't give a s* if a worthless day trader doesn't know how to position. If the company dips into unforeseen debt while ramping up production, whoops.

This sort of flippant comment is naive. You don't think the employees whose stock is vesting in the company care about how it is going to be valued or fund itself in the future? If I'm a talented engineer, why should I work for Tesla if the stock the grant me could be worthless in 6 months? Or what about those on the production lines, worrying about whether their factory might close down?

If you care so much about the company's ambition, you should care about their financial situation. Without it, they aren't going to be able to do any real research and development, hire the best talent, or do any of the basic functions necessary to make electric cars in the future.

> They're pushing cars that will contribute to a sustainable future, that's what important here.

If you care about that, you should care about the company actually having a financial plan to achieve those goals.

> Tesla will still be fine in the long run.

Why? Without answering the financial questions I described above, there isn't any way to predict that accurately.

> Tesla cars are still high in demand. You still have to wait weeks/months to receive one.

That's less of an issue with demand than an issue of supply. Tesla is struggling to put out 4000 cars a week, and there's a Ford F-150 sold every minute in the United States.

> Sorry to all the vampires who don't know how to make a quick buck.

I'm sorry you believe that those who care about Tesla's financial situation are just trying "to make a quick buck". To build the future, you first have to fund it.

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