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Facebook Q1 2018 Earnings Slides [pdf]

investor.fb.com

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Re: Facebook Q1 2018 Earnings Slides [pdf]

#81

Post by robotresearcher »

acchow wrote: post #77
scolson wrote: post #33

So wait... In the US, my "value" to facebook is about $100 a year? (~24/q rounded up) Can I subscribe to facebook and opt out of all advertising and any data sharing exposure with third-parties? That is totally worth $8-10/mo to me. Edit: I get it. You don't like this idea, or you don't think it will work, or you don't think facebook's investors will like it (full disclosure: I am one). Why on earth should that stop…

Your "value" to facebook is going up at 25% per year. In 5 years, it should be $24-30/month

And in 50 years it should be $2.3M/month. Unless this growth isn't sustainable...

Re: Facebook Q1 2018 Earnings Slides [pdf]

#82

Post by andrewxhill »

roddux wrote: post #14

My main takeaway from this is that #deleteFacebook has been a flash in the pan-- their active user count is still increasing across all regions. Also to note, FB only pay effectively 11% tax on some 12 billion dollars worth of revenue.

While you are probably right, these numbers only account for the first 10-12 days of #deletefacebook, and those are only a few days over most of a quarter's worth of growth before them.

Re: Facebook Q1 2018 Earnings Slides [pdf]

#83

Post by mbesto »

kgwgk wrote: post #54
adventured wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're tracking to around a likely ~$23 billion in net income for 2018. That's a 20 PE three quarters out. That's for 50% sales growth, 63% net income growth. That's a bargain in this market. Microsoft has hardly net grown its income in a decade and it's sporting a 30 PE; nearly all of their valuation increase the last five years is multiple inflation. Coca Cola has a 30 PE ratio and nearly zero growth for a decade.…

> That's a bargain in this market. When this market changes, some of these companies might suffer more than the others. What is going to happen to advertising budgets (practically their only source of revenue) in the next recession? Facebook also faces higher regulatory and reputational risk (in the US and elsewhere) that most of those companies. But of course compared to Netflix it looks incredibly undervalued! Edit…

> What is going to happen to advertising budgets (practically their only source of revenue) in the next recession

There's a general theory that advertising is a zero-sum game. In other words, as a percent of GDP it has neither grown or subtracted significantly since it's wide spread use. This effectively means that new media (FB/Google/etc) is simply taking market share away from other disparate providers. If anything, a recession will only accelerate that trend. When companies are faced with re-thinking their ad spend and realize that their eyeballs are no longer in print/radio, it serves as an easy to stomach switching cost decision.

[0] - https://stratechery.com/2016/the-reality-of-missing-out/

Re: Facebook Q1 2018 Earnings Slides [pdf]

#84

Post by lotsofpulp »

oedenfield wrote: post #80
komali2 wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought that was the end game originally - reward users with cash for self providing information companies usually need to pay survey companies to get.

Why pay users when they give it to you for free?

Why does Facebook spend money on employees then?

Re: Facebook Q1 2018 Earnings Slides [pdf]

#85

Post by wlamont »

roddux wrote: post #14

My main takeaway from this is that #deleteFacebook has been a flash in the pan-- their active user count is still increasing across all regions. Also to note, FB only pay effectively 11% tax on some 12 billion dollars worth of revenue.

The decline may have a long tail.

I was also blown away at their low effective tax rate.

Re: Facebook Q1 2018 Earnings Slides [pdf]

#86

Post by matte_black »

andrewxhill wrote: post #82
roddux wrote: post #14

My main takeaway from this is that #deleteFacebook has been a flash in the pan-- their active user count is still increasing across all regions. Also to note, FB only pay effectively 11% tax on some 12 billion dollars worth of revenue.

While you are probably right, these numbers only account for the first 10-12 days of #deletefacebook, and those are only a few days over most of a quarter's worth of growth before them.

#DeleteFacebook is not a thing. Anyone who thinks it was going to affect Facebook doesn’t understand the fundamentals behind Facebook. It’s just some meaningless outrage porn for people to hang a hashtag off of and maybe increase their social currency.

This stock is going to be back to its 190 price levels soon enough and anyone who isn’t on board is going to be left with the FOMO.

Re: Facebook Q1 2018 Earnings Slides [pdf]

#87

Post by shadowtree »

alberth wrote: post #12

Slide #3 & #5 are super interesting. US/Canada is ~10% MAU but generates ~50% of the overall revenue. I wonder why US generates so much revenue compared to its small user base

Certain advertising only exists in the US, specifically Pharma DTC ads.

If you remove prescription drug ads from US TV, you'd get a similar picture.

Re: Facebook Q1 2018 Earnings Slides [pdf]

#88

Post by geodel »

scolson wrote: post #33

So wait... In the US, my "value" to facebook is about $100 a year? (~24/q rounded up) Can I subscribe to facebook and opt out of all advertising and any data sharing exposure with third-parties? That is totally worth $8-10/mo to me. Edit: I get it. You don't like this idea, or you don't think it will work, or you don't think facebook's investors will like it (full disclosure: I am one). Why on earth should that stop…

Well I think about 50-100 million users in world would be looking to have paid account. Since those are valuable customers who would definitely not want to have invasive, tracking advertisements and advertisers definitely want to target them. The only way it would work is if FB totally does away with advertising.

With current numbers the way it could work is if those users make annual commitment of at least 500-1000 USD or 200-400 dollars / quarter.

So the users with loud ethical voice and concerns about negative affects of advertising can save the world from this whole tracking business by committing about 1000 dollars a year.

Re: Facebook Q1 2018 Earnings Slides [pdf]

#90

Post by tomc1985 »

roddux wrote: post #14

My main takeaway from this is that #deleteFacebook has been a flash in the pan-- their active user count is still increasing across all regions. Also to note, FB only pay effectively 11% tax on some 12 billion dollars worth of revenue.

Meanwhile the worker bees pay 35-50% in income tax and other withholdings between state and federal. That pisses me off so much
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