Electric Buses Are Hurting the Oil Industry • Hacker News Board

Re: Electric Buses Are Hurting the Oil Industry

#41

Post by dvtv75 » Wed, Apr 25, 2018, 1:43 AM UTC

Endama wrote: post #9

I think few people know that a bunch of public transit was actually electric in the early/mid 20th century. Car companies, most notably GM, conspired to convert public transport to gas to make public transit less comfortable compared to private car ownership[1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_consp...

I remember riding on Dunedin's (New Zealand) Trolley Bus service when I was very small, which were standard bus bodies that were hooked to overhead power lines. I remember the driver hooking the bus back to the power lines. Must have been about '78 or '79.

Re: Electric Buses Are Hurting the Oil Industry

#42

Post by zaroth » Wed, Apr 25, 2018, 1:45 AM UTC

_bxg1 wrote: post #15

Worried as I am about China's authoritarian practices and their growing influence, they sure are effective at solving environmental problems.

You may have missed this point in TFA;

“China is ahead on electrifying its fleet because it has the world’s worst pollution problem. With a growing urban population and galloping energy demand, the nation’s legendary smogs were responsible for 1.6 million extra deaths in 2015, according to non-profit Berkeley Earth.”

It’s great to celebrate progress, but don’t fall for the spin.

A study published in Nature [1] found 3.3 million deaths per year worldwide attributed to air pollution. China owning nearly half that is mind blowing.

The figure for the U.S., by comparison, is 60-80,000. In terms of per capita mortality rate, China’s polution problem is 5x more deadly. [2]

Economics is the study of allocation of scarce resources. China investing more heavily in electrifying their buses is not surprising in the context of a deadly pollution epidemic. The same level of investment into electric buses in the US would be a tradgedy in the sense of actual lives lost due to gross misallocation of public funds.

[1] - https://www.nature.com/articles/nature15371

[2] - (1.6e6 / 1.3e9) / (8e4 / 3.2e8)

Re: Electric Buses Are Hurting the Oil Industry

#43

Post by dvtv75 » Wed, Apr 25, 2018, 1:47 AM UTC

contingencies wrote: post #10

losteric wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are seeing things. China is mentioned because they had the worst pollution problems, seriously invested in electric, and are now realizing the payoff. The numbers support the narrative.

Shenzhen resident here. Every time a large petroleum vehicle goes past I hear it. On the other side of the block there is a bus depot - totally silent - all Shenzhen buses and 50% of taxis are now electric. It's great.

Has there been an improvement in air quality or have the changes been too small to have an impact as yet?

Re: Electric Buses Are Hurting the Oil Industry

#44

Post by contingencies » Wed, Apr 25, 2018, 1:51 AM UTC

dvtv75 wrote: post #43

contingencies wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shenzhen resident here. Every time a large petroleum vehicle goes past I hear it. On the other side of the block there is a bus depot - totally silent - all Shenzhen buses and 50% of taxis are now electric. It's great.

Has there been an improvement in air quality or have the changes been too small to have an impact as yet?

Haven't been here long enough (~12 months) to anecdata that, but it's generally recognized that government policies are increasing air quality rapidly in many major cities. Example policies: routinely spraying water on the roads in dusty areas and near construction sites, banning motorbikes from city centers, banning the import of second hand vehicles, encouraging electric vehicles, moving polluting industries away from population centers, increasing industrial regulation, reducing opportunities and increasing penalties for corruption. I have a German friend who builds air quality monitoring systems for export here and he said that restaurant kitchen air vents are actually one of the worst urban air polluters now. Another is construction. He said India's cities, especially Delhi, are literally off the charts (sensors incapable of registering pollution levels that high) and that, compared to India, China has things well under control.

Re: Electric Buses Are Hurting the Oil Industry

#45

Post by jimmywanger » Wed, Apr 25, 2018, 1:53 AM UTC

_bxg1 wrote: post #15

Worried as I am about China's authoritarian practices and their growing influence, they sure are effective at solving environmental problems.

For some things authoritarianism is very effective at achieving results.

For instance, China's government simply mandated that everybody would start using a simplified writing system that was supposed to increase literacy. And the country.. just sort of went along with it.

Also, iodizing salt is sort of a big deal. Turkmenistan, being a dictatorship, simply declared non-iodized salt illegal and gave out 11 pounds of iodized salt each year to each family, and (presumably) sent out inspectors with iodine testing kits and threats of fines. Kazakhstan, being a democracy, had to cajole its people into accepting the change.

Same thing with China and India. China switched to a remarkably different writing system. I'm guessing that the process went something like "You guys have two years. After that all government forms and mass media will be written in the new system. The schools will all be teaching the new system." Whereas India, which would benefit greatly if they all spoke a mutually intelligible language, is a democracy and will never give up their ancestral languages.

Re: Electric Buses Are Hurting the Oil Industry

#46

Post by Avshalom » Wed, Apr 25, 2018, 2:00 AM UTC

ams6110 wrote: post #18

michaelbuckbee wrote: post #14

The scale of this is astounding and wonderful: "China had about 99 percent of the 385,000 electric buses on the roads worldwide in 2017, accounting for 17 percent of the country’s entire fleet. Every five weeks, Chinese cities add 9,500 of the zero-emissions transporters—the equivalent of London’s entire working fleet, according Bloomberg New Energy Finance."

While electric buses are almost certainly an emissions win compared to the no doubt primitive and dirty Chinese diesel buses, I doubt it is it fair to call them zero-emission? China burns a lot of coal for electrical power.

In addition to the possibility of cleaner power in the future; simply moving the emissions from tailpipes on the street to plants 100km from Beijing or Lagos or Mexico City... Still increases overall life expectancy.

Re: Electric Buses Are Hurting the Oil Industry

#47

Post by veb » Wed, Apr 25, 2018, 2:00 AM UTC

dvtv75 wrote: post #41

Endama wrote: post #9

I think few people know that a bunch of public transit was actually electric in the early/mid 20th century. Car companies, most notably GM, conspired to convert public transport to gas to make public transit less comfortable compared to private car ownership[1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_consp...

I remember riding on Dunedin's (New Zealand) Trolley Bus service when I was very small, which were standard bus bodies that were hooked to overhead power lines. I remember the driver hooking the bus back to the power lines. Must have been about '78 or '79.

I really wish they'd bring back some trams though. A lot of our roads are incredibly wide, they could still have trams going up High Street, thru Caversham etc. I wish Dunedin would spend more effort on public transport - I loved how many people used the buses recently when they had a free day!

Re: Electric Buses Are Hurting the Oil Industry

#48

Post by rmason » Wed, Apr 25, 2018, 2:10 AM UTC

What's sad is that the majority of electric buses being purchased both in America and around the globe aren't manufactured in the US.

We have a Silicon Valley company, Tesla, that kicked off the world-wide move to battery powered autos. Why is there not a US company recognized as the leader in buses?

There are a few California companies on this list but they're tiny. Here in Michigan the leading player is French and they're self-driving as well. I wonder how American manufacturers failed to grab this market. Detroit should have owned this industry.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_electric_bus_makers_an...

Re: Electric Buses Are Hurting the Oil Industry

#49

Post by ChuckMcM » Wed, Apr 25, 2018, 2:11 AM UTC

ams6110 wrote: post #18

michaelbuckbee wrote: post #14

The scale of this is astounding and wonderful: "China had about 99 percent of the 385,000 electric buses on the roads worldwide in 2017, accounting for 17 percent of the country’s entire fleet. Every five weeks, Chinese cities add 9,500 of the zero-emissions transporters—the equivalent of London’s entire working fleet, according Bloomberg New Energy Finance."

While electric buses are almost certainly an emissions win compared to the no doubt primitive and dirty Chinese diesel buses, I doubt it is it fair to call them zero-emission? China burns a lot of coal for electrical power.

That is picking nits :-) Not only is China rapidly building nuclear power plants, containing the emissions of one plant burning coal is easier than containing the emissions of the 10,000 buses that plant provides power to operate.

There is also a benefit to China converting from oil (something imported[1]) to coal (something available locally[2]).

[1] https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Chinas-Becomes-Worlds-...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_in_China

Re: Electric Buses Are Hurting the Oil Industry

#50

Post by i_feel_great » Wed, Apr 25, 2018, 2:17 AM UTC

dvtv75 wrote: post #41

Endama wrote: post #9

I think few people know that a bunch of public transit was actually electric in the early/mid 20th century. Car companies, most notably GM, conspired to convert public transport to gas to make public transit less comfortable compared to private car ownership[1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_consp...

I remember riding on Dunedin's (New Zealand) Trolley Bus service when I was very small, which were standard bus bodies that were hooked to overhead power lines. I remember the driver hooking the bus back to the power lines. Must have been about '78 or '79.

I remember them in Auckland at about the same time. Every trip it would lose the contact with the overhead lines and the driver would get out with his stick and move it back. I also remember for the being very quiet, except for a quiet hum and whine inside. And they accelerated very fast.