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How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

theweek.com

141–150 of 167 posts

Re: How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

#141
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the fund loses a lot of money This isn't equivocally true. It all depends on how levered the investment is and how much debt they pulled off the books to pay back the banks (or their fund). The stereotypical PE fund looks like this: buy company for $100M with 50% debt and 50% equity. Meaning, investment banks give them $50M to buy the company at market rates and the PE firm spends the other $50M from their fund. Lo…

> The LPs are super diversified, so that's irrelevant Losing a dollar is losing a dollar, diversified or not. The investors in these PE funds lost money. Where they net out against other investments is irrelevant. > GPs make their base salary from management fees and their bonus from carry on the return of the fund Salary, yes. But good luck earning any carry on this fund. (They'll be lucky if DPI crosses 1x with a h…

> But good luck earning any carry on this fund.

Again, depends on who's left with the debt...the typical large cap PE playbook is to hand the debt off to the company, while the PE firm and the senior debt have been paid off by the time the company gets liquidated. I haven't reviewed all of the financials and the SEC filings, but normally if you're levered at 63%, then it's likely they were able to pay off the equity in short order.

See case study here: https://d1ge0kk1l5kms0.cloudfront.net/images/G/01/books/stec...

Another trend that was gaining popularity in the private equity industry involved rapidly accessing the capital markets after closing a deal to raise cash to pay a large dividend to the private equity owners. Firms typically used the debt markets to finance these dividends, creating more highly levered, riskier companies. In some cases, dividends paid to private equity firms within one year of their original investment equaled the original equity commitment. In the Hertz LBO transaction, Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, Carlyle Group, and Merrill Lynch collected $1 billion in bank-funded dividends six months after buying rental car company Hertz for $15 billion.6 About four months later, Hertz issued an IPO to pay off the debt and to fund an additional dividend, resulting in total dividends paid to the owners that equaled 54 percent of their original investment of $2.3 billion (still leaving them with 71 percent ownership). Private equity funds also took cash out of their portfolio companies to pay large “advisory” fees to themselves. These fees exceeded $50 million on large transactions during the buyout phase and annual fees often continued throughout their ownership.

In that same article they mention Toyr R Us had ~$600M in EBITDA in 2005 in which they could have easily paid off at the initial $1.3B that the PE firms put up in equity financing. They also paid 9x (!!!!) EBITDA for a Retailer....that's a ridiculous multiple with highly unlikely outcomes for multiple expansion. So you only have three options (1) debt pump and dump (2) consolidate the back-office (3) buy add-ons.

This is all leads me to believe that the real suckers in this whole thing are the current debtors. Pure speculation on my side, but I really believe that Toys R Us was already on it's way out (e.g. Amazon). Bain/KKR trying to find deal flow where none could be found, figured they had two viable intertwined paths (1) try to sell it to Amazon (2) load it up with so much debt that if they couldn't sell it to Amazon, they wouldn't lose money if they paid themselves back before it went into bankruptcy.

Capitalists place bets in things that go down too.

PS - 1x DPI ain't terrible in a seller's market (which it has been for large cap in the last 10 years). I'm not sure what KKR or Bain fund this deal came out of, but the real truth will be in there.

Re: How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

#142
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would it? Has "control costs" ever worked out as a viable long term strategy in a business that is rapidly losing market share to a sea-change in competitors?

AMD's stock was under $3 when this article was published, in Oct 2014. Today it is over $10. https://www.wsj.com/articles/overheard-amd-cutting-costs-141...

Good point, although that wouldn't have meant anything if they kept plodding along with the Bulldozer family. Cut costs + bring new Ryzen chips to market, both parts were needed.

Re: How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

#143

> if Bain, KKR, and Vornado had never come along, Toys 'R' Us wouldn't be doing stellar, but it probably could've muddled through I'm rarely a defender of leveraged buy-outs, but in this case, I think it was a good thing. Private investors took a moribund business and attempted a turnaround. If they succeeded, everybody would have won. If they failed, a long and tortured slide into irrelevance got aborted and cut sho…

Who's "everyone" in this case? Private equity? They get almost all of the windfall and limited downsides. Most of the risk is borne on the company itself, creditors, and especially workers. These hail Mary's may have a little more use if the moral hazard weren't so blatant, and the rewards and risks more appropriately distributed.

Equity holders, by definition, have unlimited downside.

Re: How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

#144
post #77
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Poorly performing companies going out of business in order for new, better companies to flourish is a necessary step for the creation of a healthy job market.

It probably feels very good to type a comment like that while imagining some invisible force gently guiding these newly unemployed people to their new careers. However in reality thousands of people have now lost their income and likely their health insurance, and will have to compete in what in many places is a pretty brutal and not at all healthy job market. It sucks, and there’s nothing you or I can do about it ..…

Economics isn't something you can just fabricate an opinion on. There are countless academics who have actually studied the labor market who would correct you if you would spend any time trying to learn rather than pontificate. This isn't subjective.

Re: How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

#145
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> early failure really is worse for both society and the companies workers The assets don't disappear. They're just being re-purposed earlier. Toys 'R' Us locations nationwide are being purchased and turned into new, arguably more-useful, things.

Are you sure about that? When big box stores fail they often sit empty for years causing blight in the area.

I'd wager that has more to do with bankruptcy than with the markets inability to repurpose those assets. Additionally, if the reason they failed is because of a drop in foot traffic in the area, then it makes sense they aren't easily repurposed.

Regardless, the capital that would otherwise be invested in this poorly performing enterprise is now invested somewhere else, so everyone is better off.

Re: How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

#146
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, seriously, the author is nuts. I've got a 5-year old and I can't remember the last time I've been to Toys R Us. She knows how to pick stuff out on Amazon; for trinkets there's Target, and a lot of her "toys" now are on her iPad/digital. Suburban big-box retail stores aren't a growth area, and toy stores selling Chinese-made junk are probably among the worst situated. Unlike, e.g. clothes or food, there is littl…

A problem is that in a retail store, you might walk by something new and want to try it. On Amazon et al you're largely going to stick with what you know, and the site's recommendations are probably not going to stray much. Additionally, walking out of a store with something is a nice experience, maybe reading the manual on the way home, instead of waiting a week to get something unless you have prime or pay for fast…

> the site's recommendations are probably not going to stray much

On the other hand, a toy store is stocked only with management's recommendations. They're not fools, either, they only stock what they expect to sell well - mainstream, right down the center products.

Re: How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

#147
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you buy toys? Amazon is almost always the most expensive retailer.

What is less expensive than Amazon?

Pretty much anything as compared to Target, Walmart or ToysRUs.

Plus, you’re less likely to get counterfeit product, and at Christmas you lose the risk of fulfillment fubar.

Re: How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

#148
post #46

So they took a Company with 2.2b cash and cash equivalents private with just 1.3b of their own money. Man I need to network with gullible bankers too

There's nothing gullible about this kind of lending. LBOs are announced daily and cutting a 20-30% equity check is very common.

Most of the time people make money on them -- sometimes a lot of money, if the timing, the target, and the fit is right. This wasn't one of such cases.

Re: How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you've described doesn't sound like a value-add at all to me. In stores they can manipulate your senses to get you to make emotion-based purchases whether or not it makes economic sense or if you're going to actually get your money's worth out of the product. You only think it's better reading the manual on the way home and not waiting a few days because you're still riding that emotional high. I much prefer the…

Do you really think you're not being manipulated by Amazon? "Frequently bought together", fake reviews based on free samples in exchange for "honest opinions" (hah!), gold box deals with countdowns to artificial deadlines, "people also shopped for", add-on items, "recommendations for you", free shipping when you spend at least $X, discounts calculated from inflated retail prices, "your shopping history" going back 10…

Stores optimize layout, colors, ambient music, the checkout process (ever see the rack of stuff right by the cash register?), too. They even pump fragrances into the store.

There's enormous effort expended on this by stores - because it works.

Re: How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

#150
post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AMD's stock was under $3 when this article was published, in Oct 2014. Today it is over $10. https://www.wsj.com/articles/overheard-amd-cutting-costs-141...

Good point, although that wouldn't have meant anything if they kept plodding along with the Bulldozer family. Cut costs + bring new Ryzen chips to market, both parts were needed.

Of course... the cost-cutting just stops/reduces the bleeding, extending the company's runway so that it can survive longer without running out of cash. The company still has to come up with a new product or strategy, in AMD's case it was Ryzen.
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