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How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

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Re: How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

#81
post #77
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Poorly performing companies going out of business in order for new, better companies to flourish is a necessary step for the creation of a healthy job market.

It probably feels very good to type a comment like that while imagining some invisible force gently guiding these newly unemployed people to their new careers. However in reality thousands of people have now lost their income and likely their health insurance, and will have to compete in what in many places is a pretty brutal and not at all healthy job market. It sucks, and there’s nothing you or I can do about it ..…

The job market is actually pretty healthy right now. Unemployment is nearing a 45 year low and prime age labor force participation rate has been on the upswing for about 3 years. We're also starting to see some growth in wages which is nice.

And sure, it's weird to contrast a theory of firm destruction being necessary for a vibrant economy with the reality of individuals you can point to losing their jobs but the fact remains that doesn't really distract from the truth of my statements. Just because it's a bit harder to point at specific individuals who will benefit from the demise of Toys R Us doesn't mean the link isn't real.

Re: How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

#82
post #35
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, what are you looking for? Rich people get one shot at doing something, and if they fail, the government comes riding in and takes all their stuff? You have to be careful when you get vindictive at rich people; they're also the employers, and it's hard to build a system where such people aren't "the rich". (If you hard-core leveled everyone in the world to equal wealth, nobody would be able to employ anybody else…

OK, what are you looking for? Rich people get one shot at doing something, and if they fail, the government comes riding in and takes all their stuff? I can't speak for the person you replied to, but how about this? Less downside for the workers. We're talking about thousands of people losing their jobs. These people then go into a smaller labour market where they compete with other vulnerable retail workers, affecti…

"We're talking about thousands of people losing their jobs. These people then go into a smaller labour market where they compete with other vulnerable retail workers, affecting far more people."

Expand your time horizon a bit. Having freed up the malinvested resources, other enterprises will arise which will hire them, at jobs that are now almost by definition more solid than the one they left behind, since the one they left behind couldn't sustain itself.

"But what if they can't wait around?" They don't necessarily have to. The job market is not so tight that one job has to instantly open up as soon as one person is fired. There is some fluidity in it. The only place there will be any particular trouble would be around the HQ of Toys R Us; the individual stores are going to be in economies where the store going out of business is just a tiny blip hardly affecting the local retail employment environment.

"But what about the permanently unemployed?" Well, if you're used to the "new normal", be sure to have a look at the current unemployment trends before getting too far into that sort of argument.

And you have to consider the flip side as well. What if you got to go to work for Toys R Us, and it was guaranteed that you would be employed indefinitely there no matter how badly things went for Toys R Us? Sweet deal, right? Well, sure, but it's not going to be unique to Toys R Us, right? It's going to be the deal for everybody. We've got experience with what that "sweet deal" produces; read about the Soviet Union's economy. Would you rather have to find a new job every so often and live in the US, or be stuck in the Soviet Union? We don't have to hypothesize the answer to that; people are still falling over themselves to get into the US.

It is vital that people understand that creative destruction trades some short-term inconvenience for massive long term wins, lest we foolishly legislate short-term conveniences for massive long-term losses because we collectively stopped understanding the full story.

Re: How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

#83

TOY shares had fallen from $40 to the low teens by 2004. By announcing a sale of the toy business, the stock rebounded and ultimately the sale to private equity closed at $26.75 per share. That Board knew they had a declining asset on their hands and sold out, at a large premium, rather than watching their equity slowly decline over the next decade. Anyone who despises private equity should be celebrating this story,…

Huh? Did Bain use its own money to buy Toys R Us? No, it was a leveraged buyout. They already made a profit on the transaction. The losers were Toys R Us employees and customers and the banks who provided the loans.

Yes, it used it's own money - the buyout companies came up with 20% of the purchase price (think of the 20% like a downpayment on a house; they borrowed the other 80%; like getting a mortgage). They lost a lot of $. They couldn't "flip" it and resell / IPO the company in this case, hence no profit.

Re: How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

#84

Is there any analysis of leveraged buyouts over the last x years? Rather than selecting the ones that end in disaster. For example the Dell buyout [1] doesn't seem to have caused a catastrophe yet. Purely anecdotally, but I am typing this on a Dell desktop and regularly use a Dell laptop and I am very happy with both, I am particularly happy with their Linux support. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dell#2013_buyout

you can't compare the buyout of dell with toys 'R' us. I mean he actually got a 75% stake out of the buyout which means that he actually used a lot of his own cash to close the deal. Also after two years he could double the value of Dell. Something that is just amazing. In 2015 he bought EMC and made the biggest tech mergers in history. Dell now has 140.000 employees and has a revenue of like 60 billion annualy.

I mean it's way harder to die if you combine dell, emc, pivotal, rsa and vmware...

Re: How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

#85

TOY shares had fallen from $40 to the low teens by 2004. By announcing a sale of the toy business, the stock rebounded and ultimately the sale to private equity closed at $26.75 per share. That Board knew they had a declining asset on their hands and sold out, at a large premium, rather than watching their equity slowly decline over the next decade. Anyone who despises private equity should be celebrating this story,…

I think you may have missed the part where Toys 'R' Us' debt skyrocketed from $109M to $5B due to the leveraged buyout. The interest on that debt as well as the exorbitant management fees did Toys 'R' Us in.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-09/toys-r-us...

Re: How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

#86
post #75
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see it. Working at Toys R Us may not have been great, fine, but it sure beats pissing in bottles in a sweltering/freezing Amazon warehouse. Amazon is a lot more profitable than Toys R Us ever was but that doesn't mean they make the job market, let alone society, healthier.

I bet you spend more money at Amazon than you did at Toys R Us. You might not see it, but your wallet does.

Yes, and I can complain about sweatshops in India and Bangladesh without foregoing clothes. Appeals to hypocrisy are the weakest sort of argument.

Re: How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Huh? Did Bain use its own money to buy Toys R Us? No, it was a leveraged buyout. They already made a profit on the transaction. The losers were Toys R Us employees and customers and the banks who provided the loans.

> Did Bain use its own money to buy Toys R Us? No, it was a leveraged buyout. They already made a profit on the transaction. Bain et al lost over a billion dollars. Not only did they invest the equity, they also loaned some of the debt out of their own funds.

They also charged exorbitant management fees. It seems at least possible that they didn't actually lose money on the deal. Being a private company, it might be hard to find out how much cash they extracted from Toys 'R' Us.

Re: How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

#88
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who's "everyone" in this case? Private equity? They get almost all of the windfall and limited downsides. Most of the risk is borne on the company itself, creditors, and especially workers. These hail Mary's may have a little more use if the moral hazard weren't so blatant, and the rewards and risks more appropriately distributed.

limited downsides It's worth noting that the PE firms involved in the deal lost over a billion dollars on their investment in this case.

We don't actually know how it worked out for them, because reportedly they spent twelve years siphoning off cash from Toys 'R' Us.

Re: How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

#89
post #86
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bet you spend more money at Amazon than you did at Toys R Us. You might not see it, but your wallet does.

Yes, and I can complain about sweatshops in India and Bangladesh without foregoing clothes. Appeals to hypocrisy are the weakest sort of argument.

It was not intended an appeal to hypocrisy. It was demonstrating that a lot of people (including you and me) get a tremendous amount of value out of Amazon and society is healthier as a result.

Re: How vulture capitalists ate Toys 'R' Us

#90

TOY shares had fallen from $40 to the low teens by 2004. By announcing a sale of the toy business, the stock rebounded and ultimately the sale to private equity closed at $26.75 per share. That Board knew they had a declining asset on their hands and sold out, at a large premium, rather than watching their equity slowly decline over the next decade. Anyone who despises private equity should be celebrating this story,…

I think you may have missed the part where Toys 'R' Us' debt skyrocketed from $109M to $5B due to the leveraged buyout. The interest on that debt as well as the exorbitant management fees did Toys 'R' Us in. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-09/toys-r-us...

While I agree with you with respect to the over-leveraging of the business, management fees are charged to the LPs (Investors) of the fund and not portfolio companies.
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