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Underestimating the mind-warping potential of fake video

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Re: Underestimating the mind-warping potential of fake video

#81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have front page stories in the NYT, WSJ et al that hinge entirely on 'unnamed sources' '[gov org] senior officials' and 'people familiar with the matter'. Video should be easy because it's either real or it's not. For stories based on secret sources, we never get a chance to ask the source if they really said that.

Yes, and the NYT, WSJ, and many others, have an excellent track record of only publishing stories that hinge on "unnamed sources" "senior officials" and "people familiar with the matter" when they should. They are asking me to trust them that, if I knew who their sources were, that I would trust their sources. As journalists, they ask that I believe them that they have confirmed the matter through multiple independen…

>We used to have to contend with dishonest people editing context out

Any reporter relying on unnamed sources is selectively editing context out, whether complicity or not. It's the price you pay for access.

Re: Underestimating the mind-warping potential of fake video

#82
post #41

There's a relevant and insightful thread on Twitter posted by David Roberts here: https://twitter.com/drvox/status/988144274720964608 His thread references the "debate" over climate change, and his point is that the debate most people participate in isn't truly a debate over facts, but rather a debate over trust. That matters of complexity are too distant from any one individual to have direct exposure-to, so in orde…

> "His thread references the "debate" over climate change, and his point is that the debate most people participate in isn't truly a debate over facts, but rather a debate over trust..." Spot on. What the more purely science-mind can't seem to grasp is facts are only as good as the receivers' trust of the source. The irony is, there's plenty of science to support this. Yet, ironically, science too ignores itself. If…

[deleted]

Re: Underestimating the mind-warping potential of fake video

#83
One point that is often lost on the discussions of fake video/"deepfake" is that this development won't only make it easier to fool people into believing something that's made up, but it might also make people more distrustful of things which are actually true.

When it's been spread out enough that anything can be doctored to an indistinguishable extent, everything becomes deniable by those being caught, and the skepticism explosion is going to raise the bar for investigative journalism / actual evidence to standards high enough that few will have the resources to produce them.

Re: Underestimating the mind-warping potential of fake video

#84
I've been afraid of this for years.

I guarantee you that there exist (or will exist) highly profitable consultancies which specialize in faking evidence. Just think about how easy it would be to launder a million here, a million there, disguised as legal fees in some of these large cases.

We're approaching the limits of the traditional legal system with human juries. I don't how to solve this in the long term. I'll speculate that the solution will involve blockchains and a new, more minimal, totally decentralized legal system.

Re: Underestimating the mind-warping potential of fake video

#85
post #84

I've been afraid of this for years. I guarantee you that there exist (or will exist) highly profitable consultancies which specialize in faking evidence. Just think about how easy it would be to launder a million here, a million there, disguised as legal fees in some of these large cases. We're approaching the limits of the traditional legal system with human juries. I don't how to solve this in the long term. I'll s…

> I'll speculate that the solution will involve blockchains and a new, more minimal, totally decentralized legal system.

ok

Re: Underestimating the mind-warping potential of fake video

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> matters of complexity are too distant from any one individual to have direct exposure-to But in the case of climate change anyone over thirty-five or so knows damn well the weather has gone funny. People are scared, way deep down where it's hard to think about, because they know on a cellular billion-year-old level that you cannot escape the weather. Once you grasp that, climate denialism is an obvious coping mecha…

>But in the case of climate change anyone over thirty-five or so knows damn well the weather has gone funny. A very similar logic leads people to conclude "it was cold last week, so global warming is nonsense". Being able to understand the scientific case for climate change requires a level of scientific literacy and critical thinking that most people could readily develop, but isn't taught in schools.

It's not logic even slightly.

Multicellular organisms have internal mechanisms to track environmental changes and forecast things like how many offspring to have.

This sort of "thinking" isn't neurological, it takes place in epigenetic systems that can span generations, especially in mammals due to gestation.

Re: Underestimating the mind-warping potential of fake video

#87
I'm seeing a lot of comments along the lines of "We have fake images and fake news, how is this any different?", as well as "It's not like we could trust everything before, this doesn't really change anything".

While both of those are true, they neglect two important details: 1) Fake videos are much more realistic than fake images, in the same way that fake images are much more realistic than fake text, and thus more believable 2) A large fraction of the population doesn't fact check anything and believes most anything that is spread around the internet, the logic being "if this many people viewed it and liked/reacted/shared this, it's probably true"

I want to believe that we, as a society, have learned our lesson about fake news from the recent US presidential election, as well as Brexit. But I doubt it.

Re: Underestimating the mind-warping potential of fake video

#88
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Anyone can write an article and sign it "Barack Obama," and post it online somewhere. Not many folks will fall for it. That's just stunningly naive. Imagine if Pizzagate or some other such nonsense was accompanied by a video of Podesta mumbling something about sex slaves. Fake News is a a real thing even without video corroboration. > Naked video files, found at random places on the Internet, You honestly think Bre…

No matter how much you disagree with FOX, it's in their best interest to make damn sure they never print "fake text" or play "fake videos" on their platforms.

https://www.google.com/search?q=fox+news+misleading+graphs

Re: Underestimating the mind-warping potential of fake video

#89
post #84

I've been afraid of this for years. I guarantee you that there exist (or will exist) highly profitable consultancies which specialize in faking evidence. Just think about how easy it would be to launder a million here, a million there, disguised as legal fees in some of these large cases. We're approaching the limits of the traditional legal system with human juries. I don't how to solve this in the long term. I'll s…

I was thinking blockchain as well, but as a source of truth.

Imagine if all information on the web was spidered and added to a blockchain, then as new details emerge, those would be appended to the original data. So when someone fakes a video, the original video could/would get appended to the fake, along with the source of the fake, its financial connections to propagandists, etc etc etc. The problem will eventually become sifting signal from noise, because the "proof" will be everywhere.

I still believe that in the light of full information, most people will come to see the truth. That depends on a lot of things though, like being educated, like having the time away from work and family commitments to ponder the deeper questions of life, like understanding the difference between deductive reasoning and dogma, etc. These are all things that authoritarians work tirelessly to take away.

I guess what I'm saying is that the problem will become political, not technological.

Re: Underestimating the mind-warping potential of fake video

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Informed voter" Ha! An oxymoron that Socrates would have chided you for. :)

Y'en a pas un sur cent et pourtant ils existent.

Sure, but we vote with majority of uninformed voters.

So democracy has to relegate information to second place, and rely on emotion and narrative to motivate voters.

This doesn't mean democratic leaders can't separate campaign from implementation ( campaign on emotive issues, deliver substantive ones ), but it does make the whole trajectory subject to the gravitational downward pull of fickle/merit-less but emotionally compelling issues.

Hence democracies demonstrated inability to deliver long-term plans and rapid large changes. But technocracy beats democracy there -- there they really care about information at the state planning level.

Hence, say what you want about China's media/mass PR exercise, but look at their results. Go and see them for yourself.

Their system kills a democratic system for delivering large meaningful changes.

And just ask FB. If FB was democratic, instead of autocratic/technocratic/data driven you really think they would be where they are now?

So why insist on it in government then, and pretend you are all so clever / right for doing so?

Seems to me you're just selling yourselves short-changed future in exchange for short-term feeling good about yourselves.

A poor and stupid bargain. But one you are happy with. Why? That's the question to investigate. The why. I think you've been sold on the idea of democracy because it's simply an effective means of keeping you all under control, and of maintaining the status quo so that nothing much ever changes -- and of amplifying and concentrating power in the unaccountable / secret / deep part of the state. You "feel" you have a voice, they give you an outlet, so you do nothing to uprise against it. Very effective control.

The architects of this idea must be laughing to see you all defending your system of bondage so hard. Socrates surely is laughing at you, too.

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